墨西哥比索兑美元汇率升至19.97，从3月31日的近一个月低点20.47反弹，这得益于美国总统特朗普宣布的更广泛的互惠关税豁免。这种排除使墨西哥相对于中国、欧盟和日本等主要贸易伙伴具有比较优势，这些国家都面临着高额的关税，减少了贸易的不确定性，增强了投资者的信心。随着企业寻求受关税影响地区的替代方案，这也增强了人们对近岸作业的期望。此外，尽管一些贸易担忧持续存在，如对墨西哥汽车出口的关税，但墨西哥进入美国市场的总体前景仍然稳定。再加上高利率带来的强劲套利交易吸引力，这继续支持比索升值。与此同时，由于对经济放缓的担忧，美元正在走弱，这反映在ISM服务业采购经理人指数急剧下降至九个月低点，以及对经济衰退的担忧加剧。
The Mexican peso strengthened toward 19.97 per USD, rebounding from a near one-month low of 20.47 on March 31st, driven by its exemption from the broader reciprocal tariffs announced by U.S. President Trump. This exclusion gives Mexico a comparative advantage over major trading partners like China, the EU, and Japan, all of which face steep levies, reducing trade uncertainty and bolstering investor confidence. It also reinforced expectations for nearshoring, as businesses seek alternatives to tariff-affected regions. Additionally, while some trade concerns persist—such as tariffs on Mexican auto exports—the broader outlook for Mexico’s access to the U.S. market remains stable. Coupled with its strong carry trade appeal due to high interest rates, this continues to support the peso’s appreciation. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar is weakening amid concerns over an economic slowdown, reflected in a sharp decline in the ISM services PMI to a nine-month low and rising recession fears.
