墨西哥10年期国债 (Mexico10Y) 加自选

由于投资者处理了最新的通胀数据并评估了墨西哥银行的货币政策前景，墨西哥比索兑美元汇率跌破20.14，接近12月18日的月度低点20.37。尽管墨西哥12月上半月的整体通胀率同比放缓至4.44%，但仍超出预期，高于央行3%的目标。此外，核心通胀率意外升至3.62%，停止了六周的下跌，表明经济内部持续存在价格压力。此外，Banxico最近将基准利率下调25个基点至10%，符合市场预期。尽管此次降息与通胀降温的预测一致，预计到年底将达到4.6%，但央行预测通胀要到2026年中期才会恢复到3%的目标，这带来了额外的不确定性，影响了投资者的信心。

The Mexican peso weakened past 20.14 per US dollar, nearing the monthly low of 20.37 seen on December 18th, as investors processed the latest inflation data and assessed the Bank of Mexico’s monetary policy outlook. While Mexico’s headline inflation moderated to 4.44% year-on-year in the first half of December, it exceeded expectations and remained above the central bank's 3% target. Furthermore, core inflation unexpectedly rose to 3.62%, halting a six-week decline and indicating persistent price pressures within the economy. Additionally, Banxico recently lowered its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 10%, in line with market expectations. Although this rate cut aligns with forecasts of cooling inflation, expected to reach 4.6% by year-end, the central bank's projection that inflation will not return to the 3% target until mid-2026 has introduced additional uncertainty, weighing on investor confidence.

2024年10月，墨西哥的经济活动比上一年增长了0.7%，高于上个月的0.3%，标志着墨西哥经济连续第四个经济增长期。这一时期的扩张完全是由服务业推动的，在专业、科学和技术服务（19.9%）激增以及零售活动（6.5%）和运输和仓储（4.3%）急剧增长的情况下，服务业总体增长了2.7%。反过来，采矿（-6.9%）、建筑（-8.5%）和农业（-9.5%）的活动也出现了收缩。与上月相比，经季节性调整后，墨西哥的经济活动下降了0.7%。

Economic activity in Mexico rose by 0.7% from the previous year in October of 2024, picking up from the 0.3% increase in the previous month to mark the fourth consecutive period of economic growth in the Mexican economy. The expansion in the period was solely driven by services, which expanded by 2.7% on the aggregate amid a surge for professional, scientific, and technical services (19.9%), and sharp rises for retail activity (6.5%) and transportation and warehousing (4.3%). In turn, activity contracted for mining (-6.9%), construction (-8.5%), and agriculture (-9.5%). From the previous month, economic activity in Mexico sank by 0.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis.

2024年11月，墨西哥的贸易逆差为1.33亿美元，与2023年同月的5.61亿美元顺差相反。进口同比增长5.1%，达到521.6亿美元。非石油进口增长6.7%，而石油进口下降15.8%。按类型划分，中间产品进口增长6.5%，资本货物增长3.3%，消费品下降0.2%。与此同时，出口总额为520.3亿美元，其中非石油出口496.4亿美元（同比增长4.0%），石油出口23.8亿美元（下降2.7%）。对美国的非石油出口增长了4.4%，而对其他市场的出口增长了1.8%。累计来看，2024年前11个月的贸易逆差从2023年同期的97.3亿美元收窄至107.8亿美元。

Mexico recorded a trade deficit of $133 million in November 2024, reversing from a $561 million surplus in the same month of 2023. Imports rose 5.1% year-on-year to $52.16 billion. Non-oil imports grew 6.7%, while oil imports dropped 15.8%. By type, imports of intermediate goods rose 6.5%, capital goods increased 3.3%, and consumer goods fell 0.2%. Meanwhile, exports totaled $52.03 billion, including $49.64 billion in non-oil exports (up 4.0% year-on-year) and $2.38 billion in oil exports (down 2.7%). Non-oil exports to the US rose 4.4%, while those to other markets increased 1.8%. Cumulatively, the trade deficit narrowed to $10.78 billion in the first 11 months of 2024 from $9.73 billion in the same period of 2023.

墨西哥比索兑美元汇率超过20.2，从12月18日的月度低点20.37回升，因为美元在低于预期的核心个人消费支出数据后走弱。这引发了人们对通货紧缩的希望，增强了人们对美联储进一步降息的预期，这进一步得到了美国国内生产总值和失业救济申请数据的支持。与此同时，墨西哥银行将利率下调25个基点至10%，与投资者预期一致。此次降息是在墨西哥通胀降温之际进行的，Banxico预计来年将进一步放松，因为预计到年底通胀将降至4.6%，尽管预计要到2026年中期才能达到3%的目标。

The Mexican peso strengthened past 20.2 per US dollar, recovering from the monthly low of 20.37 seen on December 18, as the US dollar weakened following softer-than-expected Core PCE data. This prompted hopes of disinflation, bolstering expectations for additional rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, further supported by positive US GDP and jobless claims data. Meanwhile, the Bank of Mexico cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 10%, aligning with investor expectations. This rate reduction comes amid cooling inflation in Mexico, with Banxico projecting further easing in the coming year amid forecasts of inflation cooling to 4.6% by year-end, though it does not anticipate reaching its 3% target until mid-2026.