加元/日元 (CADJPY) 加自选

标准普尔/多伦多证交所综合指数周五微涨0.1%，收于25469点，标志着连续第九个交易日上涨，矿业股的强劲表现抵消了更广泛的市场谨慎。不确定性源于美国总统唐纳德·特朗普对加拿大和欧盟对美国贸易顺差的批评，他认为这是不公平的。他的言论再次引发了人们对之前提议的对加拿大和墨西哥进口商品征收25%关税的担忧，预计最早可能在2月1日宣布。尽管如此，矿业股表现优异，Agnico Eagle、Barrick Gold和Wheaton Precious在金价数月高点的支撑下上涨了1.2%至1.9%。在国内方面，加拿大12月的新房价指数下降了0.1%，反映了27个受访大都市地区的地区差异。本周，多伦多证交所上涨1.6%。

The S&P/TSX Composite Index edged 0.1% higher to close at 25,469 on Friday, marking a ninth consecutive session of gains as strong performance in mining equities offset broader market caution. Uncertainty stemmed from U.S. President Donald Trump’s criticism of the trade surpluses Canada and the EU hold with the United States, which he refered to as unfair. His remarks reignited concerns over the previously proposed 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports, with expectations that an announcement could come as early as February 1st. Despite this, mining stocks outperformed, with Agnico Eagle, Barrick Gold, and Wheaton Precious advancing between 1.2% and 1.9%, supported by multi-month highs in gold prices. On the domestic front, Canada’s new housing price index fell 0.1% in December, reflecting regional disparities across 27 surveyed metropolitan areas. For the week, the TSX posted a 1.6% gain.

由于关税谈判，日本加息拖累美元，美元兑日元再次下跌。由于日本央行加息情绪高涨，人们担心关税对美国经济的影响，美元兑日元汇率受到抑制。

USDJPY Down Again As Tariff Talk, Japan Rate Hike Weigh Down the Dollar.The USDJPY pair has been subdued by concerns over the impact of tariffs on the US economy amid BoJ interest rate hike sentiment.

加元兑美元汇率突破1.434，接近1月20日的一个月高点1.43，因美元走软和风险情绪改善。特朗普总统呼吁美联储立即降息，对美元造成压力，将DXY指数推至一个多月来的最低水平。然而，加元的涨幅仍受到持续的关税威胁的制约，包括拟议于2月1日将加拿大进口上调25%，这可能会进一步迫使加拿大央行下周将基准利率下调25个基点。此外，原油价格是大宗商品挂钩加元的关键驱动力，随着特朗普威胁对中国、加拿大和墨西哥征收关税，原油价格继续下跌，引发了人们对全球经济增长和石油需求的担忧。

The Canadian dollar strengthened past 1.434 per USD, nearing the one-month high of 1.43 seen January 20th, amid a weaker U.S. dollar and improved risk sentiment. President Trump's call for immediate Federal Reserve rate cuts weighed on the dollar, pushing the DXY to its lowest in over a month. However, the loonie's gains remain constrained by ongoing tariff threats, including a proposed 25% hike on Canadian imports set for February 1st, which could further pressure the Bank of Canada to cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points next week. Additionally, crude oil prices, a key driver for the commodity-linked loonie, extended their decline as Trump threatened tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico, raising concerns about global economic growth and oil demand.

加拿大10年期政府债券收益率保持在3.32%左右，此前从1月17日达到的9个月高点3.54%大幅回升，与美国10年期国债收益率不同。这扩大了加拿大与美国的收益率差距，反映出人们对不同货币政策的期望越来越高。虽然美联储可能会保持利率稳定，但在政治不确定性、经济增长疲软和通胀数据疲软的推动下，加拿大央行预计将放松。收益率差距的扩大增加了加拿大债券的压力，收益率对全球贸易政策和国内财政挑战引发的担忧加剧的风险规避做出了反应。

Canada's 10-year government bond yield held around 3.32%, following a sharp recovery from the nine-month high of 3.54% reached on January 17, diverging from the U.S. 10-year yield. This widened the Canada-U.S. yield spread, reflecting growing expectations of divergent monetary policies. While the Federal Reserve is likely to hold rates steady, the Bank of Canada is expected to ease, driven by political uncertainty, subdued economic growth, and soft inflation data. The widening yield gap has added pressure on Canadian bonds, with yields reacting to heightened risk aversion amid concerns over global trade policy and domestic fiscal challenges.