瑞郎/南非兰特 (CHFZAR) 加自选

2024年11月，南非较大城市批准的建筑计划价值同比下降2%，至87亿南非兰特，而前一个月增长了21.6%。这是自8月以来的首次下降，也是自去年6月以来的最大降幅，原因是扩建和改建许可证下降了7.8%。另一方面，非住宅楼宇的许可证在10月份上涨155%后，以2.4%的速度缓慢增长，而住宅楼宇许可证在上个月上涨8.3%后保持不变。

The value of building plans approved in South Africa's larger municipalities slumped by 2% year-on-year to ZAR 8.7 billion in November 2024, following a 21.6% rise in the prior month. This marks the first decrease since August and the steepest since June last year, prompted by a 7.8% drop in permits for additions & alterations. On the other hand, permits for non-residential buildings increased at a slower 2.4%, after a 155% jump in October while permits for residential buildings remained unchanged after an 8.3% rise in the previous month.

瑞士央行的施莱格尔：尽管不受欢迎，但负利率仍然是一种工具。瑞士央行行长马丁·施莱格尔今天在达沃斯世界经济论坛上表示，鉴于目前的政策利率为0.50%，“我们仍有一些调整空间”。但他排除了对未来利率变动的任何坚定承诺。

SNB's Schlegel: Negative rates remain a tool, despite being unpopular.SNB Chair Martin Schlegel said today at the World Economic Forum in Davos that with the policy rate currently at 0.50%, “we still have some room” for adjustments. But he ruled out any firm commitment on future rate moves.

2024年11月，南非零售额同比增长7.7%，此前一个月下调后增长6.2%，超过了市场预测的5.5%的增长。这标志着零售活动连续第9个月增长，也是自2022年7月以来最强劲的增长，主要受普通经销商销售额的推动（+11.9%）；纺织品、服装、鞋类和皮革制品零售商（+9.5%）和家用家具、电器和设备零售商（+9.4%）。经季节性调整的月度数据显示，11月份零售业增长0.8%，而前一个月增长1.6%。截至2024年11月的三个月内，零售贸易销售额同比增长5.1%。

South Africa’s retail sales advanced by 7.7% over a year in November 2024, following a downwardly revised 6.2% rise in the prior month and surpassing market forecasts of a 5.5% increase. This marked the 9th consecutive month of growth in retail activity and the strongest since July 2022, mainly driven by sales at general dealers (+11.9%); retailers in textiles, clothing, footwear and leather goods (+9.5%) and retailers in household furniture, appliances and equipment (+9.4%). On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, retail trade rose by 0.8% in November, after a 1.6% increase in the previous month. Retail trade sales increased by 5.1% in the three months ended November 2024 compared to the same period a year ago.

南非兰特兑美元汇率约为18.5，为约一个月来的最高点，受美元走软和贵金属价格上涨的推动，尤其是黄金。投资者仍然关注美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的政策对全球增长、通货膨胀和利率的潜在影响。在国内，南非12月的整体通胀率从11月的2.9%微升至3.0%，低于3.2%的预测，这提振了本月晚些时候降息25个基点的预期。通货膨胀率仍处于新加坡储备银行3%至6%目标区间的下限，远低于4.5%的中点。然而，在2024年两次降息之后，预计2025年降息将放缓，部分原因是特朗普的总统任期。南非储备银行行长Lesetja Kganyago警告称，激进的关税可能会推高价格，尽管长期影响仍不确定。兰特也受到国内经济增长强劲预期的支撑。

The South African rand traded around 18.5 per USD, its highest in about a month, boosted by a softer dollar and rising precious metal prices, especially gold. Investors remained focused on the potential impact of US President Donald Trump’s policies on global growth, inflation, and interest rates. Domestically, South Africa’s headline inflation ticked up slightly to 3.0% in December, from November's 2.9% and below the 3.2% forecast, bolstering expectations of a 25bps rate cut later this month. Inflation remains at the lower end of the SARB’s 3% to 6% target range, well below the 4.5% midpoint. However, interest rate cuts are expected to slow in 2025 after two cuts in 2024, partly due to Trump’s presidency. SARB Governor Lesetja Kganyago warned that aggressive tariffs could drive prices higher, though the long-term effects remain uncertain. The rand has also been supported by expectations of stronger domestic growth.