法国10年期OAT收益率在本周早些时候达到3.26%的四个月高点后跌至3.14%，因为交易员权衡了繁忙的日程和更广泛的全球前景。在德国，总理奥拉夫·朔尔茨在其前任被解职后任命了一名新的财政部长，此举有效地解散了执政联盟，并给朔尔茨带来了提前举行选举的压力，此后政治发展成为焦点。在美国，唐纳德·特朗普的第二个任期对欧洲构成了潜在挑战，特别是在汽车和化工等关键行业的关税问题上，以及在安全问题和对乌克兰的支持方面。在货币政策方面，预计欧洲央行将在12月将其关键存款利率再下调25个基点，预计到6月将进一步下调至2%。与此同时，美联储和英国央行在11月的会议上均按照预期降息25个基点。

The yield on France's 10-year OAT dropped to 3.14% after reaching a four-month high of 3.26% earlier in the week, as traders weighed a busy schedule and the broader global outlook. In Germany, political developments took center stage after Chancellor Olaf Scholz appointed a new finance minister, following the dismissal of his predecessor, a move that effectively dissolved the ruling coalition and raised pressure on Scholz to call a snap election. In the US, a second term for Donald Trump poses potential challenges for Europe, particularly around tariffs on critical industries like automotive and chemicals, as well as security concerns and support for Ukraine. On the monetary policy front, the ECB is expected to cut its key deposit rate by another 25 basis points in December, with projections pointing to further reduction to reach 2% by June. Meanwhile, both the Fed and the BoE implemented 25 basis point cuts at their November meetings, in line with expectations.

CAC 40指数周五下跌0.3%，至7404点，较前一交易日创下的一周高点回落，主要受奢侈品板块大幅下跌拖累。开云集团领跌4.1%，爱马仕和欧莱雅下跌约2.1%，路威酩轩集团下跌2%，此前历峰集团的业绩未能给人留下深刻印象。其他跌幅较大的公司包括Stellantis NV，下跌2.2%，安赛乐米塔尔下跌2%。本周，该指数有望连续第三周下跌。与此同时，交易员继续权衡美联储的最新政策决定，美联储如预期般将利率下调25个基点，并表示对未来降息持谨慎立场。

The CAC 40 slipped 0.3% to 7,404 on Friday, pulling back from a one-week high reached in the previous session, primarily dragged down by sharp losses in the luxury sector. Kering led the decline with a 4.1% drop, while Hermès and L'Oréal fell around 2.1%, and LVMH declined by 2%, after Richemont’s results failed to impress. Other significant losers included Stellantis NV, which fell 2.2%, and ArcelorMittal, down 2%. For the week, the index is on track for its third consecutive weekly loss. Meanwhile, traders continued to weigh the latest Federal Reserve policy decision, in which the Fed lowered the interest rate by 25 bps, as expected, and signaled a cautious stance on future rate cuts.

2024年9月，法国的贸易逆差从8月份向下修正的77亿欧元扩大到83亿欧元，高于65亿欧元缺口的预测。这是自2023年10月以来最大的赤字，出口下降1.4%，至485.9亿欧元，为2022年5月以来的最低水平。主要拖累因素来自工业产品（-0.9%）、运输设备（-7.9%）、天然烃和其他采掘业、电力和废物（-9.3%）以及精炼石油产品和焦炭（-21.3%）的销售。主要地区的出口下降：欧盟（-0.7%）、亚洲（-3.7%）和美洲（-1.9%）。与此同时，由于机械、电气、电子和计算机设备（-4.4%）以及农业、林业、渔业和水产养殖产品（-1.8%）的采购减少，进口额下降了0.3%，至568.5亿欧元。从地区来看，从欧盟进口下降了0.4%，从美洲进口下降了2.5%，从非洲进口大幅下降了15.8%。

The trade gap in France widened to €8.3 billion in September 2024 from a downwardly revised €7.7 billion gap in August and above forecasts of a €6.5 billion shortfall. It is the largest deficit since October 2023, as exports dropped by 1.4% to €48.59 billion, their lowest level since May 2022. The main drag came from sales of industrial products (-0.9%), transport equipment (-7.9%), natural hydrocarbons and other extractive industries, electricity, and waste (-9.3%), as well as refined petroleum products and coke (-21.3%). Exports fell across key regions: the European Union (-0.7%), Asia (-3.7%), and the Americas (-1.9%). Meanwhile, imports declined by 0.3% to €56.85 billion, driven by reduced purchases of mechanical, electrical, electronic, and computer equipment (-4.4%) and agricultural, forestry, fishing, and aquaculture products (-1.8%). Regionally, imports from the EU dropped by 0.4%, from the Americas by 2.5%, and from Africa by a significant 15.8%.

2024年9月，法国的经常账户赤字从上个月向上修正的12亿欧元扩大到21亿欧元。商品账户赤字从8月份的64亿欧元增至69亿欧元，而服务盈余从51亿欧元降至46亿欧元。与此同时，9月份初级收入盈余从上月的43.8亿欧元增至44.4亿欧元，而次级收入赤字保持不变，为42亿欧元。

France's current account deficit widened to EUR 2.1 billion in September 2024, from an upwardly revised EUR 1.2 billion in the previous month. The goods account deficit increased to EUR 6.9 billion from EUR 6.4 billion in August, while the services surplus decreased to EUR 4.6 billion from EUR 5.1 billion. Meanwhile, primary income surplus went up to EUR 4.44 billion in September from EUR 4.38 billion in the preceding month, while secondary income deficit remained unchanged at EUR 4.2 billion.