羊毛 (Wool) 加自选

欧元/美元、美元/日元和澳元/美元预测——美元继续小幅下跌。由于市场继续关注本周的央行会议，美元在周一交易时段的早些时候略有下跌。在这一点上，趋势仍然存在，但修正是残酷的。

EUR/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/USD Forecast – US Dollar Continues to Slip a Bit.The US dollar slipped a bit in the early hours of the Monday trading session, as the markets continue to look towards the central bank meetings this week. At this point, the trend remains, but the correction has been brutal.

新西兰基准标准普尔/NZX 50指数周一收于13000点，下跌0.2%，延续了前一交易日的跌幅，受金融和运输股表现疲软的拖累。新西兰最大贸易伙伴中国令人失望的采购经理人指数数据也抑制了市场情绪。中国制造业自去年9月以来首次收缩，创下五个月来最大跌幅，而服务业增长从九个月高点大幅放缓。投资者也对特朗普关税政策的潜在影响保持谨慎，并关注美联储本周的决定。在金融类股中，西太平洋银行（-1.8%）和澳新银行集团控股公司（-1.1%）领跌。在运输方面，奥克兰国际机场、Mainfreight Ltd和陶朗加港分别下跌了2.2%、1.2%和0.8%。

New Zealand's benchmark S&P/NZX 50 index closed 0.2% lower at 13,000 on Monday, extending losses from the previous session, weighed down by weak performance in finance and transportation stocks. Sentiment was also dampened by disappointing PMI data from China, New Zealand’s largest trading partner. Chinese manufacturing contracted for the first time since September last year, marking the steepest decline in five months, while services growth sharply slowed from a nine-month high. Investors also remain cautious about the potential impact of Trump’s tariff policies, with attention also on the Federal Reserve’s decision this week. Among finance stocks, Westpac Banking Corporation (-1.8%) and ANZ Group Holdings (-1.1%) led losses. In transportation, Auckland International Airport, Mainfreight Ltd, and Port of Tauranga shed 2.2%, 1.2%, and 0.8%, respectively.

新西兰将放宽签证规定，允许度假者在访问期间远程工作。新签证规定：新西兰将允许度假者在访问期间远程工作，以促进旅游业和经济发展。开始日期：根据访客签证，更改将于1月27日生效。

New Zealand will loosen visa rules to allow holiday makers to work remotely while visiting.New Visa Rules: New Zealand will allow holidaymakers to work remotely while visiting to boost tourism and the economy. Start Date: Changes take effect from January 27 under the visitor visa.

周一，新西兰元从五周高点回落至0.568美元左右，因交易员对新西兰最大贸易伙伴中国疲软的PMI数据做出反应。中国制造业自去年9月以来首次收缩，创下五个月来最大跌幅，而服务业增长从九个月高点大幅放缓。额外的压力来自美元的上涨，因为投资者在本周晚些时候关注特朗普的关税政策和美联储的利率决定，预计美联储将保持利率稳定。在国内，新西兰2024年第四季度通胀数据疲软，增加了进一步降息的预期。掉期市场目前预计，下个月降息50个基点的可能性为90%，新西兰储备银行预计将在2025年降息100个基点。

The New Zealand dollar weakened to around $0.568 on Monday, retreating from a five-week high as traders reacted to weak PMI data from China, New Zealand’s largest trading partner. Chinese manufacturing contracted for the first time since September last year, marking the steepest decline in five months, while services growth sharply slowed from a nine-month high. Additional pressure came from a rise in the US dollar, as investors monitored Trump’s tariff policies and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision later in the week, where the US central bank is expected to hold rates steady. Domestically, softer Q4 2024 inflation data in New Zealand increased expectations of further rate cuts. Swap markets now price in a 90% chance of a 50 bps cut next month, with the RBNZ expected to lower rates by 100 bps in 2025.