天然气 (Naturalgas) 加自选

在纽约，道琼斯指数周一上涨314点，涨幅0.76%。英特尔（3.86%）、旅行者公司（3.13%）和思科系统（1.79%）领涨。最大的输家是苹果（-3.25%）、亚马逊（-0.56%）和波音（-0.39%）。

In New York, the Dow Jones Index is picking up 314 points or 0.76 percent on Monday. Gains are led by Intel (3.86%), Travelers Companies (3.13%) and Cisco Systems (1.79%). Biggest losers are Apple (-3.25%), Amazon (-0.56%) and Boeing (-0.39%).

周一，美国股市涨跌互现，标准普尔500指数在持平线上徘徊，道琼斯指数上涨210多点，创下历史新高，纳斯达克指数下跌0.7%，因为交易员在美联储周三的货币政策决定之前仍持谨慎态度。美联储将自2020年以来首次降息，目前大幅降息50个基点的可能性超过60%，而周五为50%。科技板块表现最差，由于对iPhone需求下降的担忧，苹果股价下跌超过3%。此外，上周推动市场复苏的芯片股下跌，因为投资者缩减了头寸，英伟达和博通下跌了近3%。相比之下，能源板块表现优异，雪佛龙股价上涨1.6%。

US stocks were mixed on Monday, with the S&P 500 swinging around the flatline, the Dow Jones rising over 210 points to a new all-time high and the Nasdaq falling 0.7%, as traders remain cautious ahead of the Fed's monetary policy decision on Wednesday. The Fed is set to lower interest rates for the first time since 2020, and the odds for a jumbo 50bps rate reduction currently stand at above 60% compared to 50% on Friday. The tech sector was the worst performer, with Apple shares losing over 3% amid concerns about lower demand for iPhones. Also, chip stocks, which drove the market's recovery last week, declined as investors scaled back their positions, with Nvidia and Broadcom losing almost 3%. In contrast, the energy sector outperformed, with shares of Chevron gaining 1.6%.

随着交易员评估该国的经济和货币前景，俄罗斯10年期自由贸易区的收益率保持在15-16%的水平，约为两年半以来的高点。在9月份的会议上，俄罗斯央行将关键利率上调100个基点至19%，这表明10月份有可能再次加息。政策制定者还将今年的通胀预测上调至6.5%-7%，而目前的通胀率为9.1%。通货膨胀的激增主要是由政府军事开支增加造成的经济压力造成的，这推高了工资，超过了经济满足需求的能力。央行行长Elvira Nabiullina最近警告称，滞胀的风险在于持续的通货膨胀和经济增长放缓。

The yield on the Russian 10-year OFZ remained between the 15-16% level, around 2-1/2-years highs, as traders evaluate the country's economic and monetary outlook. In its September meeting, the Bank of Russia raised its key interest rate by 100 basis points to 19%, signaling the possibility of another hike in October. Policymakers also raised their inflation forecast for the year to 6.5%-7%, while inflation currently sits at 9.1%. The inflation surge is primarily driven by the economic strain from increased government military spending, which has pushed up wages and exceeded the economy’s capacity to meet demand. Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina recently warned of the risk of stagflation, with persistent inflation coupled with slowing economic growth.

2024年9月，纽约帝国州制造业指数意外跃升至11.5，为2022年4月以来的最高水平，而8月份为-4.7，预测为-3.9。该数据显示，纽约州的商业活动近一年来首次增长，新订单攀升（8月份为9.4比-7.9），出货量大幅增长（17.9比0.3）。交货时间（-1.1 vs-3.2）和供应可用性保持稳定（2.1 vs-7.4），库存趋于平稳（0 vs-10.6）。与此同时，劳动力市场状况仍然疲软，就业继续温和收缩（-5.7比-6.7），平均工作周保持稳定（2.9比-17.8）。此外，投入（23.2比23.4）和销售价格增长（7.4比8.5）的速度几乎没有变化。尽管资本支出指数自2020年以来首次降至零以下（-2.1对8.5），但企业对未来几个月情况将有所改善的乐观态度有所增强（30.6对22.9）。

The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index unexpectedly jumped to 11.5 in September 2024, the highest since April 2022, compared to -4.7 in August and forecasts of -3.9. The reading showed business activity in New York state grew for the first time in nearly a year, as new orders climbed (9.4 vs -7.9 in August) and shipments grew significantly (17.9 vs 0.3). Delivery times (-1.1 vs -3.2) and supply availability were steady (2.1 vs -7.4), and inventories leveled off (0 vs -10.6). Meanwhile, labor market conditions remained soft, with employment continuing to contract modestly (-5.7 vs -6.7) and the average workweek holding steady (2.9 vs -17.8). Also, the pace of input (23.2 vs 23.4) and selling price increases (7.4 vs 8.5) were little changed. Firms grew more optimistic that conditions would improve in the months ahead (30.6 vs 22.9), though the capital spending index dipped below zero for the first time since 2020 (-2.1 vs 8.5).