美国52周国债 (US52W) 加自选

在纽约，道琼斯指数周一上涨314点，涨幅0.76%。英特尔（3.86%）、旅行者公司（3.13%）和思科系统（1.79%）领涨。最大的输家是苹果（-3.25%）、亚马逊（-0.56%）和波音（-0.39%）。

In New York, the Dow Jones Index is picking up 314 points or 0.76 percent on Monday. Gains are led by Intel (3.86%), Travelers Companies (3.13%) and Cisco Systems (1.79%). Biggest losers are Apple (-3.25%), Amazon (-0.56%) and Boeing (-0.39%).

周一，美国股市涨跌互现，标准普尔500指数在持平线上徘徊，道琼斯指数上涨210多点，创下历史新高，纳斯达克指数下跌0.7%，因为交易员在美联储周三的货币政策决定之前仍持谨慎态度。美联储将自2020年以来首次降息，目前大幅降息50个基点的可能性超过60%，而周五为50%。科技板块表现最差，由于对iPhone需求下降的担忧，苹果股价下跌超过3%。此外，上周推动市场复苏的芯片股下跌，因为投资者缩减了头寸，英伟达和博通下跌了近3%。相比之下，能源板块表现优异，雪佛龙股价上涨1.6%。

US stocks were mixed on Monday, with the S&P 500 swinging around the flatline, the Dow Jones rising over 210 points to a new all-time high and the Nasdaq falling 0.7%, as traders remain cautious ahead of the Fed's monetary policy decision on Wednesday. The Fed is set to lower interest rates for the first time since 2020, and the odds for a jumbo 50bps rate reduction currently stand at above 60% compared to 50% on Friday. The tech sector was the worst performer, with Apple shares losing over 3% amid concerns about lower demand for iPhones. Also, chip stocks, which drove the market's recovery last week, declined as investors scaled back their positions, with Nvidia and Broadcom losing almost 3%. In contrast, the energy sector outperformed, with shares of Chevron gaining 1.6%.

2024年9月，纽约帝国州制造业指数意外跃升至11.5，为2022年4月以来的最高水平，而8月份为-4.7，预测为-3.9。该数据显示，纽约州的商业活动近一年来首次增长，新订单攀升（8月份为9.4比-7.9），出货量大幅增长（17.9比0.3）。交货时间（-1.1 vs-3.2）和供应可用性保持稳定（2.1 vs-7.4），库存趋于平稳（0 vs-10.6）。与此同时，劳动力市场状况仍然疲软，就业继续温和收缩（-5.7比-6.7），平均工作周保持稳定（2.9比-17.8）。此外，投入（23.2比23.4）和销售价格增长（7.4比8.5）的速度几乎没有变化。尽管资本支出指数自2020年以来首次降至零以下（-2.1对8.5），但企业对未来几个月情况将有所改善的乐观态度有所增强（30.6对22.9）。

The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index unexpectedly jumped to 11.5 in September 2024, the highest since April 2022, compared to -4.7 in August and forecasts of -3.9. The reading showed business activity in New York state grew for the first time in nearly a year, as new orders climbed (9.4 vs -7.9 in August) and shipments grew significantly (17.9 vs 0.3). Delivery times (-1.1 vs -3.2) and supply availability were steady (2.1 vs -7.4), and inventories leveled off (0 vs -10.6). Meanwhile, labor market conditions remained soft, with employment continuing to contract modestly (-5.7 vs -6.7) and the average workweek holding steady (2.9 vs -17.8). Also, the pace of input (23.2 vs 23.4) and selling price increases (7.4 vs 8.5) were little changed. Firms grew more optimistic that conditions would improve in the months ahead (30.6 vs 22.9), though the capital spending index dipped below zero for the first time since 2020 (-2.1 vs 8.5).

周一，美国10年期国债收益率跌至3.34%左右，徘徊在2023年5月以来的最低水平，因为交易员们纷纷押注美联储本周开始降息时将采取更积极的行动。根据芝加哥商品交易所的FedWatch工具，市场目前预计美联储周三将大幅降息50个基点的可能性为59%，高于一个月前的25%，而适度降息25个基点的几率为41%。尽管最新的就业数据显示劳动力市场放缓的迹象，但8月份的关键通胀数据仍高于上周的预期。投资者还期待周二美国零售销售和工业生产数据，以获得更多关于经济的见解。

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury slipped to around 3.34% on Monday, hovering at its lowest levels since May 2023 as traders piled on bets that the Federal Reserve will move more aggressively when it starts cutting interest rates this week. Markets are currently pricing in a 59% chance that the Fed will deliver a larger 50 basis point rate cut on Wednesday, up from 25% a month ago, while odds for a modest 25 bps reduction stands at 41%, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool. Those expectations came even after key inflation figures for August came in hotter-than-anticipated last week, although the latest jobs data pointed to signs of a slowing labor market. Investors also look ahead to US retail sales and industrial production numbers on Tuesday for more insights on the economy.