法国10年期OAT的收益率约为3.3%，与欧洲同行一致，因为交易员评估了强于预期的PMI数据，并继续评估特朗普总统的政策。投资者还展望了下周欧洲央行的货币政策决定，以寻求进一步的方向。随着私营部门活动显示出复苏迹象，制造业收缩有所缓解，欧元区的快速PMI提供了一些乐观情绪。与此同时，人们普遍预计欧洲央行下周将再次下调关键存款利率25个基点。在法国，预算辩论仍在继续，因为新提名的政府再次面临在分裂的议会中通过预算法案的挑战。法国和德国收益率之间的利差约为77个基点，反映了持有法国债务的风险溢价。相比之下，去年5月，在马克龙总统宣布提前选举之前，这一数字为50个基点。

The yield on France's 10-Year OAT stood at around 3.3%, in line with its European peers, as traders assessed stronger-than-expected PMI data and continued to evaluate President Trump's policies. Investors also looked ahead to next week's ECB monetary policy decision for further direction. Flash PMIs for the Eurozone provided some optimism, as private sector activity showed signs of recovery and the manufacturing contraction eased. Meanwhile, the ECB is widely expected to implement another 25bps cut to the key deposit rate next week. In France, the budget debate continues, as the newly nominated government faces once again the challenge of passing the budget bill through a divided parliament. The spread between French and German yields, which reflects the risk premium for holding French debt, stood at around 77bps. This compares to 50bps in May of last year, before President Macron called a snap election.

CAC 40指数周五上涨1%，至7970点，连续第九个交易日上涨，并保持在七个多月来的最高水平。此次反弹主要是由于奢侈品股大幅上涨，以及美国总统唐纳德·特朗普呼吁立即降低利率，敦促其他国家效仿。开云集团股价飙升8.5%，达到2024年9月以来的最高水平，而欧莱雅股价上涨3%，达到三个月来的最高点。与此同时，LVMH上涨2.9%，达到2024年6月以来的最高水平，爱马仕上涨1.9%，达到历史最高水平。这一激增受到博柏利第三季度同比零售额下降4%低于预期的影响，以及对中国关税可能放松的乐观情绪。本周，该指数有望连续第三周大幅上涨。与此同时，在经济方面，法国制造业活动在2025年1月以较慢的速度收缩，而服务业则略有下滑。

The CAC 40 climbed 1% to 7,970 on Friday, marking its ninth consecutive session of gains and remaining at its highest level in over seven months. The rally was largely driven by significant gains in luxury stocks, along with U.S. President Donald Trump’s call for an immediate reduction in interest rates, urging other countries to follow suit. Kering surged 8.5%, hitting its highest level since September 2024, while L'Oréal climbed 3% to a three-month high. At the same time, LVMH gained 2.9%, reaching its highest level since June 2024, and Hermès rose 1.9% to an all-time high. The surge was influenced by Burberry's smaller-than-expected 4% decline in Q3 like-for-like retail sales, coupled with optimism over a potential easing of tariffs on China. Over the week, the index is on track for its third consecutive week of sharp gains. Meanwhile, on the economic front, French manufacturing activity contracted at a slower rate in January 2025, while the services sector saw a slight downturn.

据初步估计，HCOB法国服务业采购经理人指数从2024年12月的49.3降至2025年1月的48.9，低于市场预期的49.3。这标志着连续第五个月出现收缩，主要原因是需求疲软。新订单连续第八个月下降，尽管是自2024年8月以来最慢的速度，一些人表示客户兴趣的回升和市场状况的改善有助于缓和整体低迷。服务业的裁员加剧，主要是由于临时合同到期和自愿离职没有得到替代。在成本方面，投入价格以2024年8月以来的最快速度上涨，主要原因是工资支出增加。然而，受竞争压力、利率下降和材料成本降低的影响，服务公司自2021年2月以来首次降低了销售价格。

The HCOB France Services PMI dropped to 48.9 in January 2025, down from 49.3 in December 2024 and falling short of market expectations of 49.3, according to preliminary estimates. This marked the fifth consecutive month of contraction, driven primarily by subdued demand. New orders declined for the eighth consecutive month, although at the slowest pace since August 2024, with some citing a pickup in client interest and improving market conditions that helped moderate the overall downturn. Job cuts in the services sector intensified, largely due to the expiration of temporary contracts and the non-replacement of voluntary departures. On the cost front, input prices rose at the fastest pace since August 2024, primarily due to higher salary expenses. However, services firms reduced their selling prices for the first time since February 2021, influenced by competitive pressures, falling interest rates, and cheaper material costs.

在巴黎，CAC 40指数周五上涨63点，涨幅0.80%。开云集团（8.21%）、Stellantis NV（3.22%）和保乐力加（3.05%）领涨。最大的输家是赛峰集团（-0.47%）、依视路（-0.43%）和泰雷兹（-0.36%）。

In Paris, the CAC 40 Index is picking up 63 points or 0.80 percent on Friday. Gains are led by Kering (8.21%), Stellantis NV (3.22%) and Pernod Ricard (3.05%). Biggest losers are Safran (-0.47%), Essilor (-0.43%) and Thales (-0.36%).