铁矿62fe (IronOre62fe) 加自选

周一，Ibovespa指数上涨1%，收于123500点以上，达到六周来的最高点，这得益于金融和零售业的上涨，以及对美联储即将结束紧缩周期的预期，这促使风险偏好和流入新兴市场的资金激增。包括淡水河谷和巴西国家石油公司在内的大宗商品相关股票受益于中国需求的强劲和价格的上涨，而金融和消费行业则受益于借贷条件的改善和积极的消费前景。随着税收改革取得进展，围绕财政纪律的乐观情绪再次增强，投资者信心进一步增强，这表明卢拉总统领导下的政治稳定。巴西银行、桑坦德银行、伊塔乌萨银行和Bradesco领涨，涨幅在1%至1.5%之间。

The Ibovespa climbed 1% to above the 123,500 level on Monday, reaching a six-week high fueled by gains in the financial and retail sectors, lifted by expectations that the US Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its tightening cycle, prompting a surge in risk appetite and inflows into emerging markets. Commodity-linked stocks, including Vale and Petrobras, are benefiting from stronger Chinese demand and rising prices, while the financial and consumer sectors are seeing gains from improved borrowing conditions and a positive consumption outlook. Investor confidence is further strengthened by renewed optimism surrounding fiscal discipline amid progress on tax reform, signaling political stability under President Lula. Banco do Brasil, Santander, Itaúsa, and Bradesco led the rise, with gains ranging from 1% to 1.5%.

欧元/美元、美元/日元和澳元/美元预测——美元继续小幅下跌。由于市场继续关注本周的央行会议，美元在周一交易时段的早些时候略有下跌。在这一点上，趋势仍然存在，但修正是残酷的。

EUR/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/USD Forecast – US Dollar Continues to Slip a Bit.The US dollar slipped a bit in the early hours of the Monday trading session, as the markets continue to look towards the central bank meetings this week. At this point, the trend remains, but the correction has been brutal.

巴西可能是特朗普贸易战的附带损害：McGeever。很少有国家比巴西更受美元和美国债券收益率飙升的打击。但这个国家有一件事要做——随着美国总统唐纳德·特朗普准备对美国的许多主要贸易伙伴征收惩罚性关税，巴西利亚不太可能成为他的保护主义火力。

Brazil could be collateral damage in Trump trade war: McGeever.Few countries have been hit harder by the soaring dollar and U.S. bond yields than Brazil. But the country has one thing going for it - as U.S. President Donald Trump prepares to levy punitive tariffs on many of America's major trading partners, Brasilia is unlikely to be in his protectionist line of fire.

2024年12月，巴西未偿还贷款价值在一个月内增长了1.4%，达到6.4万亿雷亚尔，此前一个月下调了1%。对企业的信贷急剧加速，与上月的1.1%相比增长了2.3%，而对家庭的信贷增长速度略慢，为0.8%，低于1%。与此同时，涵盖非专用信贷的巴西消费者和企业违约率从上个月的4.3%降至12月的4.1%。2024年，信贷业务增长了10.9%，与2023年同比增长8.1%相比有所加快。商业信贷（9.1%对2023年的4.7%）和家庭信贷（12.1%对10.5%）都出现了加速。

The value of outstanding loans in Brazil rose by 1.4% over a month to R$6.4 trillion in December 2024, following a downwardly revised 1% increase in the prior month. Credit to businesses accelerated sharply, rising by 2.3% compared to 1.1% in the previous month, while credit to households rose at a slightly slower pace of 0.8%, down from 1%. Meanwhile, a broad measure of Brazilian consumer and business default ratios, covering non-earmarked credit, fell to 4.1% in December from 4.3% in the previous month. In 2024, credit operations grew by 10.9%, accelerating compared to 2023, when the year-on-year expansion was 8.1%. The acceleration was observed in both business credit (9.1% vs 4.7% in 2023) and household credit (12.1% vs 10.5%).