木 (Lumber) 加自选

周一，标准普尔/多伦多证交所综合指数下跌0.8%，至25260以下，结束了连续九个交易日的上涨，因为大宗商品为主的指数受到油价和金价下跌以及科技股普遍下跌的拖累。包括加拿大天然气公司、森科尔公司、帝国石油公司和Cenovus在内的能源生产商领跌，跌幅在1.1%至2.1%之间，反映出油价持续疲软。同样，由于金价下跌，Agnico Eagle、Barrick Gold、Wheaton Precious和Franco Nevada等主要矿业股下跌了1%至1.7%。追踪更广泛科技行业的Shopify股价下跌超过2%，原因是人们对美国人工智能主导地位的担忧加剧，有人声称中国开发的DeepSeek模式比美国同行更高效，而投资者正在等待苹果、微软、Meta和特斯拉的关键季度业绩，以评估人工智能驱动市场的未来。

The S&P/TSX Composite Index dropped 0.8% to below 25,260 on Monday, snapping a nine-session winning streak as the commodity-heavy index was weighed down by falling oil and gold prices, alongside a broad decline in tech stocks. Energy producers, including Canadian Natural, Suncor, Imperial Oil, and Cenovus, led the downturn with losses ranging from 1.1% to 2.1%, reflecting continued weakness in oil prices. Likewise, major mining stocks like Agnico Eagle, Barrick Gold, Wheaton Precious, and Franco-Nevada saw declines between 1% and 1.7% amid lower bullion prices. Shopify, tracking the broader tech sector, fell over 2% as concerns about the US's AI dominance grew amid claims that the Chinese-developed DeepSeek model is more efficient than US counterparts, while investors awaited key quarterly results from Apple, Microsoft, Meta, and Tesla to assess the future of the AI-driven market.

周一，Ibovespa指数上涨1%，收于123500点以上，达到六周来的最高点，这得益于金融和零售业的上涨，以及对美联储即将结束紧缩周期的预期，这促使风险偏好和流入新兴市场的资金激增。包括淡水河谷和巴西国家石油公司在内的大宗商品相关股票受益于中国需求的强劲和价格的上涨，而金融和消费行业则受益于借贷条件的改善和积极的消费前景。随着税收改革取得进展，围绕财政纪律的乐观情绪再次增强，投资者信心进一步增强，这表明卢拉总统领导下的政治稳定。巴西银行、桑坦德银行、伊塔乌萨银行和Bradesco领涨，涨幅在1%至1.5%之间。

The Ibovespa climbed 1% to above the 123,500 level on Monday, reaching a six-week high fueled by gains in the financial and retail sectors, lifted by expectations that the US Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its tightening cycle, prompting a surge in risk appetite and inflows into emerging markets. Commodity-linked stocks, including Vale and Petrobras, are benefiting from stronger Chinese demand and rising prices, while the financial and consumer sectors are seeing gains from improved borrowing conditions and a positive consumption outlook. Investor confidence is further strengthened by renewed optimism surrounding fiscal discipline amid progress on tax reform, signaling political stability under President Lula. Banco do Brasil, Santander, Itaúsa, and Bradesco led the rise, with gains ranging from 1% to 1.5%.

初步估计显示，2024年12月，加拿大批发销售环比增长0.1%，从11月0.2%的下降中反弹。增长的部分原因是机动车和机动车零部件和配件子行业的销售额增加。

Wholesale sales in Canada increased by 0.1% month-over-month in December 2024, rebounding from a 0.2% decline in November, preliminary estimates showed. The rise was partly driven by higher sales in the motor vehicle and motor vehicle parts and accessories subsector.

加拿大丰业银行在风险规避方面变化不大。加拿大丰业银行首席外汇策略师Shaun Osborne指出，在亚洲早盘交易因市场普遍避险基调而走弱后，加元（CAD）正在小幅回升。 

CAD little changed on risk aversion – Scotiabank.The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is recovering a little ground after weakening in early Asian trade on the broad risk-off tone to markets, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne note, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.