欧元/英镑 (EURGBP) 加自选

英镑在1.24秒的低点测试关键阻力位–丰业银行。丰业银行首席外汇策略师Shaun Osborne指出，英镑（GBP）在盘中追随其主要货币对美元的走高，但在一定程度上落后于欧元。

GBP tests key resistance in low 1.24s – Scotiabank.The Pound Sterling (GBP) is tracking its major currency peers higher against the USD on the session—but is lagging the EUR somewhat, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

衡量英国零售额的指标在2025年1月降至-24，将该行业的衰退延长到连续第四个月。与12月的-15相比，这也是五个月来的最低读数，远低于市场预测的-5。1月份，零售额被判断为全年“不佳”（-24比-23），互联网零售额下降速度更快（-22比-8）。CBI的Martin Sartorius表示：“展望未来，零售商、批发商和汽车贸易商预计销售下滑将持续到下个月。最近的增长数据显示，迫切需要为经济注入动力，政府应该考虑有助于提振包括零售业在内的关键行业信心的政策杠杆。随着企业为4月份预算措施生效导致的成本上涨做好准备，推进对不公平的商业费率制度的改革并为学徒税提供急需的灵活性至关重要。”。

The gauge measuring retail sales volumes in the UK fell to -24 in January 2025, extending the sector’s downturn into a fourth straight month. It is also the lowest reading in five months, compared to -15 in December and much worse than market forecasts of -5. In January, retail sales volumes were judged to be ‘poor’ for the time of year (-24 vs -23) and internet retail sales volumes declined at a quicker pace (-22 vs -8). “Looking ahead, retailers, wholesalers, and motor traders expect the sales slump to continue into next month. With recent growth figures showing the urgent need to inject momentum into the economy, the government should look at policy levers that would help shore up confidence across key sectors, including retail. As firms brace for an April costs hike due Budget measures coming into force, it is crucial to press ahead with reforms to the unfair business rates system and deliver much-needed flexibility to the Apprenticeship Levy", Martin Sartorius, CBI, said.

法国10年期OAT的收益率约为3.3%，与欧洲同行一致，因为交易员评估了强于预期的PMI数据，并继续评估特朗普总统的政策。投资者还展望了下周欧洲央行的货币政策决定，以寻求进一步的方向。随着私营部门活动显示出复苏迹象，制造业收缩有所缓解，欧元区的快速PMI提供了一些乐观情绪。与此同时，人们普遍预计欧洲央行下周将再次下调关键存款利率25个基点。在法国，预算辩论仍在继续，因为新提名的政府再次面临在分裂的议会中通过预算法案的挑战。法国和德国收益率之间的利差约为77个基点，反映了持有法国债务的风险溢价。相比之下，去年5月，在马克龙总统宣布提前选举之前，这一数字为50个基点。

The yield on France's 10-Year OAT stood at around 3.3%, in line with its European peers, as traders assessed stronger-than-expected PMI data and continued to evaluate President Trump's policies. Investors also looked ahead to next week's ECB monetary policy decision for further direction. Flash PMIs for the Eurozone provided some optimism, as private sector activity showed signs of recovery and the manufacturing contraction eased. Meanwhile, the ECB is widely expected to implement another 25bps cut to the key deposit rate next week. In France, the budget debate continues, as the newly nominated government faces once again the challenge of passing the budget bill through a divided parliament. The spread between French and German yields, which reflects the risk premium for holding French debt, stood at around 77bps. This compares to 50bps in May of last year, before President Macron called a snap election.

10年期意大利BTP收益率约为3.65%，与欧洲同行一致，因为交易员评估了强于预期的PMI数据，并继续评估特朗普的政策。投资者还展望了下周欧洲央行的货币政策决定。欧元区和德国的快速PMI提供了一些乐观情绪，因为私营部门活动显示出复苏的迹象，制造业收缩有所缓解。与此同时，特朗普总统似乎软化了他对普遍关税的立场，并主张立即降低利率。人们普遍预计，继2024年四次降息之后，欧洲央行下周将再次下调关键存款利率25个基点。意大利和德国收益率之间的利差约为112个基点，这是衡量持有意大利债务风险溢价的指标。相比之下，12月初的低点为104.5个基点，为2021年10月以来的最低水平。

The yield on the 10-year Italian BTP was around 3.65%, in line with its European peers, as traders assessed stronger-than-expected PMI data and continued to evaluate Trump's policies. Investors also looked ahead to next week's ECB monetary policy decision. Flash PMIs for the Eurozone and Germany provided some optimism, as private sector activity showed signs of recovery and the manufacturing contraction eased. Meanwhile, President Trump appeared to soften his stance on universal tariffs and advocated for an immediate drop in interest rates. The ECB is widely expected to implement another 25bps cut to the key deposit rate next week, following four reductions in 2024. The spread between Italian and German yields, a measure of the risk premium for holding Italian debt, stood at approximately 112 basis points. This compares to a low of 104.5 bps reached in early December, marking the narrowest level since October 2021.