牛奶 (Milk) 加自选

欧元/美元、美元/日元和澳元/美元预测——美元继续小幅下跌。由于市场继续关注本周的央行会议，美元在周一交易时段的早些时候略有下跌。在这一点上，趋势仍然存在，但修正是残酷的。

EUR/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/USD Forecast – US Dollar Continues to Slip a Bit.The US dollar slipped a bit in the early hours of the Monday trading session, as the markets continue to look towards the central bank meetings this week. At this point, the trend remains, but the correction has been brutal.

2024年12月，法国大陆登记失业人数增加了21.8万人，达到295.7万人。这标志着求职者人数连续第四次上升，达到2022年3月以来的最高水平。这一增长进一步挑战了法国劳动力市场对欧洲央行加息保持弹性的观点，这与央行目前的温和立场相一致。这一增长在核心老年人口中最为明显（+18200万至172.9万），其次是50岁以上人口（+21000至803.7万）和25岁以下人口（+15000至423.7万）。

The number of people registered as unemployed in Mainland France increased by 21.8 thousand to 2.957 million in December 2024. This marked the fourth consecutive rise in jobseekers, reaching the highest level since March 2022. The increase further challenged the view that the French labor market had remained resilient to the ECB's higher interest rates, aligning with the current dovish stance of the central bank. The rise was most pronounced among the core-aged population (+18.2 thousand to 1.729 million), followed by those aged above 50 years (+2.1 thousand to 803.7 million), and those aged under 25 years (+1.5 thousand to 423.7 million).

德国Ifo升至85.1，略有改善，但仍持悲观态度。德国Ifo商业景气指数从1月份的84.7升至85.1。现状指数也从85.1升至86.1。

German Ifo rises to 85.1, slightly improvement but still pessimistic.German Ifo Business Climate ticked up from 84.7 to 85.1 in January. Current Situation Index also rose form 85.1 to 86.1.

在欧洲央行会议之前，德国10年期国债收益率跌至2.5%以下，市场预计周四将降息25个基点。投资者将关注未来降息的迹象，因为预计欧洲央行在2024年四次降息后将再次降低存款利率。人们的注意力也将转向美联储，美联储可能会在周三保持利率稳定。最近的数据显示，德国Ifo商业景气指数从12月的84.7升至1月的85.1，高于预期。目前的情况有所改善，而商业预期略有下降。Ifo主席指出，服务业正在复苏，但制造业仍然疲软，反映出经济持续停滞。与此同时，交易员们正在评估特朗普总统的政策，包括他对关税的软化立场和立即降息的呼吁。

Germany’s 10-year Bund yield fell below 2.5%, ahead of the ECB meeting, with markets anticipating a 25 bps rate cut on Thursday. Investors will watch for hints about future reductions, as the ECB is expected to lower the deposit rate again after four cuts in 2024. Attention will also turn to the US Federal Reserve, which is likely to hold rates steady on Wednesday. Recent data showed Germany’s Ifo Business Climate index rose to 85.1 in January, up from December’s 84.7, and above forecasts. The current conditions gauge improved, while business expectations dipped slightly. The Ifo President noted the services sector is recovering, but manufacturing remains weak, reflecting ongoing economic stagnation. Meanwhile, traders are assessing President Trump’s policies, including his softened stance on tariffs and calls for immediate rate cuts.