小麦 (Wheat) 加自选

墨西哥比索兑美元汇率跌破20.6，接近20.85的三年低点，自年初以来，由于对美国关税的担忧再次出现，加上对Banxico的鸽派预期，这一低点已多次受到考验。周日，美国和哥伦比亚勉强避免了贸易战，此前白宫表示，这个南美国家已同意接受载有被驱逐移民的军用飞机，但他们最初拒绝了这一点。这再次引发了人们对特朗普贸易政策的担忧，尤其是预计2月1日对墨西哥商品征收高达25%关税的迫在眉睫的威胁。这些关税被视为对边境管制松懈的谴责，可能会扰乱墨西哥最大贸易伙伴的外汇流入，减少对墨西哥出口的需求，特别是在汽车行业。反过来，这可能会促使Banxico加快降息，因为投资放缓、工业产出和通货膨胀加剧了人们对今年货币宽松的预期。

The Mexican peso weakened past 20.6 per USD, approaching the three-year low of 20.85, which has been tested repeatedly since the beginning of the year, amid renewed concerns over U.S. tariffs, compounded by dovish expectations for Banxico. The United States and Colombia narrowly avoided a trade war on Sunday after the White House said the South American country had agreed to accept military aircraft carrying deported migrants, which they had initailly rejected. This has reignited fears about Trump’s trade policy, particularly with the looming threat of tariffs of up to 25% on Mexican goods expected February 1st. These tariffs, framed as a reprimand for lax border control, could disrupt foreign exchange inflows from Mexico’s largest trading partner and reduce demand for Mexican exports, particularly in the auto sector. This, in turn, may prompt Banxico to expedite rate cuts as slowing investment, industrial output, and inflation heightened expectations for monetary easing this year.

达拉斯联邦储备银行的德克萨斯州制造业活动指数在2025年1月上涨7点，至12.2，为2021年10月以来的最高水平。此外，新订单达到2022年4月以来的最高水平，同时产能利用率和出货量也有所改善。商业状况达到多年高点，一般商业活动指数跃升至14.1，公司前景指数为18.7。就业人数略有增长，14%的公司正在招聘。价格压力增加，原材料和成品价格上涨。未来制造业预期强劲，未来生产指数飙升至44.8。

The Dallas Fed's Texas manufacturing activity index rose 7 points to 12.2 in January 2025, the highest since October 2021. Additionally, new orders hit their highest since April 2022, while capacity utilization and shipments also improved. Business conditions reached multiyear highs, with the general business activity index jumping to 14.1 and the company outlook index at 18.7. Employment grew slightly, with 14% of firms hiring. Price pressures increased, with raw materials and finished goods prices rising. Future manufacturing expectations are strong, with the future production index soaring to 44.8.

FOMC预览：美联储是否会加大特朗普的压力？。由于本月实质性政策变化的可能性微乎其微，没有发布经济预测摘要（SEP），除了“按市值计价”官员对劳动力市场的评估外，联邦公开市场委员会货币政策声明几乎没有必要的更新，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的新闻发布会可能是交易员的主要波动催化剂。

FOMC Preview: Fed Hold to Increase Pressure from Trump?.With only a vanishingly small probability of a substantive policy change this month, no Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) set for release, and little in the way of necessary updates to the FOMC's Monetary Policy Statement outside of “marking to market” officials' assessment of the labor market, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference is likely to be the main volatility catalyst for traders.

2024年12月，美国新独栋房屋的销售额较上月增长3.6%，经季节性调整后的年化率为69.8万套，为9月以来的最高水平，远高于市场预期的67万套。尽管在此期间基准抵押贷款利率飙升，但这一增长与市场对高通胀将迫使美联储在此期间保持鹰派立场的担忧相一致。西部（20.3%至15.4万）和东北部（41.7%至3.4万）的销售额增长，而南部（-2.1%至42.3万）和中西部（-3.3%至8.7万）的销量略有下降。房屋的中位数价格为42.7万美元，而平均售价为513600美元。反过来，待售房屋的库存为49.4万套，按目前的销售速度计算，相当于8.5个月。

Sales of new single-family homes in the United States rose by 3.6% from the previous month to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 698,000 homes in December of 2024, the most since September, and firmly above market expectations of 670,000. The rise was despite the surge in benchmark mortgage rates in the period, which were aligned with market concerns that high inflation would force the Fed to remain hawkish for the meantime. Sales growth was carried by the West (20.3% to 154,000) and the Northeast (41.7% to 34,000), while sales were slightly lower in the South (-2.1% to 423,000) and the Midwest (-3.3% to 87,000). The median price for homes was $427,000, while the average sales price was $513,600. In turn, the inventory of homes for sale was 494,000, equivalent to 8.5 months at the current sales rate.