英镑/纽币 (GBPNZD) 加自选

英镑在1.24秒的低点测试关键阻力位–丰业银行。丰业银行首席外汇策略师Shaun Osborne指出，英镑（GBP）在盘中追随其主要货币对美元的走高，但在一定程度上落后于欧元。

GBP tests key resistance in low 1.24s – Scotiabank.The Pound Sterling (GBP) is tracking its major currency peers higher against the USD on the session—but is lagging the EUR somewhat, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

衡量英国零售额的指标在2025年1月降至-24，将该行业的衰退延长到连续第四个月。与12月的-15相比，这也是五个月来的最低读数，远低于市场预测的-5。1月份，零售额被判断为全年“不佳”（-24比-23），互联网零售额下降速度更快（-22比-8）。CBI的Martin Sartorius表示：“展望未来，零售商、批发商和汽车贸易商预计销售下滑将持续到下个月。最近的增长数据显示，迫切需要为经济注入动力，政府应该考虑有助于提振包括零售业在内的关键行业信心的政策杠杆。随着企业为4月份预算措施生效导致的成本上涨做好准备，推进对不公平的商业费率制度的改革并为学徒税提供急需的灵活性至关重要。”。

The gauge measuring retail sales volumes in the UK fell to -24 in January 2025, extending the sector’s downturn into a fourth straight month. It is also the lowest reading in five months, compared to -15 in December and much worse than market forecasts of -5. In January, retail sales volumes were judged to be ‘poor’ for the time of year (-24 vs -23) and internet retail sales volumes declined at a quicker pace (-22 vs -8). “Looking ahead, retailers, wholesalers, and motor traders expect the sales slump to continue into next month. With recent growth figures showing the urgent need to inject momentum into the economy, the government should look at policy levers that would help shore up confidence across key sectors, including retail. As firms brace for an April costs hike due Budget measures coming into force, it is crucial to press ahead with reforms to the unfair business rates system and deliver much-needed flexibility to the Apprenticeship Levy", Martin Sartorius, CBI, said.

英国10年期国债收益率升至4.65%，好于预期的PMI数据促使交易员下调了英格兰银行降息预期。采购经理人指数显示，在服务业增长的推动下，私营部门产出略有增长，抵消了制造业疲软的影响。然而，由于需求减少和支出削减，新工作总量以2023年10月以来的最快速度下降。就业人数连续第四个月下降，主要是由于成本压力上升，投入价格以2023年5月以来的最快速度上涨。人员配备水平的下降，特别是在服务业，与冻结招聘和削减成本措施有关，包括提高工资税。交易员此前预计降息70个基点，但现在已调整至65个基点左右。与此同时，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普呼吁欧佩克降低油价，并警告称，如果产品不是在美国制造的，将征收关税。

The yield on the UK’s 10-year gilt rose to 4.65% as better-than-expected PMI data prompted traders to trim their Bank of England rate-cut expectations. The PMI showed marginal growth in private sector output, driven by a rise in services, which offset weaker manufacturing performance. However, total new work dropped at its fastest pace since October 2023, due to reduced demand and spending cutbacks. Employment fell for the fourth consecutive month, largely driven by rising cost pressures, with input prices increasing at the fastest rate since May 2023. The decline in staffing levels, especially in the services sector, was linked to hiring freezes and cost-cutting measures, including higher payroll taxes. Traders had previously priced in a 70-basis-point rate cut but have now adjusted to around 65 basis points. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump called on OPEC to lower oil prices and warned of tariffs if products aren’t made in the US.

英镑上涨至1.24美元以上，此前数据显示英国经济1月份表现好于预期。服务业PMI小幅上升，制造业PMI也有所改善，均超过预期。然而，仍然存在一些担忧。新订单大幅下降，由于成本上升，就业人数连续第四个月下降。投入价格也上涨，这可能会推高通胀。此外，随着4月份税收和工资的增加，预计成本将进一步上涨。英格兰银行仍有可能在2月份降息25个基点，但数据显示不会加快降息速度。在其他地方，在唐纳德·特朗普总统呼吁降低利率和原油价格后，美元面临压力。

The British Pound rose above $1.24 after data showed the UK economy performed better than expected in January. The Services PMI rose slightly, and the Manufacturing PMI also improved, both surpassing forecasts. However, there are still concerns. New orders in business declined sharply, and employment dropped for the fourth straight month due to rising costs. Input prices also went up, which could push inflation higher. Additionally, with tax and wage increases in April, costs are expected to rise even more. The Bank of England is still likely to cut interest rates by 25 bps in February, but the data suggests it won’t speed up cuts. Elsewhere, the dollar was under pressure following President Donald Trump’s call to lower interest rates and crude prices.