埃及EGX30指数 (EgyptEGX30) 加自选

2024年11月，埃及的年度城市通货膨胀率从上个月的四个月高点26.5%降至25.5%，低于市场预期的26.4%。这标志着自2022年12月以来的最低通胀率，仍远高于央行5-9%的目标区间，主要是由于包括蔬菜在内的一些食品价格降温。食品和非酒精饮料（10月份为24.6%对27.3%）、酒精饮料、烟草和麻醉品（27.9%对37.4%）以及餐馆和酒店（33.8%对34.4%）的价格有所缓和。相比之下，住房和公用事业（16.5%对15.3%）以及交通（38.1%对31.6%）的成本加快。最近的通货膨胀主要是由于7月下旬燃料价格大幅上涨10-15%，8月地铁票价上涨25-33%，8月和9月电价上涨21-31%，10月中旬燃料价格上涨11-17%。按月计算，消费者价格从前一个月的1.1%降至2024年11月的0.5%。

The annual urban inflation rate in Egypt slowed to 25.5% in November 2024 from a four-month high of 26.5% in the previous month, below market expectations of 26.4%. This marked the lowest inflation rate since December 2022 and remained well above the central bank's target range of 5-9%, mainly due to cooling prices of some food items, including vegetables. Prices moderated for food and non-alcoholic beverages (24.6% vs 27.3% in October), alcoholic beverages, tobacco and narcotics (27.9% vs 37.4%), and restaurants and hotels (33.8% vs 34.4%). In contrast, costs accelerated for housing and utilities (16.5% vs 15.3%) and transport (38.1% vs 31.6%). Recent inflation was mainly driven by sharp fuel hikes of 10-15% in late July, a 25-33% metro ticket increase in August, a 21-31% rise in electricity tariffs in August and September, and an 11-17% fuel increase in mid-October. On a monthly basis, consumer prices eased to 0.5% in November 2024 from 1.1% in the previous month.

标准普尔全球埃及采购经理人指数从10月份的49微升至2024年11月的49.2，连续第三个月保持收缩性，但仅表明私营部门活动略有恶化。由于客户需求持续疲软，产量和新订单继续下降，尽管收缩率略有缓解。然而，制造业的订单和产出都略有增长，部分抵消了建筑、批发、零售和服务业的下滑。与此同时，就业水平在经历了四个月的上升后有所下降，裁员与销售额下降和商业信心减弱有关。关于价格，投入成本通胀降至四个月低点，反映出工资增长放缓，而销售价格通胀有所缓和。最后，尽管出现了一些复苏迹象，但商业信心仍然低迷，在持续的经济挑战中，企业对未来的活动表示不确定。

The S&P Global Egypt PMI edged higher to 49.2 in November 2024, up from 49 in October, remaining contractionary for the third straight month, but indicative of only a slight deterioration in the private sector activity. Output and new orders continued to decline due to persistently weak customer demand, though the rate of contraction eased slightly. However, the manufacturing sector saw modest growth in both orders and output, partially offsetting declines in construction, wholesale, retail, and services sectors. Meanwhile, employment levels decreased after a four-month rise, with job reductions linked to lower sales and weaker business confidence. Regarding prices, input cost inflation eased to a four-month low, reflecting slower wage growth, while selling price inflation moderated. Lastly, despite some recovery signs, business confidence remained subdued, with firms expressing uncertainty about future activity amid ongoing economic challenges.

2024年11月，埃及央行连续第八个月将利率维持在27.25%的历史新高，反映了全球和国内经济状况。10月份，年度整体通胀率稳定在26.5%，核心通胀率降至24.4%，食品通胀率降至27.3%的两年低点。这些趋势，加上通胀预期的改善和月度通胀动态的正常化，表明通胀将继续走上抑制通胀的道路，尽管会受到有管理的价格调整的影响。2024年第三季度实际GDP增长加速，而第二季度为2.4%，预计第四季度将进一步增长，尽管产出仍低于潜在水平。预计到2024年，通货膨胀率将徘徊在目前的水平附近，风险仍向上倾斜，但随着货币紧缩和有利的基数效应的形成，预计从2025年第一季度开始，通货膨胀将大幅缓解。

The Central Bank of Egypt kept its interest rate unchanged at a record high of 27.25% in November 2024, for the eighth consecutive month, reflecting global and domestic economic conditions. Annual headline inflation stabilized at 26.5% in October, while core inflation eased to 24.4%, and food inflation dropped to a two-year low of 27.3%. These trends, along with improved inflation expectations and normalized monthly inflation dynamics, point to a continued disinflationary path, though subject to administered price adjustments. Real GDP growth accelerated in Q3 2024 compared to 2.4% in Q2, with further gains anticipated in Q4, although output remains below potential. Inflation is expected to hover near current levels through 2024, with risks still skewed to the upside, but is forecast to ease significantly from Q1 2025 as monetary tightening and favorable base effects take hold.

2024年10月，埃及的年度城市通货膨胀率从9月份的26.4%连续第三个月加速至26.5%，而市场预期为27%。这标志着自6月以来的最高通胀率，仍远高于央行5-9%的目标区间。最近的通货膨胀主要是由于10月份燃料价格大幅上涨，平均上涨9.2%，而7月下旬上涨了10-15%，随后8月初地铁票价上涨了25-33%，8月和9月电价飙升了21-31%。此外，服装和鞋类（26.2%对25.6%）以及杂项商品和服务（21.8%对21.5%）的价格加速上涨。与此同时，食品和非酒精饮料价格有所放缓（9月份为27.3%对27.7%）。最新数据提高了CBE连续第五次将利率维持在27.25%的可能性。2024年10月，消费者价格指数在9月上涨2.1%后，每月上涨1.1%，为三个月来的最低水平。

The annual urban inflation rate in Egypt accelerated for the 3rd straight month to 26.5% in October 2024 from September’s 26.4%, compared to market expectations of 27%. It marked the highest inflation rate since June and remained well above the central bank's target range of 5-9%. Recent inflation was mainly boosted by sharp fuel hikes of an average of 9.2% in October, after a 10-15% hike in late July, followed by a 25-33% surge in metro ticket prices at the start of August, and a spike in electricity tariffs of 21-31% over August and September. Additionally, prices accelerated for clothing and footwear (26.2% vs 25.6%), and miscellaneous goods and services (21.8% vs 21.5%). Meanwhile, food and non-alcoholic beverage prices moderated (27.3% vs 27.7% in September). The latest data raised the chances of the CBE holding the interest rate at 27.25% for a 5th consecutive meeting. Monthly, consumer prices rose 1.1% in October 2024, the lowest in three months, after a 2.1% gain in September.