加拿大20年期国债 (Canada20Y) 加自选

周二，标准普尔/多伦多证交所综合指数扭转了早些时候的涨势，收于22507点，跌幅1.5%，接近八个月低点，因为日益加剧的贸易紧张局势和报复措施严重影响了投资者情绪。转折点出现在政府证实，从明天开始，对中国进口商品的关税将升级至104%时，这一鲜明的声明突显了美国在与北京持续摩擦的情况下毫不妥协的贸易立场，北京官员发誓要“战斗到底”。加拿大宣布，从明天起，某些进入该国的美国汽车将被征收25%的关税，这进一步加剧了人们对更广泛贸易冲突的担忧。所有九个主要板块均收跌，能源生产商领跌，权重股加拿大天然气公司、森科尔公司、帝国石油公司和Cenovus公司均大幅下跌2.4%至5.3%。

The S&P/TSX Composite Index reversed its earlier gains to close 1.5% lower at 22,507 on Tuesday, a near eight-month low, as mounting trade tensions and retaliatory measures weighed heavily on investor sentiment. The turning point came when the administration confirmed that tariffs on Chinese imports would escalate to 104% starting tomorrow—a stark declaration underscoring an uncompromising U.S. trade stance amid persistent friction with Beijing, where officials have vowed to “fight to the end.” Compounding these concerns, Canada announced that from tomorrow, certain U.S. vehicles entering the country will incur 25% tariffs, further fueling fears of a broader trade conflict. All nine major sectors closed in the red, with energy producers leading the decline as heavyweights Canadian Natural, Suncor, Imperial Oil, and Cenovus posted sharp losses ranging from 2.4% to 5.3%.

加拿大10年期政府债券收益率攀升至3.1%以上，从两年来的低点2.83%反弹，此前全球长期收益率上升，这是由于经济衰退担忧缓解，以及美国主导的贸易谈判出现进展迹象后风险偏好回升。虽然加拿大在很大程度上避免了直接受到华盛顿最新关税威胁的影响，但全球贸易紧张局势的升级，特别是特朗普对中国征收50%关税的警告，加剧了人们对进口通胀和供应链中断的担忧。在国内，加拿大央行最近将利率降至2.75%，这增强了人们对宽松政策的预期，但随着与关税相关的成本压力的增加，市场越来越将长期通胀风险纳入定价。与此同时，美国国债收益率飙升至4.2%以上，缩小了美国和加拿大债券之间的利差，并可能减少外国对加拿大债券的需求。

Canada’s 10-year government bond yield climbed above 3.1%, snapping back from its two-year low of 2.83% as it followed the global rise in long-term yields, driven by easing recession fears and renewed risk appetite following signs of movement in U.S.-led trade negotiations. While Canada has largely avoided direct exposure to Washington’s latest tariff threats, the escalation of global trade tensions—particularly Trump's warning of 50% tariffs on China—has intensified concerns about imported inflation and supply chain disruptions. Domestically, the Bank of Canada’s recent rate cut to 2.75% has reinforced expectations for easier policy, but markets are increasingly pricing in higher long-term inflation risk as tariff-related cost pressures build. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields surged past 4.2%, narrowing the spread between U.S. and Canadian bonds and potentially reducing foreign demand for Canadian debt.

加元兑美元汇率升至1.41美元，接近4月3日的近四个月高点，因为投资者评估了加拿大对美国严厉新关税的相对隔离。加拿大将在很大程度上免于根据USMCA扩大关税的信号有助于缓解贸易担忧，而正在进行的国际关税谈判继续提供支持。尽管特朗普总统拒绝暂停关税，并表示愿意在近70个国家的支持下进行谈判，但他威胁说，如果中国不取消关税，他将对中国额外征收50%的关税，中国谴责此举是“勒索”，同时誓言“战斗到底”。在国内，加拿大商业信心仍然具有弹性，Ivey PMI保持在50以上就是明证，但汽车、钢铁和铝等关键行业的持续脆弱性，以及4月28日提前大选前更广泛的经济前景和政治风险的持续不确定性，继续构成挑战。

The Canadian dollar strengthened toward $1.41, nearing its recent four-month high on April 3rd, as investors assess Canada's relative insulation from harsh new U.S. tariffs. Signals that Canada will largely remain exempt from expanded duties under the USMCA have helped alleviate trade concerns, while ongoing international tariff negotiations continue to lend support. Although President Trump dismissed pausing tariffs and signaled a willingness to negotiate—supported by nearly 70 countries reaching out—he threatened an extra 50% tariff on China if it doesn't remove its levies, a move China denounced as "blackmail" while vowing to "fight to the end." Domestically, Canadian business confidence remains resilient, as evidenced by the Ivey PMI holding above 50, yet ongoing vulnerabilities in key sectors such as auto, steel, and aluminum—and lingering uncertainties over the broader economic outlook and political risks ahead of the snap election on April 28th—continue to pose challenges.

加拿大Ivey采购经理人指数从2月份的7个月高点55.3降至2025年3月的51.3，低于市场预期的53.2。尽管如此，在1月份的2020年低点47.1之后，它仍然处于扩张性区域，这得益于库存的反弹（53.0对49.4）。然而，就业人数下降（48.2比53.7），供应商交付进一步放缓（43.2比47.6），通胀压力加剧（75.6比71.5）。

The Ivey Purchasing Managers Index in Canada eased to 51.3 in March 2025 from a seven-month high of 55.3 in February, missing market expectations of 53.2. Still, it remained in expansionary territory following the 2020-low of 47.1 in January, supported by a rebound in inventories (53.0 vs 49.4). However, employment declined (48.2 vs 53.7), supplier deliveries slowed further (43.2 vs 47.6), and inflationary pressures intensified (75.6 vs 71.5).