波罗的海交易所的干散货海运指数追踪运载干散货商品的船舶的运价，周四连续第八个交易日下跌，下跌69点，至2023年2月以来的新低，为824点，原因是本月晚些时候中国农历假期前的季节性需求下降。反映运输铁矿石和煤炭等货物的大型船舶运价的好望角型油轮运价指数下跌155点，至五周多来的低点1081点；巴拿马型油轮指数下降39点，至2020年6月以来的最低水平，为804点，该指数通常与运载6万至7万吨煤炭或粮食的船舶有关。在较小的船只中，supramax指数下跌20点，跌至2023年2月以来的新低，为654点。

The Baltic Exchange's dry bulk sea freight index, which tracks rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities, was down for an eighth consecutive session on Thursday, falling 69 points to a new low since February 2023 at 824 points, amid seasonal lower demand ahead of China's Lunar Holiday later in the month. The capesize index, reflecting rates for large vessels transporting cargoes like iron ore and coal, slumped 155 points to an over five-week low of 1,081 points; and the panamax index, typically associated with ships carrying 60,000-70,000 tons of coal or grain, dropped 39 points to its lowest since June 2020 at 804 points. Among smaller vessels, the supramax index shed 20 points to a fresh low since February 2023 at 654 points.

周四，10年期美国国债收益率升至6.65%大关，延续了前两个交易日近三周低点4.58%的反弹，因为市场继续评估美国总统特朗普的政策承诺可能如何影响宏观经济背景并引发美联储的回应。这位宣誓就职的总统在接受媒体采访时，除了发出减税信号和促进人工智能基础设施投资外，还威胁要对中国、欧盟、加拿大、墨西哥和其他金砖国家征收关税，所有这些都与可能带来促通胀压力的扩张性财政政策相一致。尽管如此，市场仍押注美国央行将在今年降息，目前定价为第三季度。最新数据显示，经常性失业申请人数升至2021年11月以来的最高水平，表明劳动力市场疲软，尽管历史强劲。

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note rose toward the 6.65% mark on Thursday, extending the rebound from the near three-week low of 4.58% two sessions earlier as markets continued to assess the how policy pledges by US President Trump may impact the macroeconomic backdrop and trigger a response by the Fed. The sworn-in President issued threats of tariffs against China, the EU, Canada, Mexico, and other BRICS nations when talking to the press, in addition to signaling tax cuts and facilitating AI infrastructure investment, all aligned with expansionary fiscal policy that risks pro-inflationary pressures. Still, markets maintained bets that the US central bank is due to deliver a rate cut this year, currently priced for the third quarter. The latest data showed that recurring unemployment claims rose to their highest since November 2021, indicating a softer, albeit historically strong, labor market.

1月份欧元区消费者信心达到预期（-14.2）。1月份欧元区消费者信心达到预期（-14.2）

Eurozone Consumer Confidence meets expectations (-14.2) in January.Eurozone Consumer Confidence meets expectations (-14.2) in January

加拿大：11月零售销售持平，但可能仍是第四季度实际消费的关键驱动力。在10月份2.4%的强劲增长基础上，机动车和零部件经销商的销售额增长了2.0%m/m。除汽车外，销售额下降了0.7%m/m，低于普遍预期的0.1%m/m增长。

Canada: Retail Sales flat in November, But Likely to Remain a Key Driver of Real Consumption in Q4.Sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers were up by 2.0% m/m, building on October's strong gains of 2.4% m/m. Ex-autos, sales were down 0.7% m/m, falling short of the consensus expectation of 0.1% m/m growth.

周四，Ibovespa指数上涨0.3%，超过123000点，创下五周新高，这得益于对中国需求增强的乐观情绪和对巴西财政纪律的重新信心。巴西国家石油公司和淡水河谷等大宗商品为主的股票分别上涨了约1%和0.5%，这得益于中国宣布大规模注资以稳定市场，这可能会增加对石油和铁矿石等巴西出口产品的需求。巴西银行领涨，涨幅超过2%，而Suzano和Rede D'Or各上涨1.5%以上。

The Ibovespa climbed 0.3% on Thursday, surpassing 123,000 points to reach a five-week high, driven by optimism surrounding stronger Chinese demand and renewed confidence in Brazil’s fiscal discipline. Commodity-heavy stocks, such as Petrobras and Vale, rose approximately 1% and 0.5%, respectively, bolstered by China’s announcement of substantial state fund injections to stabilize its markets, which could enhance demand for Brazilian exports like oil and iron ore. Domestically, the Lula administration's emphasis on inflation control and fiscal responsibility, reiterated by Chief of Staff Rui Costa, supported market sentiment amid ongoing deliberations on food price interventions. Banco do Brasil led gains, climbing over 2%, while Suzano and Rede D’Or advanced more than 1.5% each.

随着日本央行加息的临近，日元稳定在弱势地位。尽管日元仍是本周迄今为止表现最差的货币，但随着市场等待备受期待的日本央行在即将到来的亚洲交易日加息，日元已经企稳。日本央行行长上田和夫上周的评论很好地设定了人们对这一加息的预期。

Yen Stabilizes in Weak Position as BoJ Rate Hike Awaited.While Yen remains the worst performer of the week so far, it has stabilized as the markets await the highly anticipated BoJ rate hike in the upcoming Asian session. Expectations for this rate move were well set by comments from BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda last week.

天然气新闻：今天预计创纪录的2700亿立方英尺的平局-存储报告会点燃牛市吗？。北极爆炸推高了天然气期货价格，因为市场正在等待EIA的2700亿立方英尺提款报告。4.053美元的技术阻力位可能引发反弹至4.369美元。

Natural Gas News: Record 270 Bcf Draw Expected Today – Will Storage Report Ignite Bulls?.Arctic blast drives natural gas futures higher as markets await EIA's 270 Bcf drawdown report. Technical resistance at $4.053 could trigger rally to $4.369.

大豆期货交易价格约为每蒲式耳10.58美元，低于1月21日触及的六个月高点10.67美元，因为预计顶级生产国巴西的有利天气条件缓和了对供应的担忧。尽管收成缓慢，但分析人士仍对巴西的丰收持乐观态度，阿根廷炎热干燥的天气造成的任何作物损失预计都将被巴西的产量抵消。据商品气象组织称，巴西南部和巴拉圭下周可能会有所缓解，巴西北部的干旱条件有助于早期收获，尽管潮湿天气将短暂恢复。在阿根廷，科尔多瓦、圣达菲和恩特雷里奥斯等关键地区的降雨应该会改善北部的湿度水平，但南部和中部地区的干旱状况将持续存在。与此同时，周三有消息称，由于货物不符合植物健康要求，中国已停止从五家巴西公司运送大豆，此后对需求的担忧加剧。

Soybean futures traded around $10.58 per bushel, down from a six-month peak of $10.67 hit on January 21st, as anticipated favorable weather conditions in top producer Brazil tempered concerns about supplies. Despite a slow harvest, analysts remain optimistic about a bumper crop in Brazil, with any crop loss due to Argentina’s hot, dry weather expected to be offset by Brazil's production. According to Commodity Weather Group, southern Brazil and Paraguay could see relief next week, with dry conditions in northern Brazil aiding the early harvest, though wet weather is set to return briefly. In Argentina, rain in key regions like Cordoba, Santa Fe, and Entre Rios should improve moisture levels in the north, but dry conditions are set to persist in the south and central areas. At the same time, concerns over demand grew after news on Wednesday that China had halted soybean shipments from five Brazilian firms due to cargoes failing to meet plant health requirements.

周四，美元指数小幅下跌至108.2，此前美国失业保险首次申请人数增加，福利人数大幅增加至三年高点。截至1月18日的一周，首次申请失业救济人数增加了6000人，达到223000人，略高于预测的220000人。代表仍在领取福利但找不到工作的人的持续索赔人数跃升至190万，为2021年11月以来的最高水平，表明求职时间更长。与此同时，前总统特朗普反对实施关税的决定缓解了通胀担忧。然而，他继续对中国、墨西哥、加拿大和欧盟发出关税威胁。投资者现在关注的是下周的美联储货币政策会议。

The dollar index edged down to 108.2 on Thursday following a rise in first-time applications for US unemployment insurance and a significant increase in benefit rolls to a three-year high. Initial claims rose by 6,000 to 223,000 for the week ending Jan. 18, slightly above the 220,000 forecast. Continuing claims, representing people still on benefits who can't find jobs, jumped to 1.9 million, the highest since November 2021, indicating longer job search times. Meanwhile, former President Trump's decision against implementing tariffs has eased inflation concerns. However, he continues to issue tariff threats against China, Mexico, Canada, and the EU. Investors are now focused on next week's Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting.

周四，美国股指期货持平或下跌，标准普尔500指数下跌0.2%，纳斯达克100指数下跌0.5%，道琼斯期货交易在持平附近。此前一天，标准普尔500指数在盘中创下历史新高。在对特朗普的促增长政策和人工智能投资计划的热情推动股市走高之后，交易员们稍作喘息。投资者也在等待特朗普在达沃斯世界经济论坛上的视频通话。在数据方面，最初的索赔继续表明，尽管劳动力市场强劲，但仍在降温。与此同时，财报季仍在继续，美国航空公司股价在预测第一季度意外亏损后，在盘前交易中下跌约6%。另一方面，通用电气（General Electric）股价在开盘前上涨了8%，此前该公司的盈利表现不佳。

Stock futures in the US were flat to lower on Thursday, with contracts on the S&P 500 losing 0.2%, the Nasdaq 100 declining 0.5% and the Dow Jones futures trading around the flatline. It follows a winning session the day before, that saw the S&P 500 touching an intraday record high. Traders took a breather after enthusiasm around Trump's pro-growth policies and the AI investment plan sent stocks high. Investors also await Trump's video call at the World Economic Forum in Davos. On the data front, initial claims continued to point to a cooling although robust labour market. Meanwhile, the earnings season continues with shares of American Airlines sinking about 6% in premarket trading after forecasting a surprise first-quarter loss. General Electric on the other hand, jumped 8% before the opening bell after beating on earnings.

截至1月18日，美国首次申请失业救济人数比上周增加6000人，达到223000人，略高于市场预期的220000人，为六周来最大增幅。反过来，早期未决索赔人数增加了4.6万人，达到189.9万人，为2021年11月以来的最高水平，这表明那些没有工作的人需要更长的时间才能找到合适的工作，并表明美联储的限制性利率对美国劳动力市场的影响更大。首次申请失业救济人数的四周移动平均线上升了750人，达到213500人，这降低了每周的波动性。反过来，未经季节性调整的索赔人数下降了68135人，至284222人。

Initial jobless claims in the US rose by 6,000 from the previous week to 223,000 in the period ending January 18th, slightly ahead of market expectations of 220,000, to mark the sharpest rise in six weeks. In turn, the outstanding claim count rose by 46,000 to 1,899,000 in the earlier period, the most since November of 2021, to suggest that those without jobs are taking a longer time to find suitable employment, and pointing to a greater impact of restrictive interest rates by the Fed on the US labor market. The four-week moving average for initial claims, which reduce weekly volatility, rose by 750 to 213,500. In turn, the non-seasonally adjusted claim count sank by 68,135 to 284,222.

初步估计显示，2024年12月，加拿大的零售额预计将环比增长1.6%，这是自2022年5月以来的最大增幅。11月份的数据持平，9个子行业中有6个子行业的销售额下降，主要是食品和饮料零售商的销售额下降（-1.6%）。机动车和零部件经销商（+2.0%）以及加油站和燃料供应商（+0.7%）的销售额增长在很大程度上抵消了其余子行业的下降。与此同时，11月核心零售额下降1%，创下六个月来最大跌幅。零售额同比增长1.6%。

Retail sales in Canada are expected to surge 1.6% month-over-month in December 2024, the biggest gain since May 2022, preliminary estimates showed. It follows a flat reading in November, with sales declining in six out of nine subsectors, led by lower sales at food and beverage retailers (-1.6%). Higher sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers (+2.0%) and gasoline stations and fuel vendors (+0.7%) largely offset declines in the remaining subsectors. Meanwhile, core retail sales decreased 1% in November, posting their largest decline in six months. Year-on-year, retail sales increased 1.6%.

碳酸锂价格为每吨77900元人民币，从年初的两个月低点75000元人民币反弹，有迹象表明，持续的供应过剩可能会在2025年缓解。自7月以来，中国新增的电动汽车补贴与12月新能源汽车产量激增30.5%的最新数据相吻合。这一结果有助于人们希望，随着制造商稳定库存水平，电池价格将在不久的将来上涨。与此同时，由于锂价格暴跌而关闭的选定矿山并没有抵消其他主要生产商增加的产量。尽管如此，其他中国主要矿商仍不愿关闭业务，以保留市场份额以及与政府和电池生产商的业务关系。反过来，美国总统特朗普撤销了前几届政府的命令，该命令确保2030年销售的所有新车中有一半是全电动汽车，这导致美国市场的主要电动汽车生产商下降。

Lithium carbonate prices were at CNY 77,900 per tonne, holding the rebound from the two-month low of CNY 75,000 from the start of the year, amid hints that the ongoing supply glut may ease in 2025. Additional EV subsidies in China since July aligned with fresh data that pointed to a 30.5% surge in output of new energy vehicles in December. The results aided hopes that battery prices will rise in the near future as manufacturers stabilize their inventory levels. In the meantime, the closure of selected mines due to the slump in lithium prices has not offset increased production for other major producers. Still, other key Chinese miners refrain from closing operations to retain market share and business relationships with governments and battery producers. In turn, US President Trump revoked the previous administrations order that ensured half of all new vehicles sold in 2030 were fully electric, driving major EV producers with exposure to US market to drop.

纽卡斯尔煤炭期货价格低于每吨117美元，仍接近1月10日触及的近四年低点114美元，当时全球最大消费者的供应水平飙升。中国煤炭运输与配送协会宣布，继创纪录的2024年之后，2025年的产量将增长1.5%，达到48.2亿吨。该机构指出，扩大采矿能力是为了避免因碳排放限制和违反安全协议导致的矿山关闭而降低可用性的风险。这一事态发展发生之际，公用事业公司已经处理了创纪录的煤炭库存，在截至10月的两个月里，煤炭库存增长了12%。此外，中国主要制造业中心的充足降雨进一步挤压了需求，使水力发电优于煤电。在欧洲，2024年强劲的太阳能发电量推动替代能源有史以来首次超过燃煤电厂的发电量。

Newcastle coal futures were below $117 per tonne, remaining close to the near-four-year-low of $114 touched on January 10th amid soaring supply levels into the world's top consumers. The Chinese Coal Transportation and Distribution Association announced that output is set to expand 1.5% to 4.82 billion tons in 2025 following a record-setting 2024. The agency cited expanded mining capacity to avoid risks of lower availability stemming from carbon emission limits and mine shutdowns from safety protocol breaches. The development occurred as utilities already deal with record-high coal inventories, which rose by 12% in the two months ending October. Additionally, demand was further pressured by ample rainfall in key Chinese manufacturing hubs, allowing hydroelectric power to be preferred over coal power. In Europe, strong solar power output in 2024 drove the alternative source to overtake power from coal-powered plants for the first time ever.

欧元/美元、美元/日元和澳元/美元预测——美元继续受到关注。随着利率形势继续有利于强势美元，美元继续在世界各地引起人们的兴趣。此外，由于美国经济是表现最好的经济体之一，这一切都同时出现。

EUR/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/USD Forecast – US Dollar Continues to See Interest.The US dollar continues to capture interest around the world, as the interest rate picture continues to favor a strong greenback. Also, with the US economy being one of the best performing, it all lines up at the same time.