美国可可 (Cocoa) 加自选

2024年11月，智利生产者价格指数较上年同期上涨11.7%，较10月的10.6%有所加速，创下7月以来最快的生产者通胀速度。这一增长完全是由于在水处理成本急剧上升的情况下，处理和供应公用事业的公司的成本激增了23.5%（23.5%）。反过来，尽管铜矿商的成本每月都在下降，但采矿活动的成本每年飙升14.4%。最后，制造商的通货膨胀率为4.7%。与上月相比，生产者价格没有变化。

Producer prices in Chile rose by 11.7% from the previous year in November of 2024, accelerating from the 10.6% increase in October to mark the fastest pace of producer inflation since July. The increase was solely due to a 23.5% surge in costs for companies that treat and supply utilities (23.5%), amid a sharp rise in water treatment costs. In turn, costs for mining activities soared by 14.4% annually, despite a monthly drop in costs for copper miners. Lastly, inflation for manufacturers was at a softer 4.7%. From the previous month, producer prices were unchanged.

周一，Ibovespa指数下跌1.1%，收于120767点，受到对公共财政持续担忧和Selic利率预测上升的压力。金融机构重新评估了最近批准的支出削减的财政影响，而央行的焦点报告显示，2025年的Selic利率预测从14%上升到14.75%，IPCA通胀估计连续第十周攀升至4.84%，高于4.50%的目标上限。主要银行领跌，桑坦德银行、Itaúsa和Bradesco下跌1.5%至3%。其他值得注意的下跌股包括WEG、Rede D'Or和CPFL Energia，跌幅在1.8%至4%之间。机构关系部长帕迪利亚重申，政府致力于将财政框架作为与社会和经济行为体的契约，确保采取一切必要措施实现财政目标。

The Ibovespa declined 1.1% to close at 120,767 on Monday, pressured by ongoing concerns over public finances and rising Selic rate projections. Financial agents reassessed the fiscal impact of recently approved spending cuts, while the central bank’s Focus Report showed the Selic rate forecast for 2025 increasing to 14.75% from 14% and the IPCA inflation estimate climbing for the tenth consecutive week to 4.84%, above the 4.50% target ceiling. Major lenders led losses, with Banco Santander, Itaúsa, and Bradesco down between 1.5% and 3%. Other notable decliners included WEG, Rede D’Or, and CPFL Energia, posting losses between 1.8% and 4%. Minister of Institutional Relations Padilha reiterated the government’s commitment to the fiscal framework as a contract with society and economic actors, assuring that all necessary measures would be taken to meet fiscal goals.

2024年11月，哥伦比亚的工业信心指数降至-2.8，延续了10月份0.4的下滑趋势，这是过去十个月中第九个出现负增长的月份。这一下降主要是由于下一季度的生产预期大幅下降（2.4比10月的14.4）和库存水平大幅下降（-2.4比0）。然而，新订单有所改善（-13.4比-15.7）。相比之下，一年前的信心指数为7.1。

The industrial confidence indicator for Colombia dropped to -2.8 in November 2024, extending October's downturn of 0.4, marking the ninth negative month in the last ten months. This decline was mainly driven by a sharp decrease in production expectations for the next quarter (2.4 compared to 14.4 in October) and stock levels (-2.4 compared to 0). However, there was improvement in new orders (-13.4 compared to -15.7). In comparison, the confidence indicator stood lower at 7.1 a year earlier.

由于对巴西财政政策和通胀预期上升的担忧继续削弱投资者信心，巴西雷亚尔兑美元汇率跌破6.17，接近12月18日创下的6.29的历史低点。尽管国会最近通过了一项削减开支的计划，但围绕这些措施有效性的不确定性依然存在。市场越来越怀疑，财政储蓄预测从520亿雷亚尔降至440亿雷亚尔。与此同时，正如《焦点公报》所指出的那样，投资者的通胀预期有所上升，2024年的通胀预测从4.89%上升到4.91%，远高于央行3%的目标。再加上央行最近承认可能违反通胀目标的公开信，进一步加剧了人们对其锚定通胀能力的担忧。与此同时，美元在全球范围内走强，以回应美联储对降息放缓的预测。

The Brazilian real weakened beyond 6.17 per USD, approaching the record low of 6.29 reached on December 18th, as concerns over Brazil’s fiscal policy and rising inflation expectations continue to erode investor confidence. Despite the recent passage of a spending cuts package in Congress, uncertainties surrounding the effectiveness of the measures persist. The market has grown increasingly skeptical, with fiscal savings projections dropping from 52 billion to 44 billion reais. Meanwhile, investors' inflation expectations, as indicated by the Focus Bulletin, have increased, with forecasts for 2024 inflation rising from 4.89% to 4.91%, well above the Central Bank’s target of 3%. This, coupled with the Central Bank’s recent open letter acknowledging a likely inflation target breach, has further fueled concerns about its ability to anchor inflation. Simultaneously, the US dollar strengthened globally in response to the Federal Reserve's projection of slower interest rate cuts.