富时MIB指数微涨约0.3%，周一接近33700点，投资者正在为关键的一周货币政策决策做准备。所有人的目光都集中在美联储身上，人们普遍预计美联储将自2020年以来首次降息，大幅降息50个基点的可能性现在超过50%。预计英格兰银行、日本银行和挪威央行将发布更多重要公告。在企业板块，银行和保险公司涨幅最大，忠利银行上涨2%，联合信贷银行上涨1.8%，联合波兰银行上涨1.6%。Saipem也表现出色，在卡塔尔能源液化天然气公司宣布授予海上EPC合同后上涨了3%以上。相比之下，意法半导体、Interpump集团和依维柯集团则落后，各自下降了约1%。

The FTSE MIB edged up by approximately 0.3%, nearing the 33,700 level on Monday, as investors braced for a pivotal week of monetary policy decisions. All eyes are on the Federal Reserve, which is widely expected to reduce interest rates for the first time since 2020, with the probability of a significant 50 basis point cut now exceeding 50%. Additional key announcements are anticipated from the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, and the Norges Bank. In the corporate sector, banks and insurers were among the top gainers, with Generali climbing 2%, Unicredit rising 1.8%, and Unipol advancing 1.6%. Saipem also outperformed, gaining over 3% following the announcement of an offshore EPC contract awarded by QatarEnergy LNG. In contrast, STMicroelectronics, Interpump Group, and Iveco Group lagged behind, each declining by about 1%.

2024年7月，意大利公布了67.43亿欧元的贸易顺差，为三年来最大，比去年同期的61.08亿欧元顺差有所扩大，远远高于市场普遍预期的45亿欧元。出口额增长6.8%，达到571.76亿欧元，其中药品（21.4%）、食品和饮料（15.7%）以及化学品（15.3%）的销售额显著增长。反过来，进口额增长6.3%，达到504.33亿欧元，服装（-7.2%）和天然气（-6.5%）的采购额下降略微抵消了药品（24.6%）、食品和饮料（16.2%）以及化学品（15.9%）的增长。

Italy posted a trade surplus of EUR 6.743 billion in July of 2024, the largest in three years, widening from the EUR 6.108 billion surplus from the corresponding period of the previous year, and firmly above the market consensus of EUR 4.5 billion. Exports increased by 6.8% to EUR 57.176 billion, with notable increases in sales of pharmaceutical articles (21.4%), food products and beverages (15.7%), and chemicals (15.3%). In turn, imports rose by 6.3% to EUR 50.433 billion, as declines in purchasing turnover of clothing (-7.2%) and natural gas (-6.5%) slightly offset increases in pharmaceutical articles (24.6%), food products and beverages (16.2%), and chemicals (15.9%).

2024年8月，意大利的年通货膨胀率从上个月的1.3%降至1.1%，与初步估计相符。运输成本下降（-0.2%对7月份的1.5%），而通信行业的通货紧缩有所加剧（-6.8%对-5.2%）。另一方面，健康（1.6%对1.5%）、餐馆和酒店（4.4%对4.3%）以及杂项商品和服务（2.4%对2.3%）的价格略有上涨。此外，住房和公用事业的通货紧缩有所缓解（-1.4%对-2.2%）。与此同时，食品和非酒精饮料（0.9%）、非酒精饮料和烟草（2.4%）、娱乐和文化（2%）以及教育（1.8%）的通货膨胀率保持不变。与上月相比，意大利消费者价格小幅上涨0.2%，与初步结果一致。

The annual inflation rate in Italy slowed to 1.1% in August of 2024 from 1.3% in the previous month, matching preliminary estimates. Transportation costs saw a decline (-0.2% vs 1.5% in July), while deflation picked up for communication (-6.8% vs -5.2%). On the other hand, prices accelerated slightly for health (1.6% vs 1.5%), restaurants & hotels (4.4% vs 4.3%), and miscellaneous goods & services (2.4% vs 2.3%). Additionally, deflation eased for housing & utilities (-1.4% vs -2.2%). Meanwhile, the inflation rate remained unchanged for food & non-alcoholic beverages (0.9%), non-alcoholic beverages & tobacco (2.4%), recreation & culture (2%), and education (1.8%). From the previous month, Italian consumer prices edged up by 0.2%, aligning with preliminary results as well.

富时MIB周五表现平平，交易价格低于33500点，落后于欧洲同行，因为交易员继续关注货币政策的前景。美联储下周大幅降息50个基点的可能性已上升至近50%。在欧洲，欧洲央行如预期般降低了利率，但对未来的行动几乎没有提供任何指导，保持了一种依赖数据的、逐个会议的战略。在企业方面，法国集团Worldline在巴黎证券交易所倒闭后，Nexi股价大幅下跌近4%。银行也面临压力，Finecobank下跌1.7%，Unicredit下跌0.6%。从好的方面来看，Diasorin、Amplifon和意大利电信的表现优于其他公司，各自上涨了1%以上。本周，富时MIB指数将以0.5%的涨幅收盘。

The FTSE MIB was muted on Friday, trading below the 33,500 mark and lagging behind its European counterparts, as traders continued to focus on the outlook for monetary policy. The probability of a substantial 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week has risen to nearly 50%. In Europe, the European Central Bank lowered interest rates as anticipated but provided little guidance on future actions, maintaining a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting strategy. On the corporate front, Nexi saw a significant decline of nearly 4%, following the collapse of the French group Worldline on the Paris stock exchange. Banks were also under pressure, with Finecobank down 1.7% and Unicredit slipping 0.6%. On the upside, Diasorin, Amplifon, and Telecom Italia outperformed, each gaining over 1%. For the week, the FTSE MIB is set to close with a 0.5% gain.