澳元/波兰兹罗提 (AUDPLN) 加自选

澳元/美元从一个多月低点进一步回升，在美元走软的情况下攀升至0.6700以上。澳元/美元对建立在前一天从0.6600中位附近反弹的基础上，即超过一个月低点，并在周五连续第二天获得正牵引力。这一势头使现货价格在欧洲市场上半年回升至0.6700大关以上，这是由多种因素共同推动的。

AUD/USD recovers further from over one-month low, climbs beyond 0.6700 amid weaker USD.The AUD/USD pair builds on the previous day's bounce from the vicinity of mid-0.6600s, or over a one-month low and gains positive traction for the second straight day on Friday. The momentum lifts spot prices back above the 0.6700 mark during the first half of the European session and is sponsored by a combination of factors.

周五，澳元升值超过0.67美元，延续了前一交易日的涨幅，因为中国乐观的经济数据提振了澳大利亚最大贸易伙伴的需求前景。鉴于澳大利亚经济对中国出口的依赖，澳元被广泛认为是人民币的流动性代表。周四，澳元从五周低点反弹，强劲的国内就业报告强化了澳大利亚储备银行货币政策的鹰派前景。数据显示，9月份澳大利亚经济增加了64100个工作岗位，远高于预测的25000个，而失业率保持在4.1%。数据公布后，市场减少了对澳大利亚储备银行12月降息的押注。澳大利亚储备银行副行长Sarah Hunter本周早些时候也警告称，在持续的物价上涨压力下，央行仍致力于控制通胀。

The Australian dollar appreciated past $0.67 on Friday, extending gains from the previous session as upbeat economic data in China bolstered the demand outlook in Australia’s largest trading partner. The aussie is widely considered as a liquid proxy for the yuan given Australia’s economic reliance on exports to China. On Thursday, the local currency rebounded from five-week lows as a strong domestic jobs report reinforced a hawkish outlook on Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy. Data showed that Australia’s economy added 64,100 jobs in September, well above forecast of 25,000, while the unemployment rate stayed at 4.1%. Markets scaled back bets on a December rate cut from the RBA following the data. RBA Deputy Governor Sarah Hunter also warned earlier this week that the central bank remains committed to keeping inflation under control amid persistent upward price pressures.

周五，标准普尔/澳交所200指数下跌0.6%，至8310点左右，从历史高点回落，矿业股在基础大宗商品价格疲软的情况下领跌。这些举措出台之际，中国的房地产行业简报未能提供积极的刺激措施，损害了金属的需求前景。在货币政策方面，强于预期的国内就业数据促使交易员撤回了对澳大利亚储备银行今年降息的押注。重量级铁矿石矿商领跌，必和必拓集团（-1.8%）、Fortescue（-2.3%）和力拓（-0.6%）大幅下跌。在企业新闻方面，Flight Centre股价下跌15%，此前该旅行社公布了第一季度的运营业绩，并发布了交易更新，预示着不确定的增长前景。本周，基准指数仍有望上涨约1%。

The S&P/ASX 200 Index fell 0.6% to around 8,310 on Friday, retreating from all-time highs, with mining stocks leading the decline amid weaker underlying commodity prices. Those moves came as China’s property sector briefing failed to deliver aggressive stimulus measures, hurting the demand outlook for metals. On the monetary policy front, stronger-than-expected domestic jobs data prompted traders to dial back bets on a Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate cut this year. Heavyweight iron ore miners led the decline, with sharp losses from BHP Group (-1.8%), Fortescue (-2.3%) and Rio Tinto (-0.6%). In corporate news, Flight Centre tumbled 15% after the travel agent reported its operational performance for the first quarter and issued a trading update, flagging an uncertain growth outlook. Over the week, the benchmark index is still on track to gain about 1%.

澳元/美元预测：美元走强和对中国的担忧掩盖了澳大利亚强劲的数据。那些预计澳元/美元因澳大利亚国内经济走强而转为看涨的人应该意识到，这种对风险敏感的货币对将面临许多外部挑战，最终可能会在短期内阻碍其发展。

AUD/USD forecast: US dollar strength and China concerns overshadow strong Australian data.Those expecting the AUD/USD forecast to turn bullish because of a stronger domestic economy in Australia should realise that this risk-sensitive currency pair will be facing many external challenges that could ultimately hold it back in the near-term outlook.