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英国 United Kingdom
英国10年期国债收益率升至4.65%,因投资者对特朗普总统新宣布的一些关税可能进行谈判持谨慎乐观态度。美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特表示,包括日本在内的约70个国家已与白宫接洽,开始关税谈判。此外,英国可能被证明相对有弹性——与美国更广泛的措施相比,其10%的关税是适度的,如果美国公司转移供应商以避免更高的成本,一些英国公司可能会受益。英国政府估计,对GDP的直接影响将不到0.1%。与此同时,市场越来越期望英格兰银行降息以应对全球经济增长放缓。在关税消息传出后,交易员们对5月份的降息进行了全面定价,从宣布前的50%上调,并预计到2025年底将降息三次。
UK 10-year gilt yields rose to 4.65% as investors grew cautiously optimistic that some of President Trump’s newly announced tariffs could be negotiated. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said about 70 countries, including Japan, have approached the White House to begin tariff talks. Also, the UK may prove relatively resilient—its 10% tariff is modest compared to broader US measures, and some UK firms could benefit if US companies shift suppliers to avoid higher costs. The UK government estimates the direct impact on GDP will be less than 0.1%. Meanwhile, markets increasingly expect the Bank of England to cut interest rates in response to slowing global growth. Following the tariff news, traders fully price in a rate cut in May—up from 50% before the announcement—and expect three cuts by the end of 2025.