巴西6个月期国债 (Brazil6M) 加自选

周一，Ibovespa指数下跌1.1%，收于120767点，受到对公共财政持续担忧和Selic利率预测上升的压力。金融机构重新评估了最近批准的支出削减的财政影响，而央行的焦点报告显示，2025年的Selic利率预测从14%上升到14.75%，IPCA通胀估计连续第十周攀升至4.84%，高于4.50%的目标上限。主要银行领跌，桑坦德银行、Itaúsa和Bradesco下跌1.5%至3%。其他值得注意的下跌股包括WEG、Rede D'Or和CPFL Energia，跌幅在1.8%至4%之间。机构关系部长帕迪利亚重申，政府致力于将财政框架作为与社会和经济行为体的契约，确保采取一切必要措施实现财政目标。

The Ibovespa declined 1.1% to close at 120,767 on Monday, pressured by ongoing concerns over public finances and rising Selic rate projections. Financial agents reassessed the fiscal impact of recently approved spending cuts, while the central bank’s Focus Report showed the Selic rate forecast for 2025 increasing to 14.75% from 14% and the IPCA inflation estimate climbing for the tenth consecutive week to 4.84%, above the 4.50% target ceiling. Major lenders led losses, with Banco Santander, Itaúsa, and Bradesco down between 1.5% and 3%. Other notable decliners included WEG, Rede D’Or, and CPFL Energia, posting losses between 1.8% and 4%. Minister of Institutional Relations Padilha reiterated the government’s commitment to the fiscal framework as a contract with society and economic actors, assuring that all necessary measures would be taken to meet fiscal goals.

由于对巴西财政政策和通胀预期上升的担忧继续削弱投资者信心，巴西雷亚尔兑美元汇率跌破6.17，接近12月18日创下的6.29的历史低点。尽管国会最近通过了一项削减开支的计划，但围绕这些措施有效性的不确定性依然存在。市场越来越怀疑，财政储蓄预测从520亿雷亚尔降至440亿雷亚尔。与此同时，正如《焦点公报》所指出的那样，投资者的通胀预期有所上升，2024年的通胀预测从4.89%上升到4.91%，远高于央行3%的目标。再加上央行最近承认可能违反通胀目标的公开信，进一步加剧了人们对其锚定通胀能力的担忧。与此同时，美元在全球范围内走强，以回应美联储对降息放缓的预测。

The Brazilian real weakened beyond 6.17 per USD, approaching the record low of 6.29 reached on December 18th, as concerns over Brazil’s fiscal policy and rising inflation expectations continue to erode investor confidence. Despite the recent passage of a spending cuts package in Congress, uncertainties surrounding the effectiveness of the measures persist. The market has grown increasingly skeptical, with fiscal savings projections dropping from 52 billion to 44 billion reais. Meanwhile, investors' inflation expectations, as indicated by the Focus Bulletin, have increased, with forecasts for 2024 inflation rising from 4.89% to 4.91%, well above the Central Bank’s target of 3%. This, coupled with the Central Bank’s recent open letter acknowledging a likely inflation target breach, has further fueled concerns about its ability to anchor inflation. Simultaneously, the US dollar strengthened globally in response to the Federal Reserve's projection of slower interest rate cuts.

周一，由于对公共财政的担忧持续存在，Ibovespa指数下跌0.7%，至121500点以下，金融机构重新评估了最近批准的支出削减带来的潜在财政节省，而更高的Selic利率预测进一步打压了市场情绪。央行的焦点报告显示，对2025年的预测不断上升，塞利克利率预测从14%上升到14.75%，IPCA通胀估计连续第十周攀升至4.84%，超过了4.50%的目标上限。权重股WEG、JBS和桑坦德银行表现不佳，跌幅在1.4%至1.7%之间。与此同时，机构关系部长帕迪利亚强调了市场对话的重要性，重申政府致力于将财政框架作为与社会和经济行为体的契约，并保证将采取一切必要措施实现既定目标。

The Ibovespa fell 0.7% to below the 121,500 level on Monday as concerns over public finances persisted, with financial agents reassessing potential fiscal savings from recently approved spending cuts, while higher Selic rate projections further pressure market sentiment. The Central Bank's Focus Report revealed rising forecasts for 2025, with the Selic rate projection increasing to 14.75% from 14% and the IPCA inflation estimate climbing for the tenth consecutive week to 4.84%, exceeding the 4.50% target ceiling. Heavyweights WEG, JBS, and Banco Santander underperformed, posting losses between 1.4% and 1.7%. Meanwhile, Minister of Institutional Relations Padilha emphasized the importance of market dialogue, reaffirming the government's commitment to the fiscal framework as a contract with society and economic actors, and assured that all necessary measures would be taken to meet established goals.

2024年11月，巴西的经常账户赤字为31亿美元，与去年同期的13亿美元差距相比大幅扩大，与市场预期的32亿美元赤字大致相符。这一扩大是由于商品顺差再次下降（63亿美元对2023年11月的80亿美元），进口激增8.9%至219亿美元，而出口小幅增长0.4%至282亿美元，主要是由于巴西最大的出口伙伴中国经济放缓。反过来，服务赤字从上一年的37亿美元缺口扩大到47亿美元，初级账户赤字从44亿美元扩大到50亿美元。

Brazil recorded a current account deficit of $3.1 billion in November of 2024, widening sharply from the $1.3 billion gap in the corresponding period of the previous year, and loosely in line with market expectations of a $3.2 billion deficit. The widening was due to another decline in the goods surplus ($6.3 billion vs $8 billion in November 2023), as imports surged by 8.9% to $21.9 billion while exports edged higher by a slower 0.4% to 28.2 billion, largely due to a slowing Chinese economy, Brazil’s largest export partner. In turn, the services deficit widened to $4.7 billion from a $3.7 billion gap in the previous year and the primary account deficit widened to $5 billion from $4.4 billion.