匈牙利股票指数 (BUX) 加自选

2024年第三季度，匈牙利的经常账户盈余从去年同期的7.8亿欧元收窄至7亿欧元，低于市场共识的7.3亿欧元盈余。商品账户录得6.2亿欧元的赤字，而去年同期为3.1亿欧元的盈余。与此同时，服务账户盈余从29.8亿欧元增至32.3亿欧元。此外，初级收入差距从19.1亿欧元降至14亿欧元，次级收入缺口从6亿欧元降至5亿欧元。

Hungary’s current account surplus narrowed to EUR 0.70 billion in the third quarter of 2024, from EUR 0.78 billion in the corresponding period of the previous year and below market consensus of a EUR 0.73 billion surplus. The goods account recorded a EUR 0.62 billion deficit, shifting from a EUR 0.31 billion surplus a year earlier. Meanwhile, the services account surplus rose to EUR 3.23 billion from EUR 2.98 billion. Additionally, the primary income gap decreased to EUR 1.40 billion from EUR 1.91 billion as well as the secondary income shortfall to EUR 0.50 billion from EUR 0.60 billion.

2024年10月，匈牙利的贸易顺差从去年同期的10.92亿欧元收窄至10.39亿欧元，但高于初步估计的9.49亿欧元。这标志着连续第十个贸易顺差期，出口同比下降0.5%，至129.27亿欧元，而进口下降0.1%，至118.88亿欧元。欧盟成员国的份额为出口的76%和进口的71%。考虑到1月至10月期间，该国的贸易顺差为103.68亿欧元。

Hungary’s trade surplus narrowed to EUR 1,039 million in October 2024, from EUR 1,092 million in the corresponding month of the previous year, but above preliminary estimates of EUR 949 million. This marked the tenth consecutive period of trade surplus, as exports fell by 0.5% from a year earlier to EUR 12,927 million, while imports dropped at a softer 0.1% to EUR 11,888 million. The share of EU member states was 76% of exports and 71 % of imports. Considering the January to October period, the country’s trade surplus was recorded at EUR 10,368 million.

2024年10月，匈牙利的平均工资总额同比增长12.9%，达到637245福林，而前一个月增长了12.5%。如果不考虑一次性付款和奖金的影响，10月份的工资比去年同期高出13.5%，达到613100福林。考虑到1月至10月期间，平均总工资增长了13.6%。

Hungary’s gross average wages increased by 12.9% year-on-year to HUF 637,245 in October 2024, following a 12.5% rise in the previous month. Without the impact of one-off payments and bonuses, October’s wages were 13.5% higher than in the same period a year ago at HUF 613,100. Considering the January-October period, average gross wages grew by 13.6%.

正如市场所预期的那样，匈牙利央行在2024年12月的会议上连续第三次决定将基准利率维持在6.5%不变，以维持自去年以来的一系列降息。抵押贷款和隔夜存款的利率也分别保持不变，分别为7.5%和5.5%。央行指出，最新数据显示，国内工业活动放缓，导致匈牙利第三季度国内生产总值每年都在萎缩。尽管如此，该行还指出，通货膨胀在第四季度有所回升，并将在2025年初超过其容忍区间，然后开始反通货膨胀进程。货币理事会认为，目前的利率仍然适合减缓通货膨胀，同时防止经济增长陷入进一步压力。

The central bank of Hungary maintained its base rate unchanged at 6.5% for the third straight decision in its December 2024 meeting, as expected by markets, to maintain its pause from a series of rate cuts since last year. Rates for collateralized loans and overnight deposits also remained unchanged at 7.5% and 5.5%, respectively. The central bank noted that the latest data showed that domestic industrial activity has slowed, driving the Hungarian GDP to contract annually in the third quarter. Still, the bank also noted that inflation picked up in the fourth quarter and is due to increase past its tolerance band in early 2025 before starting the disinflation process. The Monetary Council deemed that the current interest rates remain appropriate to slow inflation while preventing growth from falling into further pressure.