哥伦比亚10年期国债 (Colombia10Y) 加自选

2024年11月，哥伦比亚的工业信心指数降至-2.8，延续了10月份0.4的下滑趋势，这是过去十个月中第九个出现负增长的月份。这一下降主要是由于下一季度的生产预期大幅下降（2.4比10月的14.4）和库存水平大幅下降（-2.4比0）。然而，新订单有所改善（-13.4比-15.7）。相比之下，一年前的信心指数为7.1。

The industrial confidence indicator for Colombia dropped to -2.8 in November 2024, extending October's downturn of 0.4, marking the ninth negative month in the last ten months. This decline was mainly driven by a sharp decrease in production expectations for the next quarter (2.4 compared to 14.4 in October) and stock levels (-2.4 compared to 0). However, there was improvement in new orders (-13.4 compared to -15.7). In comparison, the confidence indicator stood lower at 7.1 a year earlier.

哥伦比亚央行在12月将基准利率下调25个基点至9.5%，低于预期的50个基点的下调幅度，五名董事会成员支持这一举措，一名赞成下调50个基点，另一名则赞成下调75个基点。11月份的年通胀率从10月份的5.4%降至5.2%，但由于持续的服务通胀，核心通胀率保持在5.4%。在总资本形成激增20.3%的推动下，第三季度国内生产总值增长了2.0%，使今年迄今的增长率达到1.6%。然而，由于全球金融形势趋紧、美联储预期降息放缓以及哥伦比亚财政的不确定性，最近的汇率波动增加了通胀风险，限制了大幅降息的空间。劳动力市场保持稳定，失业率低于疫情前的水平。央行强调，未来的利率决定将取决于即将公布的经济数据，同时平衡通胀压力和增长复苏。

The Central Bank of Colombia reduced its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 9.5% in December, less than the expected 50bps reduction, with five board members supporting the move, while one favored a 50bps cut and another a 75bps reduction. Annual inflation eased to 5.2% in November from 5.4% in October, though core inflation held at 5.4% due to persistent service inflation. GDP expanded by 2.0% in Q3, driven by a 20.3% surge in gross capital formation, lifting year-to-date growth to 1.6%. However, recent exchange rate volatility, stemming from tighter global financial conditions, slower expected Fed rate cuts, and Colombia’s fiscal uncertainty, has raised inflationary risks, limiting room for aggressive rate cuts. The labor market remained stable, with unemployment below pre-pandemic levels. The central bank emphasized that future rate decisions will depend on incoming economic data while balancing inflationary pressures and growth recovery.

2024年10月，哥伦比亚领先经济指标同比增长2.94%，高于上个月向下修正的1.07%的增长。所有主要行业的增长加速，服务业增长2.93%（高于9月份的2.03%），第一产业增长4.41%（高于1.53%），制造业反弹至1.38%（从-2.35%）。经季节性调整的月度数据显示，该指标比9月份增长了0.8%。

Colombia's leading economic indicator rose by 2.94% year-on-year in October 2024, up from a downwardly revised 1.07% increase in the previous month. Growth accelerated across all major sectors, with services expanding by 2.93% (up from 2.03% in September), primary industries rising 4.41% (compared to 1.53%), and manufacturing rebounding to 1.38% (from -2.35%). On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the indicator increased by 0.8% compared to September.

2024年10月，哥伦比亚的进口额同比增长6.6%，达到57.31亿美元，这是过去24个月来的第六次增长，主要是由于制成品（6.7%）和农产品（16.5%）的购买量增加。主要进口伙伴包括中国（占总收购额的26.4%）、美国（24.7%）和巴西（5.2%）。

Imports to Colombia rose 6.6% year-on-year to USD 5.731 billion in October 2024, marking the sixth increase in the last twenty-four months, driven by higher purchases of manufactured products (6.7%) and agricultural goods (16.5%). Major import partners included China (26.4% of total acquisitions), the US (24.7%), and Brazil (5.2%).