人民币/韩元 (CNYKRW) 加自选

美元兑韩元跌至26周低点1319.00。在过去的4周里，美元韩元下跌了2.25%，在过去的12个月里，韩元下跌了0.37%。

USDKRW decreased to a 26-week low of 1319.00. Over the past 4 weeks, US Dollar South Korean Won lost 2.25%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 0.37%.

韩元兑美元升值至1320韩元兑1美元，创下三周新高，因美元在美联储本周预期降息前走弱。市场目前预计，美联储将大幅降息50个基点的可能性更高，这与上周交易员倾向于适度降息25个基点的情况截然不同。在国内，投资者期待一系列经济报告，包括8月份的韩国生产者通胀数据和9月份的消费者和商业信心数据。与此同时，上周的数据显示，该国的年通胀率从7月的2.6%降至8月的2%，为2021年3月以来的最低水平。最新数据标志着价格增长连续第五个月低于3%，支持了韩国央行可能很快开始降息的观点。

The South Korean won appreciated toward 1,320 per dollar, hitting a three-week high as the dollar weakened ahead of an expected interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve this week. Markets are currently pricing in a higher chance that the Fed will deliver a larger 50 basis point rate reduction in a dramatic reversal from last week when traders were leaning toward a modest 25 bps rate cut. Domestically, investors look ahead to a slew of economic reports including South Korean producer inflation data for August and consumer and business confidence figures for September. Meanwhile, data last week showed that the country’s annual inflation rate slowed to 2% in August from 2.6% in July, the lowest reading since March 2021. The latest figure marked the fifth consecutive month that price growth stayed below 3%, supporting the view that the Bank of Korea may start cutting rates soon.

中国10年期政府债券收益率跌至2.06%左右，在公布令人失望的经济数据后徘徊在历史低点附近。2024年8月，工业生产同比放缓至4.5%的五个月低点，低于预期的4.8%的增长，低于上月的5.1%。零售销售也疲软，同比仅增长2.1%，低于2.5%的预期，比上月2.7%的增长有所放缓。此外，失业率微升至5.3%的六个月高点，超过了市场预测和7月份的5.2%。失业率上升与工业和消费活动疲软的结合加深了人们对中国经济前景的担忧，加剧了进一步刺激经济的呼声。交易员们现在期待着中国人民银行即将于周五宣布的关键贷款利率决定，特别是1年期贷款最优惠利率和5年期贷款利率。

China's 10-year government bond yield fell to around 2.06%, hovering near historic lows following the release of underwhelming economic data. Industrial production eased to a five-month low of 4.5% year-on-year in August 2024, missing the forecasted 4.8% rise and down from 5.1% in the previous month. Retail sales also weakened, increasing only 2.1% year-on-year, falling short of the 2.5% expectation and slowing from the previous month's 2.7% growth. Moreover, the unemployment rate edged up to a six-month high of 5.3%, surpassing both market forecasts and July's 5.2% reading. The combination of rising joblessness and softening industrial and consumer activity deepens concerns over China's economic outlook, intensifying calls for further stimulus. Traders now look ahead to the People's Bank of China's upcoming decisions on key lending rates, particularly the 1-year loan prime rate and the 5-year rate, to be announced on Friday.

离岸人民币兑美元汇率跌至7.10左右，受中国经济数据弱于预期的压力。2024年8月，工业生产同比放缓至4.5%的五个月低点，低于4.8%的预测，低于7月份的5.1%。同样，零售额同比增长放缓至2.1%，低于2.5%的预期，比上月的2.7%有所放缓。此外，与市场预测和7月份的5.2%相比，8月份的失业率微升至5.3%的六个月高点。失业率上升，加上工业和消费活动减弱，加剧了人们对中国经济前景的担忧，进一步表明需要采取额外的刺激措施。现在，人们的注意力转向了中国央行即将就关键贷款利率做出的决定，特别是将于周五公布的1年期贷款最优惠利率和5年期贷款利率。

The offshore yuan slipped to around 7.10 per dollar, pressured by weaker-than-expected economic data from China. Industrial production slowed to a five-month low of 4.5% year-on-year in August 2024, missing the 4.8% forecast and down from 5.1% in July. Similarly, retail sales growth moderated to 2.1% year-on-year, falling short of expectations of 2.5% and slowing from 2.7% in the previous month. Additionally, the unemployment rate edged up to a six-month high of 5.3% in August, compared to market forecasts and July’s reading of 5.2%. This rising joblessness, coupled with weakening industrial and consumer activity, heightened concerns over China’s economic outlook, further signaling the need for additional stimulus measures. Attention now turns to the PBoC's upcoming decisions on key lending rates, particularly the 1-year loan prime rate and the 5-year rate, which are set to be announced on Friday.