美元/人民币 (USDCNY) 加自选

周五，10年期美国国债收益率降至4.63%左右，扭转了唐纳德·特朗普总统敦促美联储降低利率后两天的上涨趋势。尽管如此，人们普遍预计美联储将在下周的政策会议上保持利率不变，市场预计7月份将降息，并可能在今年晚些时候再次降息。与市场预期相反，特朗普自就职以来也没有实施激进的关税。然而，他最近威胁要对中国、欧盟、加拿大、墨西哥和其他金砖国家征收关税，同时也发出减税和促进人工智能基础设施投资的信号。这些措施与扩张性财政政策相一致，这可能会加剧通胀压力。

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note dropped to around 4.63% on Friday, reversing a two-day rise after President Donald Trump urged the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. Despite this, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep rates unchanged at next week’s policy meeting, with markets anticipating a rate cut in July and possibly another reduction later in the year. Trump has also refrained from implementing aggressive tariffs since his inauguration, contrary to market expectations. However, he recently threatened tariffs against China, the EU, Canada, Mexico, and other BRICS nations, while also signaling tax cuts and promoting investment in AI infrastructure. These measures align with an expansionary fiscal policy, which could heighten inflationary pressures.

随着特朗普关税担忧减弱，在岸人民币强劲反弹。人民币是抵御特朗普关税的第一道防线。北京方面肯定为此做好了准备，因为自特朗普11月当选总统以来，它允许人民币大幅下跌。

Onshore yuan posts strong rally as Trump tariff fears abate.The yuan currency was the first line of defense against Trump's tariffs. And Beijing definitely prepped for that as it allowed the currency to fall considerably since Trump won the presidency in November.

美元主导地位面临风险？欧元/美元飙升，美元/日元对鹰派日本央行持观望态度。金沙可能会在美元指数（DXY）下移动，看跌的晚星模式与疲软的动量信号相一致。欧元/美元从下跌的楔形中走高，而美元/日元在日本央行周五鹰派加息后呈关键上升趋势。

Dollar Dominance at Risk? EUR/USD Surges, USD/JPY Teeters on Hawkish BoJ.Sands may shifting under the US Dollar Index (DXY), with a bearish evening star pattern aligning with weakening momentum signals. EUR/USD has broken higher from a falling wedge, while USD/JPY is fliting with a critical uptrend following the BoJ's hawkish hike on Friday.

晨标：特朗普第一周对中国态度宽松。Tom Westbrook展望欧洲和全球市场的未来

Morning Bid: Trump goes easy on China in his first week.A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Tom Westbrook