周二，新西兰元继续从五周高点回落至0.565美元左右，因为美元在唐纳德·特朗普总统发出新的关税威胁后反弹。周一，特朗普宣布计划对进口芯片、药品、钢铁、铝和铜征收关税，以促进国内生产。随着2月1日第一轮关税的最后期限临近，包括新西兰最大贸易伙伴中国在内的国家，贸易商也仍然感到紧张。此外，由于对美国在人工智能领域主导地位的担忧，全球科技股的持续抛售进一步损害了风险情绪。再加上对新西兰储备银行的鸽派预期，对新西兰货币造成了沉重压力。掉期市场目前预计，2月份再次降息50个基点的可能性接近90%，预计到2025年，新西兰储备银行将降息100个基点。
The New Zealand dollar extended its decline to around $0.565 on Tuesday, continuing its pullback from a five-week high as the US dollar rebounded following President Donald Trump’s fresh tariff threats. On Monday, Trump announced plans to impose tariffs on imported chips, pharmaceuticals, steel, aluminum, and copper to boost domestic production. Traders also remain on edge as the February 1 deadline for the initial round of tariffs approaches, targeting countries including China, New Zealand’s largest trading partner. Additionally, the ongoing global sell-off in tech stocks has further hurt risk sentiment, driven by concerns over US dominance in AI. This, coupled with dovish expectations for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, has weighed heavily on the currency. Swap markets are now pricing in nearly a 90% chance of another 50 bps rate cut in February, with the RBNZ expected to lower rates by a total of 100 bps by 2025.
