标准普尔/多伦多证交所综合指数周一基本持平，收于24256点，与美国市场的跌幅一致，因为投资者正在为周二美国总统大选和美联储周四的决定的不确定性做准备，石油生产商限制了损失。医疗保健和科技板块拖累指数，Bausch Health下跌5.3%，Shopify下跌0.7%。然而，大宗商品库存，尤其是石油生产商的上涨为该指数提供了一些支撑，加拿大天然气公司（0.9%）、森科尔公司（1.4%）和Cenovus公司（3.2%）在欧佩克+选择推迟增加石油产量的计划后上涨，刺激了原油价格的急剧上涨。投资者在为美国和加拿大市场可能动荡的一周做准备时，平衡了这些行业走势。

The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed mostly flat at the 24,256 mark on Monday, aligning with losses in U.S. markets as investors braced for the uncertainties of Tuesday's U.S. presidential election and Thursday’s Federal Reserve decision, with oil producers limiting the losses. Healthcare and technology sectors dragged on the index, as Bausch Health declined 5.3% and Shopify slipped 0.7%. However, gains in commodity stocks, especially oil producers, provided some support to the index, with Canadian Natural (0.9%), Suncor (1.4%) and Cenovus (3.2%) booking gains after OPEC+ opted to delay plans to increase oil output, spurring a sharp rise in crude prices. Investors balanced these sectoral moves as they prepared for a potentially volatile week in both U.S. and Canadian markets.

加元兑美元汇率在触及10月25日以来的最高水平后，约为1.389。随着市场重新评估周二美国中期选举的潜在结果，油价上涨和投资者情绪的转变支撑了加元的上涨。对共和党获胜的预期正在改变人们对CAD的看法，因为共和党的胜利可能意味着更严格的贸易政策，包括对进口商品的关税。加拿大约75%的商品出口到美国，可能会受到影响，特别是如果特朗普在与卡玛拉·哈里斯的激烈竞争中采取保护主义态度。投资者猜测，新的关税可能会推高美国通胀，降低美联储降息的可能性。美元兑其他主要货币下跌，对加元的看跌押注达到8月中旬以来的最高水平。在欧佩克+决定推迟增产计划后，作为加拿大主要出口产品的石油价格上涨2.85%，至每桶71.47美元，进一步支撑了加元。

The Canadian dollar traded around 1.389 per USD, after touching its strongest level since October 25. The loonie’s rise was supported by increasing oil prices and shifts in investor sentiment as markets reassessed the potential outcome of Tuesday’s U.S. midterm elections. Expectations of a Republican victory are shifting sentiment in favor of the CAD, as a GOP win could mean tighter trade policies, including tariffs on imports. Canada, which exports about 75% of its goods to the US, may be impacted, especially if Trump, in a close race with Kamala Harris, pursues a protectionist approach. Investors speculate that new tariffs could push US inflation higher, reducing the likelihood of Fed rate cuts. The US dollar fell against other major currencies, while bearish bets on the CAD hit their highest level since mid-August. Further bolstering the CAD, oil—a key Canadian export—saw prices rise 2.85% to $71.47 per barrel after OPEC+ decided to delay plans to increase production.

标准普尔多伦多证交所综合指数周一微涨至24330点，表现优于美国同行，原因是大宗商品生产巨头对多伦多基准指数的权重很大，而投资者在明天的美国总统大选和美联储周四的决定之前面临不确定性。石油生产商录得最大涨幅，受益于欧佩克+决定推迟减产后原油基准的大幅上涨。加拿大自然和Cenovus各上涨近2%。反过来，随着市场等待中国政府的刺激方案，贱金属矿商受到贱金属上涨的支撑，第一量子上涨2.5%。另一方面，银行与加拿大皇家银行和道明银行的交易略有亏损，而丰业银行和布鲁克菲尔德银行的股价上涨了近2%。

The S&P TSX Composite Index edged higher to the 24,330 mark on Monday, outperforming its US counterparts due to the heavy weight that commodity-producing giants have on Toronto’s benchmark index, while investors headed to uncertainties ahead of the US presidential election tomorrow and the Fed’s decision on Thursday. Oil producers recorded the sharpest gains, benefitting from a sharp increase in crude oil benchmarks after OPEC+ decided to postpone the wind-down of its output cuts. Canadian Natural and Cenovus added close to 2% each. In turn, base metal miners were supported by gains for base metals as markets await stimulus insights from China’s government, with First Quantum adding 2.5%. On the other hand, banks were mixed with RBC and TD trading slightly in the red, while Scotiabank and Brookfield jumped close to 2%.

每周底线：加拿大的利率难题；好事过头反成坏事。上周，我们公布了加拿大银行决定大幅降息50个基点的消息。一些客户表示，有必要加快下降速度，以防范抵押贷款续期风险。

The Weekly Bottom Line: Canada's interest rate conundrum; Too much of a good thing.Last week, we published on the Bank of Canada's decision to deliver an outsized 50-basis-point interest rate cut. Some clients have commented that a faster descent is necessary to head off mortgage renewal risks.