俄罗斯卢布/人民币 (RUBCNY) 加自选

随着交易员评估该国的经济和货币前景，俄罗斯10年期自由贸易区的收益率保持在15-16%的水平，约为两年半以来的高点。在9月份的会议上，俄罗斯央行将关键利率上调100个基点至19%，这表明10月份有可能再次加息。政策制定者还将今年的通胀预测上调至6.5%-7%，而目前的通胀率为9.1%。通货膨胀的激增主要是由政府军事开支增加造成的经济压力造成的，这推高了工资，超过了经济满足需求的能力。央行行长Elvira Nabiullina最近警告称，滞胀的风险在于持续的通货膨胀和经济增长放缓。

The yield on the Russian 10-year OFZ remained between the 15-16% level, around 2-1/2-years highs, as traders evaluate the country's economic and monetary outlook. In its September meeting, the Bank of Russia raised its key interest rate by 100 basis points to 19%, signaling the possibility of another hike in October. Policymakers also raised their inflation forecast for the year to 6.5%-7%, while inflation currently sits at 9.1%. The inflation surge is primarily driven by the economic strain from increased government military spending, which has pushed up wages and exceeded the economy’s capacity to meet demand. Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina recently warned of the risk of stagflation, with persistent inflation coupled with slowing economic growth.

中国10年期政府债券收益率跌至2.06%左右，在公布令人失望的经济数据后徘徊在历史低点附近。2024年8月，工业生产同比放缓至4.5%的五个月低点，低于预期的4.8%的增长，低于上月的5.1%。零售销售也疲软，同比仅增长2.1%，低于2.5%的预期，比上月2.7%的增长有所放缓。此外，失业率微升至5.3%的六个月高点，超过了市场预测和7月份的5.2%。失业率上升与工业和消费活动疲软的结合加深了人们对中国经济前景的担忧，加剧了进一步刺激经济的呼声。交易员们现在期待着中国人民银行即将于周五宣布的关键贷款利率决定，特别是1年期贷款最优惠利率和5年期贷款利率。

China's 10-year government bond yield fell to around 2.06%, hovering near historic lows following the release of underwhelming economic data. Industrial production eased to a five-month low of 4.5% year-on-year in August 2024, missing the forecasted 4.8% rise and down from 5.1% in the previous month. Retail sales also weakened, increasing only 2.1% year-on-year, falling short of the 2.5% expectation and slowing from the previous month's 2.7% growth. Moreover, the unemployment rate edged up to a six-month high of 5.3%, surpassing both market forecasts and July's 5.2% reading. The combination of rising joblessness and softening industrial and consumer activity deepens concerns over China's economic outlook, intensifying calls for further stimulus. Traders now look ahead to the People's Bank of China's upcoming decisions on key lending rates, particularly the 1-year loan prime rate and the 5-year rate, to be announced on Friday.

离岸人民币兑美元汇率跌至7.10左右，受中国经济数据弱于预期的压力。2024年8月，工业生产同比放缓至4.5%的五个月低点，低于4.8%的预测，低于7月份的5.1%。同样，零售额同比增长放缓至2.1%，低于2.5%的预期，比上月的2.7%有所放缓。此外，与市场预测和7月份的5.2%相比，8月份的失业率微升至5.3%的六个月高点。失业率上升，加上工业和消费活动减弱，加剧了人们对中国经济前景的担忧，进一步表明需要采取额外的刺激措施。现在，人们的注意力转向了中国央行即将就关键贷款利率做出的决定，特别是将于周五公布的1年期贷款最优惠利率和5年期贷款利率。

The offshore yuan slipped to around 7.10 per dollar, pressured by weaker-than-expected economic data from China. Industrial production slowed to a five-month low of 4.5% year-on-year in August 2024, missing the 4.8% forecast and down from 5.1% in July. Similarly, retail sales growth moderated to 2.1% year-on-year, falling short of expectations of 2.5% and slowing from 2.7% in the previous month. Additionally, the unemployment rate edged up to a six-month high of 5.3% in August, compared to market forecasts and July’s reading of 5.2%. This rising joblessness, coupled with weakening industrial and consumer activity, heightened concerns over China’s economic outlook, further signaling the need for additional stimulus measures. Attention now turns to the PBoC's upcoming decisions on key lending rates, particularly the 1-year loan prime rate and the 5-year rate, which are set to be announced on Friday.

中国10年期政府债券收益率降至2.06%的历史最低点。在过去的4周里，中国10年期债券收益率下降了8.20个基点，在过去的12个月里，它下降了55.60个基点。

China 10 Year Government Bond Yield decreased to an all-time low of 2.06%. Over the past 4 weeks, China 10Y Bond Yield lost 8.20 basis points, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 55.60 basis points.