CRB指数 (CRBIndex) 加自选

墨西哥比索兑美元汇率跌破20.6，接近20.85的三年低点，自年初以来，由于对美国关税的担忧再次出现，加上对Banxico的鸽派预期，这一低点已多次受到考验。周日，美国和哥伦比亚勉强避免了贸易战，此前白宫表示，这个南美国家已同意接受载有被驱逐移民的军用飞机，但他们最初拒绝了这一点。这再次引发了人们对特朗普贸易政策的担忧，尤其是预计2月1日对墨西哥商品征收高达25%关税的迫在眉睫的威胁。这些关税被视为对边境管制松懈的谴责，可能会扰乱墨西哥最大贸易伙伴的外汇流入，减少对墨西哥出口的需求，特别是在汽车行业。反过来，这可能会促使Banxico加快降息，因为投资放缓、工业产出和通货膨胀加剧了人们对今年货币宽松的预期。

The Mexican peso weakened past 20.6 per USD, approaching the three-year low of 20.85, which has been tested repeatedly since the beginning of the year, amid renewed concerns over U.S. tariffs, compounded by dovish expectations for Banxico. The United States and Colombia narrowly avoided a trade war on Sunday after the White House said the South American country had agreed to accept military aircraft carrying deported migrants, which they had initailly rejected. This has reignited fears about Trump’s trade policy, particularly with the looming threat of tariffs of up to 25% on Mexican goods expected February 1st. These tariffs, framed as a reprimand for lax border control, could disrupt foreign exchange inflows from Mexico’s largest trading partner and reduce demand for Mexican exports, particularly in the auto sector. This, in turn, may prompt Banxico to expedite rate cuts as slowing investment, industrial output, and inflation heightened expectations for monetary easing this year.

彭博社：欧佩克+可能会在审查会议上坚持其目前的供应政策。奥利交易员：预计欧佩克+将在下周的审查会议上坚持其货币供应政策。这将与特朗普总统要求生产以降低价格，从而激励结束乌克兰战争的要求背道而驰。目前的路线图是本季度继续削减供应，然后从4月开始逐步解除供应。

Bloomberg: OPEC+ is likely to stick with its current supply policy at a review meeting.Oli traders: Expect OPEC+ to stick with its currency supply policy at a review meeting next week That would run counter to Pres.Trumps request to produce to lower the price and in turn give an incentive to end the war in Ukraine. The current road map is for continued supply cuts this quarter, before gradually unwinding them from April.

由于预计供应量会增加，大米期货交易价格约为每百斤14.5美元，创下两周来的最低水平。美国农业部1月份的WASDE报告估计，美国供应量增加，国内使用量增加，出口稳定，期末库存减少。美国大米产量估计为2.221亿英担，比之前的估计增加了230万英担，其中德克萨斯州和密苏里州的增幅最大。与此同时，印度大米库存在1月初达到创纪录的6090万吨，是政府760万吨目标的八倍，这可能使该国能够促进出口。2024年下半年印度解除大米出口禁令后，出口势头强劲。印度去年决定禁止出口白米并对蒸谷米出口征收20%的关税后，全球大米价格飙升至15年来的最高水平。

Rice futures traded around $14.5 per hundredweight, hitting their lowest in two weeks, amid expectations of higher supplies. The U.S. Department of Agriculture's January WASDE report estimated an increase in U.S. supplies, higher domestic usage, steady exports, and lower ending stocks. U.S. rice production was estimated at 222.1 million cwt, up 2.3 million from the previous estimate, with the largest increases seen in Texas and Missouri. Meanwhile, India’s rice stocks reached a record 60.9 million tonnes at the start of January, eight times the government’s target of 7.6 million tonnes, potentially enabling the country to boost exports. Exports gained momentum following India’s lifting of rice export ban in the second half of 2024. Global rice prices soared to their highest level in over 15 years following India's decision last year to ban the export of white rice and impose a 20% duty on parboiled rice exports.

达拉斯联邦储备银行的德克萨斯州制造业活动指数在2025年1月上涨7点，至12.2，为2021年10月以来的最高水平。此外，新订单达到2022年4月以来的最高水平，同时产能利用率和出货量也有所改善。商业状况达到多年高点，一般商业活动指数跃升至14.1，公司前景指数为18.7。就业人数略有增长，14%的公司正在招聘。价格压力增加，原材料和成品价格上涨。未来制造业预期强劲，未来生产指数飙升至44.8。

The Dallas Fed's Texas manufacturing activity index rose 7 points to 12.2 in January 2025, the highest since October 2021. Additionally, new orders hit their highest since April 2022, while capacity utilization and shipments also improved. Business conditions reached multiyear highs, with the general business activity index jumping to 14.1 and the company outlook index at 18.7. Employment grew slightly, with 14% of firms hiring. Price pressures increased, with raw materials and finished goods prices rising. Future manufacturing expectations are strong, with the future production index soaring to 44.8.