智利10年期国债 (Chile10Y) 加自选

2024年11月，智利生产者价格指数较上年同期上涨11.7%，较10月的10.6%有所加速，创下7月以来最快的生产者通胀速度。这一增长完全是由于在水处理成本急剧上升的情况下，处理和供应公用事业的公司的成本激增了23.5%（23.5%）。反过来，尽管铜矿商的成本每月都在下降，但采矿活动的成本每年飙升14.4%。最后，制造商的通货膨胀率为4.7%。与上月相比，生产者价格没有变化。

Producer prices in Chile rose by 11.7% from the previous year in November of 2024, accelerating from the 10.6% increase in October to mark the fastest pace of producer inflation since July. The increase was solely due to a 23.5% surge in costs for companies that treat and supply utilities (23.5%), amid a sharp rise in water treatment costs. In turn, costs for mining activities soared by 14.4% annually, despite a monthly drop in costs for copper miners. Lastly, inflation for manufacturers was at a softer 4.7%. From the previous month, producer prices were unchanged.

智利央行在12月的会议上一致投票决定将政策利率下调25个基点至5%，这反映了持续的外部和国内挑战。在全球范围内，美国经济仍然具有弹性，而中国的疲软对铜价造成了压力，铜价目前接近4美元/磅。全球不确定性上升、长期利率和美元走强给智利比索带来了压力，自上次会议以来，智利比索贬值了6%。在国内，第三季度的活动与预测一致，但私人消费和投资疲软，尤其是在采矿业以外。由于比索贬值、工资上涨和电价上涨导致成本上升，11月通货膨胀率达到4.2%，高于预期。短期通胀压力可能会在2025年上半年将利率推向5%，尽管国内需求疲软可能会从长远来看缓解压力。央行仍然保持谨慎，重申其灵活的方法，以确保通货膨胀在两年内收敛到3%。

The Central Bank of Chile unanimously voted to reduce the policy interest rate by 25 bps to 5% at its December meeting, reflecting persistent external and domestic challenges. Globally, the U.S. economy remains resilient, while China’s weakness weighs on copper prices, now near $4/lb. Rising global uncertainty, long-term interest rates, and a stronger dollar have pressured Chile’s peso, which depreciated 6% since the last meeting. Domestically, Q3 activity aligned with forecasts but showed weak private consumption and investment, particularly outside the mining sector. Inflation reached 4.2% in November, above projections, due to higher costs from peso depreciation, rising wages, and electricity tariffs. Short-term inflation pressures may push rates toward 5% in H1 2025, though weaker domestic demand could ease pressures longer term. The Central Bank remains cautious, reaffirming its flexible approach to ensure inflation converges to 3% within two years.

2024年11月，智利的贸易顺差为13.8亿美元，高于去年同期的13.4亿美元。出口同比增长2.6%，达到79.41亿美元，主要原因是制成品（+4.1%）和矿产品（+1.1%）的出货量增加，其中铜（+7.1%）；农业、林业和渔业（+12.3%）。与此同时，进口额增长2.5%，达到65.59亿美元。

Chile posted a trade surplus of $1,380 million in November 2024, up from $1,340 million in the corresponding period of the previous year. Exports rose by 2.6% year-on-year to $7,941 million, on higher shipments of manufactured products (+4.1%), mining products (+1.1%), of which copper (+7.1%); and agriculture, forestry & fishing (+12.3%). Meanwhile, imports advanced by 2.5% to $6,559 million.

2024年11月，智利的年通货膨胀率从上个月的4.7%降至4.2%。按月计算，11月消费者价格指数上涨0.2%，与10月的1%相比大幅放缓，略低于市场预期的0.3%的涨幅。值得注意的是，食品和非酒精饮料（-0.3%对10月份的2.2%）以及酒精饮料和烟草（-1%对1.8%）的价格均有所下降。此外，其他CPI项目的价格增长放缓，包括住房和公用事业（0.2%对3.1%）；杂项商品和服务（0.1%对0.4%）；娱乐和文化（0.2%对0.4%）。核心消费者价格指数在上个月上涨0.2%后，11月小幅上涨0.5%。

The annual inflation rate in Chile eased to 4.2% in November 2024, down from 4.7% in the prior month. On a monthly basis, consumer prices increased by 0.2% in November, a significant slowdown from the 1% rise in October and slightly below market expectations of a 0.3% uptick. Notably, prices decreased for food & non-alcoholic beverages (-0.3% vs 2.2% in October) and alcoholic beverages & tobacco (-1% vs 1.8%). Moreover, price growth slowed for other CPI items, including housing & utilities (0.2% vs 3.1%); miscellaneous goods & services (0.1% vs 0.4%); and recreation & culture (0.2% vs 0.4%). Core consumer prices inched up 0.5% in November, after a 0.2% increase in the prior month.