2024年第二季度，新西兰经济较去年同期收缩0.5%，符合预期，此前一季度增长了0.5%。第一产业（-1.5%，而第一季度为+0.1%）和商品生产行业（-3.3%，而第二季度为-3.1%）的产出有所下降。相比之下，服务业（+0.4%对+1.3%）略有扩张。继上一季度下降0.1%之后，季度GDP下降了0.4%。

New Zealand's economy contracted by 0.5% from a year earlier in the second quarter of 2024, in line with expectations, after expanding by 0.5% in the previous period. decreased output was observed in primary industries (-1.5% compared to +0.1% in Q1) and goods-producing industries (-3.3% compared to -3.1%). In contrast, the service industries (+0.4% compared to +1.3%) slightly expanded. Quarterly GDP shrank by 0.4%, following a 0.1% decline in the previous quarter.

周四上午的交易中，新西兰股市上涨18点，涨幅0.2%，至12605点，结束了前三个交易日的下跌，同时试图从前一天美联储降息50个基点后的两周最低水平回升。官方数据显示，由于零售活动、农业和批发贸易的减少，新西兰第二季度的国内生产总值在第一季度下调0.1%后，第二季度环比收缩0.2%，好于市场预测的0.4%的跌幅，交易员评估了新的经济数据。然而，交易员预计，在上个月将1年期贷款最优惠利率保持在3.35%之后，中国将于周五确定9月份的基准贷款利率。工业、房地产、公用事业和消费必需品主要上涨，受奥克兰国际机场（0.7%）、陶朗加港（0.7%），Mainfreight（0.5%）、Gentrack Group（0.5%）和Mercury NZ（1.2%）上涨的支撑，

Shares in New Zealand rose 18 points or 0.2% to 12,605 on Thursday morning deals, halting losses from the prior three sessions while trying to emerge from its lowest in two weeks notched the day before, after the Fed rate cuts by 50 bps. Traders assessed the fresh economic data after the official data showed New Zealand's GDP contracted by 0.2% qoq in Q2, after a downwardly revised  0.1% in Q1, better than market estimates of a 0.4% fall, due to lower retail activity, agriculture, and wholesale trade. However, traders anticipated China's September fixing of benchmark lending rates on Friday, after keeping its 1-year loan prime rates at 3.35% in the previous month. Industrials, real estate, utilities, and consumer staples were mainly higher, supported by gains from Auckland International Airport (0.7%), Port of Tauranga (0.7%), Mainfreight (0.5%), Gentrack Group (0.5%), and Mercury NZ (1.2%),

在截至2024年6月的三个月里，新西兰经济环比萎缩0.2%，此前一段时间下调了0.1%的扩张，而市场预计将收缩0.4%。受零售贸易和住宿业（-1.3%对第一季度的0.0%）、农业、林业和渔业（-1.4%对0.0%）以及批发贸易（-1.3%比-1.5%）下降的推动，它连续两个季度停止增长。尽管国内生产总值总体下降，但16个行业中有7个行业有所增长。增幅最大的是制造业（+1.9%，而-1.4%）。按年度计算，国内生产总值收缩了0.5%，与上一季度0.5%的增长率相比有所波动。

New Zealand's economy shrank by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in the three months to June of 2024, following a downwardly revised 0.1% expansion in the previous period, while the market expected a 0.4% contraction. It snapped two straight quarters of growth, driven by decreases in Retail trade and accommodations (-1.3% compared to 0.0% in Q1), Agriculture, forestry, and fishing (-1.4% compared to 0.0%), and Wholesale trade (-1.3% compared to -1.5%). Despite the overall fall in GDP, 7 out of the 16 industries increased. The largest rise was in manufacturing (+1.9% compared to -1.4%). On an annual basis, GDP contracted by 0.5%, swinging from a 0.5% growth in the previous quarter.

美联储出人意料地大幅降息后，美元普遍疲软，新西兰元兑美元汇率突破0.62美元。鉴于通胀和风险平衡的进展，美联储将基准利率下调50个基点至4.75%-5%。在国内，市场已经完全消化了10月份降息25个基点的预期，随着通胀持续缓解，数据显示降息50个基点的可能性高达25%。新西兰第二季度的年通货膨胀率降至3.3%，为2021年6月季度以来的最低水平。投资者期待着周四公布的该国第二季度GDP数据，分析师预测6月季度经济将萎缩0.4%，这加强了进一步放松货币政策的理由。

The New Zealand dollar strengthened past $0.62 on general USD weakness after the Fed unexpectedly delivered a jumbo rate cut. The Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate by 50bps to 4.75%-5% in light of the progress on inflation and the balance of risks. Domestically, markets have fully priced in a 25-bps rate cut in October, with a 25% probability of an outsized 50-bps reduction as data as inflation continues to ease. The annual inflation rate in New Zealand slowed to 3.3% in Q2, the lowest reading since the June quarter of 2021. Investors looked forward to the country’s second-quarter GDP data on Thursday, with analysts forecasting the economy to shrink by 0.4% in the June quarter, reinforcing the case for further monetary policy easing.