美国5年期国债 (US5Y) 加自选

美国股市在圣诞节前夕的一个短暂交易日走高，标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克100指数分别上涨0.7%和0.9%，道琼斯指数上涨150多点。科技股，尤其是英伟达（+0.8%），对反弹做出了贡献，特斯拉上涨4.5%，亚马逊上涨1.6%。此前，周五和周一表现强劲，主要股指在上周因对美联储行动的担忧而大幅下跌后，更接近历史高点。华尔街现在关注的是利率的未来走势，大多数人预计美联储将在1月和3月的会议上保持利率稳定。美国股市指数正走向胜利的一年，纳斯达克100指数、标准普尔500指数和道琼斯指数都将上涨30%至15%，芯片制造商的反弹推动了这一涨幅，他们押注人工智能服务的激增将提高对硬件的需求。由于预计本周交易清淡，纽约证券交易所将于周二早盘收盘，并于周三圣诞节收盘。

US stocks were higher on a short trading day of Christmas eve, as the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 were up 0.7% and 0.9%, respectively, and the Dow Jones added over 150 points. Tech stocks, particularly Nvidia (+0.8%), contributed to the rally, with Tesla jumping 4.5% and Amazon up 1.6%. This followed strong performances on Friday and Monday, bringing major indexes closer to their record highs after a sharp decline prompted by concerns over the Federal Reserve's actions last week. Wall Street is now focused on the future path of interest rates, with most expecting the Fed to hold rates steady at its January and March meetings. US stock indices are heading for a winning year with the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, and Dow Jones all set to rise between 30% and 15%, carried by the rallies of chip makers amid bets that the surge in AI services will raise demand for hardware. With trading expected to be light this week, the NYSE will close early on Tuesday, and closed for Christmas Day on Wednesday.

第五次地区服务业活动调查显示，2024年12月出现了积极趋势，收入指数从9上升到23，为2021年7月以来的最高水平。未来收入和需求指数均远高于中性水平，反映出企业对未来六个月的强烈乐观情绪。当地商业状况也有所改善，该指数从10升至14，而对未来状况的乐观情绪随着该指数从32升至39而增长。就业指数保持不变，为2，企业继续提高工资，预计未来几个月将进一步上涨。技能可用性指数保持稳定，但公司预计未来六个月将有更高的招聘水平，技术工人的可用性变化很小。价格增长几乎没有变化，企业预测明年价格上涨将略有放缓。

The Fifth District Survey of Service Sector Activity revealed positive trends in December 2024, with the revenues index rising to 23 from 9, the highest reading since July 2021. Both future revenue and demand indexes stayed well above neutral, reflecting strong optimism among firms for the next six months. Local business conditions also saw improvement, with the index advancing to 14 from 10, while optimism about future conditions grew as the index increased to 39 from 32. The employment index remained unchanged at 2, and firms continued to raise wages, with expectations for further increases in the coming months. The skills availability index stayed steady, but firms anticipated higher hiring levels and minimal change in the availability of skilled workers over the next six months. Price growth showed little change, with businesses forecasting a slight moderation in price increases over the next year.

美国第五区的综合制造业指数从11月的-14升至2024年12月的-10，表明略有改善。在其组成部分中，出货量和就业率保持稳定，而新订单从-19增加到-11。当地商业状况指数从-14升至0，对未来商业状况的预期从31升至40，显示出对未来六个月的乐观态度。未来的出货量和新订单也变得更加积极。供应商交付周期指数从4上升到11，更少的公司报告积压量下降，该指数从-27上升到-13。价格趋势呈现出喜忧参半的结果：支付价格的增长率略有上升，而收到的价格则有所放缓。然而，公司预计明年支付和收到的价格都会更快增长。

The composite manufacturing index in the US Fifth District rose to -10 in December 2024 from -14 in November, signaling a slight improvement. Among its components, shipments and employment were stable, while new orders improved from -19 to -11. The local business conditions index reached 0, up from -14, and expectations for future business conditions rose from 31 to 40, showing optimism for the next six months. Future shipments and new orders also turned more positive. The vendor lead time index increased from 4 to 11, and fewer firms reported declining backlogs, with that index improving to -13 from -27. Price trends showed mixed results: the growth rate of prices paid edged up slightly, while prices received slowed. However, firms anticipated faster growth in both prices paid and received over the next year.

周二交易时段缩短，美国股市交易清淡，与流动性疲软的预期一致，因为市场继续评估美联储明年加息的风险将如何影响企业回报。三大主要股指小幅涨跌互现，保持了上周联邦公开市场委员会引发的抛售的近期反弹，权重科技股领涨。这些动态很好地描绘了今年美国股指的走势，纳斯达克100指数、标准普尔500指数和道琼斯指数都将上涨30%至15%，芯片制造商的反弹推动了这一趋势，因为人们押注人工智能服务的激增将提高对硬件的需求。今天，美国航空公司股价下跌了5%以上，此前一个软件故障导致所有航班暂时停飞，以适应高流量的假期旅行日程。纽约证券交易所和纳斯达克将于今天提前三个小时结束交易，然后由于圣诞节假期于周四重新开放。

US stocks traded in muted fashion on a shortened Tuesday session, consistent with expectations of thin liquidity as markets continued to assess how the risk of higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve next year will impact corporate returns. The three main averages exchanged small gains and blows, holding the recent rebound from the FOMC-induced selloff last week, led by gains for the heavyweight tech sector. These dynamics paint a good portrayal of the year’s momentum for US stock indices, with the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, and Dow Jones all set to rise between 30% and 15%, carried by the rallies of chip manufacturers amid bets that the surge in AI services will raise demand for hardware. Today, American Airlines fell more than 5% after a software glitch drove all flights to temporarily be grounded in the high-volume holiday travel schedule. The NYSE and Nasdaq are due to close the session three hours earlier today before reopening on Thursday due to the Christmas holiday.