2024年9月，意大利零售额较上月飙升1.2%，从8月份修正后的0.3%的跌幅大幅反弹，标志着自2023年1月以来零售额的最大增幅。这些数据挑战了人们日益增长的担忧，即意大利消费者疲软将导致年底经济停滞。食品零售额较上月飙升1.7%，而非食品销售额增长0.9%。与上一年相比，零售额增长了0.7%。

The value of retail sales in Italy soared by 1.2% from the previous month in September of 2024, rebounding sharply from the revised 0.3% drop in August to mark the sharpest increase in retail turnover since January of 2023. The data challenged growing concerns that weaker consumers in Italy would contribute to economic stagnation at the end of the year. Retail sales for food items soared by 1.7% from the previous month, while non-food sales rose by 0.9%. From the previous year, retail turnover rose by 0.7%.

2024年9月，意大利工业生产环比下降0.4%，而前一个月下调后为无变化，降幅超过0.2%的预测。消费品（-2.5%对8月份的2.8%）和能源产品（-3.8%对2.3%）的产出下降。与此同时，资本货物（1.8%对-2.5%）和中间产品（1.9%对-2.8%）出现反弹。2024年9月，工业产出同比下降4%，8月下降3.2%，为一年多来最大跌幅。

Industrial production in Italy fell 0.4% month-over-month in September 2024, from a downwardly revised no change in the previous month and dropped more than forecasts of a 0.2% decline. Output fell for consumer goods (-2.5% vs 2.8% in August) and energy goods (-3.8% vs 2.3%). Meanwhile, it rebounded for capital goods (1.8% vs -2.5%) and intermediate goods (1.9% vs -2.8%). On a yearly basis, industrial output fell by 4% year-on-year in September 2024, following a 3.2% decline in August, marking the steepest decline in over a year.

周五早盘，富时MIB指数下跌0.6%，并有望每周下跌，因为投资者权衡了美联储的最新降息。美联储周四将政策利率下调25个基点，至4.50%-4.75%，这是一个普遍预期的举措，并表示对进一步宽松持谨慎态度。与此同时，投资者密切关注着中国全国人民代表大会的最后一天，预计当局将宣布额外的财政刺激措施来支持经济。在企业方面，奢侈品股是早期下跌的股票之一，Moncler下跌2.4%，Brunello Cucinelli下跌1.2%。此外，联合圣保罗银行和联合信贷银行各下跌0.9%。

The FTSE MIB dropped 0.6% in early trading on Friday and on track for a weekly decline, as investors weighed the latest Federal Reserve rate cut. The Fed lowered its policy rate by 25bps to the range of 4.50%-4.75% on Thursday in a widely expected move, and indicated a cautious approach to further easing. Meanwhile, investors closely monitored the final day of China's National People's Congress, where authorities are expected to announce additional fiscal stimulus measures to support the economy. On the corporate front, luxury stocks were among the early decliners, with Moncler falling 2.4% and Brunello Cucinelli down 1.2%. Additionally, banks Intesa Sanpaolo and UniCredit each lost 0.9%.

意大利10年期英国国债收益率在本周早些时候达到3.84%的三个月高点后跌至3.67%，因为交易员权衡了繁忙的日程和更广泛的全球前景。在德国，总理奥拉夫·朔尔茨在其前任被解职后任命了一名新的财政部长，此举有效地解散了执政联盟，并给朔尔茨带来了提前举行选举的压力，此后政治发展成为焦点。在美国，唐纳德·特朗普的第二个任期对欧洲构成了潜在挑战，特别是在汽车和化工等关键行业的关税问题上，以及在安全问题和对乌克兰的支持方面。在货币政策方面，预计欧洲央行将在12月将其关键存款利率再下调25个基点，预计到6月将进一步下调至2%。与此同时，美联储和英国央行在11月的会议上均按照预期降息25个基点。

Italy’s 10-year BTP yield dropped to 3.67% after reaching a three-month high of 3.84% earlier in the week, as traders weighed a busy schedule and the broader global outlook. In Germany, political developments took center stage after Chancellor Olaf Scholz appointed a new finance minister, following the dismissal of his predecessor, a move that effectively dissolved the ruling coalition and raised pressure on Scholz to call a snap election. In the US, a second term for Donald Trump poses potential challenges for Europe, particularly around tariffs on critical industries like automotive and chemicals, as well as security concerns and support for Ukraine. On the monetary policy front, the ECB is expected to cut its key deposit rate by another 25 basis points in December, with projections pointing to further reduction to reach 2% by June. Meanwhile, both the Fed and the BoE implemented 25 basis point cuts at their November meetings, in line with expectations.