堪萨斯城联邦储备银行的制造业生产指数在2025年1月比上月下降了3个点，降至-9，为2024年9月以来的最低水平。最新数据显示，地区工厂活动温和收缩，标志着连续第三个月下降。这是由于材料库存（-11比12月的0）和成品（2比5）大幅下降。新订单继续下降，但速度较慢（-6比-16）。

The Kansas City Fed’s Manufacturing Production Index fell by three points from the previous month to -9 in January 2025, the lowest level since September 2024. The latest data revealed a modest contraction in regional factory activity, marking the third consecutive month of decline. This was driven by a sharper drop in materials inventories (-11 vs. 0 in December) and finished goods (2 vs. 5). New orders continued to decline, though at a slower pace (-6 vs. -16).

美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在达沃斯论坛上发表讲话，重点讨论能源政策，WTI原油价格跌至每桶75美元。特朗普强调了他早期的行政行动，包括宣布国家能源紧急状态以“释放我们脚下的流动黄金”，并优先考虑美国的石油和天然气开发。他吹捧退出巴黎气候协议和废除他所谓的“绿色新骗局”等措施，强调能源发展是他政府降低消费者成本计划的基石。与此同时，美国石油协会的数据显示，上周美国原油库存增加了100万桶，燃料库存也急剧增加，官方数据尚未公布。市场对特朗普的潜在政策举措仍持谨慎态度，包括针对中国、加拿大和墨西哥的关税威胁，以及对俄罗斯的额外制裁。作为回应，由于预计可能征收关税，加拿大对美国的石油出口激增。

WTI crude oil slipped to $75 per barrel as US President Donald Trump addressed the Davos forum, focusing on energy policy. Trump highlighted his early executive actions, including declaring a national energy emergency to "unlock the liquid gold under our feet" and prioritizing US oil and gas development. He touted steps such as withdrawing from the Paris climate agreement and repealing what he called the “green new scam,” emphasizing energy development as a cornerstone of his administration's plans to lower consumer costs. Meanwhile, data from the American Petroleum Institute showed a 1 million-barrel increase in US crude inventories last week, along with a sharp rise in fuel stockpiles, with official figures still pending. Markets remain cautious about Trump’s potential policy moves, including tariff threats targeting China, Canada, and Mexico, as well as additional sanctions on Russia. In response, Canadian oil shipments to the US have surged in anticipation of possible tariffs.

美元走低，首次申请失业救济人数上升：欧元/美元、英镑/美元、美元/加元、美元/日元分析。美元指数正在向108.00水平回落。

U.S. Dollar Moves Lower As Initial Jobless Claims Rise: Analysis For EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY.U.S. Dollar Index is moving back towards the 108.00 level.

受供应担忧的推动，橡胶期货价格继续攀升，超过每公斤198美分，达到2024年12月中旬以来的最高水平。泰国是世界领先的橡胶生产国，正面临恶劣的天气条件，当局警告称，大雨可能会导致山洪暴发，扰乱天然橡胶生产。与此同时，越南橡胶协会（VRA）对2025年该行业的前景持乐观态度，预计出口收入将以10%的年增长率增长至110亿美元以上。新加坡的贸易商还注意到中国买家的强劲实物需求。此外，新加坡的贸易商注意到中国经销商的强劲需求，预计中国不断扩大的汽车行业将继续推动橡胶消费。

Rubber futures continued their climb, surpassing 198 cents per kilogram to reach their highest level since mid-December 2024, driven by renewed supply concerns. Thailand, the world’s leading producer, is facing adverse weather conditions, with authorities warning of heavy rains that could cause flash floods and disrupt natural rubber production. Meanwhile, the Vietnam Rubber Association (VRA) is optimistic about the industry’s prospects for 2025, forecasting a 10% annual growth in export revenue to over $11 billion. Traders in Singapore also noted robust physical demand from Chinese buyers. In addition, traders in Singapore noted solid demand from Chinese dealers, and China’s expanding automotive sector is expected to continue fueling rubber consumption.