阿根廷MERVAL指数 (Merval) 加自选

2024年10月，阿根廷的经济活动估计值同比下降0.7%，此前9月向上修正了2.5%的下降，好于预期的2.2%的下降。主要驱动因素包括农业增长放缓（2.3%对9月份的5.2%），采矿和采石业增长更快（7.4%对7.8%），而运输业的收缩加速（-0.6%对-0.1%）。与此同时，建筑业（-14.5%对-15.0%）、公用事业（-0.4%对-5.2%）和制造业（-2.3%对-5.9%）的收缩放缓。经季节性调整的数据显示增长了0.6%，而趋势周期指标增长了0.2%。

Argentina's economic activity estimator dropped by 0.7% year-on-year in October 2024, following an upwardly revised 2.5% decline in September, and better than the anticipated 2.2% drop. Key drivers included slower agriculture (2.3% vs. 5.2% in September) and mining and quarrying grew faster (7.4% vs. 7.8%), while the contraction accelerated for transportation (-0.6% vs. -0.1%). Meanwhile, contractions slowed in construction (-14.5% vs. -15.0%), contraction in utilities (-0.4% vs. -5.2%), and manufacturing (-2.3% vs. -5.9%). Seasonally adjusted data showed a 0.6% increase, while the trend-cycle indicator increased by 0.2%.

2024年第三季度，阿根廷的经常账户盈余为14.01亿美元，与去年同期60.5亿美元的赤字大幅逆转。商品账户从2023年第三季度的13.7亿美元赤字大幅转变为53.7亿美元盈余。与此同时，服务缺口从16.8亿美元略微缩小至16.1亿美元。此外，一级账户赤字从34.6亿美元收窄至27.3亿美元，二级账户盈余从4.67亿美元降至3.63亿美元。

Argentina recorded a current account surplus of USD 1.401 billion in Q3 2024, a sharp reversal from the USD 6.05 billion deficit in the same period last year. The goods account shifted dramatically to a USD 5.37 billion surplus, up from a USD 1.37 billion deficit in Q3 2023. Meanwhile, the services gap slightly narrowed to USD 1.61 billion from USD 1.68 billion. Additionally, the primary account deficit narrowed to USD 2.73 billion from USD 3.46 billion, while the secondary account surplus fell to USD 363 million from USD 467 million, highlighting overall improvement despite some pressures.

2024年12月，阿根廷消费者信心指数从上个月的45.02升至46，创下2023年11月以来的最高水平。所有三个子指数的乐观情绪都有所改善，对个人财务状况的评估有所增加（11月为48.15对46.53），宏观经济状况（57.32对56.55），购买耐用品的意愿（32.62对31.97）。与去年同期相比，消费者信心指数为15.63%。

Argentina's consumer confidence indicator rose to 46 in December 2024, up from 45.02 in the previous month and marking its highest level since November 2023. Optimism improved across all three subindexes, assessments of personal financial situations increased (48.15 vs. 46.53 in November), the macroeconomic situation (57.32 vs. 56.55), and intentions to purchase durable goods (32.62 vs. 31.97). On a year-over-year basis, the Consumer Confidence Index soeared 15.63%.

2024年11月，阿根廷的贸易顺差为12.34亿美元，与一年前的5.59亿美元逆差相比出现了大幅逆转，远高于估计的7亿美元顺差。这标志着在经历了九个月的赤字后，连续第十二个月实现贸易顺差。贸易顺差是由出口激增31.6%至64.79亿美元推动的，其中农产品和原材料（56.9%）、制成品（15%）和农产品（55.1%）的销售强劲。与此同时，进口下降4.3%，至52.45亿美元，反映出中间产品（-13.4%）、资本货物配件（-5.3%）以及燃料和润滑油（-67.6%）的出货量减少。

Argentina posted a trade surplus of USD 1.234 billion in November 2024, a sharp turnaround from the USD 559 million deficit recorded a year earlier and well above the estimated USD 700 million surplus. This marks the twelfth consecutive month of positive trade balance after nine months of deficits. The surplus was driven by a 31.6% surge in exports to USD 6.479 billion, led by strong sales of agricultural products and raw materials (56.9%), manufactured goods (15%), and agricultural goods (55.1%). Meanwhile, imports declined 4.3% to USD 5.245 billion, reflecting reduced shipments of intermediate goods (-13.4%), accessories for capital goods (-5.3%), and fuels and lubricants (-67.6%).