德国10年期债券收益率稳定在2.15%，投资者正在为繁忙的一周关键利率决策做准备。市场已经完全消化了美联储周三降息25个基点的影响，对更大幅度降息50个基点的押注也在增加。英格兰银行和日本银行也将于本周举行会议，预计两者将保持利率不变。上周，欧洲央行将利率下调了25个基点，并暗示由于欧元区通胀放缓和经济增长疲软，未来将进一步降息。市场已经预计到年底欧洲央行将降息37个基点，这意味着降息25个基点，再次降息的可能性为50%。与此同时，2024年第二季度欧元区工资同比增长4.5%，低于第一季度修订后的5.2%的增长。

Germany's 10-year bond yield remained steady at 2.15% as investors prepared for a busy week of key interest rate decisions. Markets have fully priced in a 25 bps rate cut by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, with rising bets on a larger 50 bps cut. The Bank of England and the Bank of Japan are also set to meet this week, with both expected to keep rates unchanged. Last week, the European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points and hinted at further reductions ahead due to slowing inflation and weak economic growth in the eurozone. Markets have priced in 37 bps of ECB rate cuts by year-end, implying a 25 bps cut and a 50% chance of a second cut. Meanwhile, Eurozone wages rose 4.5% year-on-year in Q2 2024, down from a revised 5.2% increase in Q1.

周一，DAX指数下跌0.3%，收于18650点左右，追随欧洲普遍谨慎的基调，此前一周飙升2%。交易员们准备迎接充满关键货币政策决定的重要一周。美联储将自2020年以来首次降息，目前大幅降息50个基点的可能性超过50%。其他货币政策决定也即将出台，包括英格兰银行、日本银行和挪威央行。在企业方面，西门子能源公司（-2.3%）、英飞凌（-1.8%）和MTU航空发动机公司（1.8%）是跌幅最大的公司，而Zalando（1.5%）和E.On（0.9%）的涨幅最大。

The DAX was down 0.3% to trade around the 18650 level on Monday, tracking a general cautious tone in Europe, and following a 2% surge in the previous week. Traders brace for a big week packed with key monetary policy decisions. The Fed is set to lower interest rates for the first time since 2020, and the odds for a jumbo 50bps rate reduction currently stand at above 50%. Other monetary policy decisions are also due, including from the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, and the Norges Bank. On the corporate front, Siemens Energy (-2.3%), Infineon (-1.8%) and MTU Aero Engines (-1.8%) were among the top losers while Zalando (1.5%) and E.ON (0.9%) booked the biggest gains.

由于交易员押注利率下降，德国10年期债券收益率降至2.13%，再次接近1月份的低点。美联储本周将自2020年以来首次降低借贷成本，过去几天大幅降息50个基点的可能性越来越大。全球其他央行，包括英格兰银行、日本银行和挪威央行，也将决定货币政策。在欧元区，欧洲央行如预期般降低了借贷成本，称最近的通胀数据大致符合预期。央行重申，只要有必要，它将保持政策利率的充分限制，并将继续遵循数据依赖和逐次会议的方法来确定进一步的降息。交易员们已经减少了10月份再次降息的赌注，但预计今年还会再降息一到两个25个基点。

Germany’s 10-year bond yield declined to 2.13%, approaching January-lows once again, as traders bet on lower interest rates. The Fed is set to reduce borrowing costs for the first time since 2020 this week, with the odds for a big 50bps cut increasing in the last days. Other central banks around the globe including the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan and the Norges Bank will also decide on monetary policy. In the Eurozone, the ECB lowered borrowing costs as anticipated, saying recent inflation data have come in broadly as expected. The central bank reiterated it will keep policy rates sufficiently restrictive for as long as necessary and will continue to follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determine further rate cuts. Traders have pared bets for another rate reduction in October, but see one or two more quarter-point cuts this year.

周五，DAX指数上涨0.9%，收于18689点，投资者关注欧洲央行降息后的货币政策前景，以及美联储下周的预期举措。在领先的公司中，SAP、德国电信和安联上涨了0.5%至1%，而西门子略有下滑，空客持平。Zalando领涨，涨幅约为10%，紧随其后的是西门子能源，涨幅为9%。本周，DAX指数上涨2%。

The DAX rose 0.9% to 18,689 on Friday as investors focused on the monetary policy outlook following the ECB's rate cut and ahead of the Federal Reserve's expected move next week. Among the leading companies, SAP, Deutsche Telekom, and Allianz gained between 0.5% and 1%, while Siemens slipped slightly, and Airbus remained flat. Zalando led the gains, surging around 10%, followed by Siemens Energy, which jumped 9%. For the week, the DAX added 2%.