在日本央行和美联储货币政策前景日益分歧的情况下，日元升值超过141日元兑1美元的水平，为一年多来的最高水平。美联储在9月份的会议上将关键利率下调了50个基点，高于近一半市场的预期，并表示在失业率上升和通胀缓解的预期下，明年将继续降息。相反，预计日本央行本周将保持其关键利率不变，然后在12月再次加息，而10月的加息仍遥遥无期。利率预期的差异也引发了人们对套利交易持续平仓的担忧，迫使投资者购买日元以平仓。在经济方面，数据显示，日本8月份出口增长低于预期，而进口增长为五个月来最低。

The Japanese yen appreciated past the 141 per USD level, its highest in over one year, amid the increasingly divergent outlook in monetary policy between the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve. The US Fed lowered its key interest rate by 50bps in its September meeting, higher than what nearly half of the market expected, and signaled a batch of remaining rate cuts into next year amid expectations of higher unemployment and easing inflation. Contrarily, the BoJ is expected to hold its key interest rate unchanged this week before delivering another rate hike in December, while a move in October remains a close call. The divergence in rate expectations also triggered fears of a continuation of the unwinding of carry trades, forcing investors to purchase yen to close their positions. On the economic front, data showed that Japan’s exports increased less than expected in August, while imports rose the least in five months.

周三，日元兑美元汇率升至141.6左右，弥补了美国强劲零售销售数据引发的前一交易日的一些损失，因为投资者为本周日本和美国备受期待的货币政策决定做好了准备。预计日本央行周五将保持利率不变，但可能会发出进一步加息的信号。市场押注日本央行将在12月再次加息，而10月的加息仍遥遥无期。另一方面，人们普遍预计美联储将于周三公布四年来的首次降息，市场预计有三分之二的机会大幅降息50个基点。在经济方面，数据显示，日本8月份出口增长低于预期，而进口增长为五个月来最低。

The Japanese yen rose to around 141.6 per dollar on Wednesday, recouping some losses from the previous session triggered by strong US retail sales data, as investors geared up for highly-anticipated monetary policy decisions from Japan and the US this week. The Bank of Japan is expected to keep rates unchanged on Friday but will likely signal further rate hikes. Markets are betting that the BOJ will raise interest rates again in December, while a move in October remains a close call. On the other hand, the US Federal Reserve is widely expected to deliver its first rate cut in four years on Wednesday, with markets pricing in a two-thirds chance of an outsized 50 basis point reduction. On the economic front, data showed that Japan’s exports increased less than expected in August, while imports rose the least in five months.

日经225指数周三上涨0.8%，至36500点左右，而更广泛的东证指数上涨0.4%，至2566点，结束了为期两天的下跌，因为投资者正在为美联储的预期降息做准备。市场目前认为，美联储选择更大幅度降息50个基点的可能性超过60%。在国内，数据显示，日本8月份出口增长低于预期，而进口增长为五个月来最低。Disco Corp（1.4%）、Mercari（3.7%）、Advantest（1.3%）、丰田汽车（2.6%）和迅销（2%）等指数权重股表现强劲。与此同时，三菱重工（-1.4%）、索尼集团（-0.5%）和Keyence（-0.9%）等跌幅较大。

The Nikkei 225 Index jumped 0.8% to around 36,500 while the broader Topix Index gained 0.4% to 2,566 on Wednesday, snapping a two-day decline as investors prepared for an expected rate cut from the US Federal Reserve. Markets are currently assigning an over 60% chance that the Fed will opt for a bigger 50 basis point reduction. Domestically, data showed that Japan’s exports increased less than expected in August, while imports rose the least in five months. Strong performances were seen from index heavyweights like Disco Corp (1.4%), Mercari (3.7%), Advantest (1.3%), Toyota Motor (2.6%) and Fast Retailing (2%). Meanwhile, notable decliners include Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (-1.4%), Sony Group (-0.5%) and Keyence (-0.9%).

8月份对日本的进口同比增长2.3%，达到91371.8亿日元，未达到市场普遍预期的13.4%的增长，这是自3月以来最疲软的增长。

Imports to Japan increased by 2.3% yoy to JPY 9,137.18 billion in August, missing market consensus of a 13.4% surge and marking the weakest growth since March.