欧洲股市周一下跌，斯托克50指数下跌0.4%，斯托克600指数下跌0.2%，投资者等待美联储和英格兰银行的重大利率决定。预计美联储将自2020年以来首次降息，现在更有可能降息50个基点。其他关键决策预计将由英格兰银行、日本银行和挪威央行做出。科技股下跌1.3%，部分原因是苹果公司表现不佳。ASML控股（-2.4%）、爱马仕国际（-1.4%）和路威酩轩集团（-0.8%）股价下跌，而雀巢在摩根士丹利下调其股票评级后下跌0.7%。相反，诺和诺德、SAP、阿斯利康和诺华上涨0.5%至0.8%。蓝格赛在拒绝了QXO的初步收购提议后，股价飙升超过8%。

European stocks fell on Monday, with the Stoxx 50 down 0.4% and the Stoxx 600 down 0.2%, as investors awaited major interest rate decisions from the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates for the first time since 2020, with a 50-bps reduction now more likely than not. Other key decisions are anticipated from the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, and the Norges Bank. Tech stocks dropped 1.3%, partly due to Apple’s weak performance. ASML Holding (-2.4%), Hermes International (-1.4%), and LVMH (-0.8%) saw declines, while Nestle dropped 0.7% after Morgan Stanley downgraded its stock. Conversely, Novo Nordisk, SAP, AstraZeneca, and Novartis rose by 0.5% to 0.8%. Rexel surged over 8% after rejecting a preliminary acquisition proposal from QXO.

欧元攀升至1.112美元上方，受美元走软的支撑，投资者等待美联储的关键政策会议，预计这将是自2020年以来的首次降息。市场已经完全消化了周三降息25个基点的预期，越来越多的人猜测降息50个基点。英格兰银行和日本银行本周也将举行会议，预计将维持目前的利率。上周，欧洲央行将利率下调了25个基点，并暗示由于欧元区通胀放缓和经济增长疲软，未来将进一步降息。市场已经预计到年底欧洲央行将降息37个基点，这表明可能降息25个基点，再次降息的可能性为50%。与此同时，2024年第二季度欧元区工资同比增长4.5%，低于第一季度修订后的5.2%的增长。

The Euro climbed above $1.112, supported by a weaker dollar as investors await the Federal Reserve’s key policy meeting, where the first rate cut since 2020 is expected. Markets have fully priced in a 25 bps cut on Wednesday, with growing speculation of a 50 bps move. The Bank of England and the Bank of Japan will also meet this week, both expected to maintain current rates. Last week, the European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points and hinted at further reductions ahead due to slowing inflation and weak economic growth in the eurozone. Markets have priced in 37 bps of ECB rate cuts by year-end, indicating a likely 25 bps reduction and a 50% chance of a second cut. Meanwhile, Eurozone wages grew 4.5% year-on-year in Q2 2024, down from a revised 5.2% increase in Q1.

2024年7月，欧元区录得212亿欧元的贸易顺差，超过了市场预期的149亿欧元，远高于去年同期的67亿欧元顺差。出口额同比增长10.2%，达到2520亿欧元，主要是由于化学品和相关产品（+17.9%）；食品和活体动物（+15.1%）；杂项制成品（+11.3%）和制成品（+8.4%）。与此同时，进口增长放缓4%，至2300亿欧元，因为化学品和相关产品的采购量增加（+10.4%）被矿物燃料、润滑油和相关产品（-4.5%）以及机械和运输设备（-0.5%）的采购量下降部分抵消。

The Euro Area recorded a trade surplus of EUR 21.2 billion in July 2024, beating market expectations of EUR 14.9 billion and significantly higher than the EUR 6.7 billion surplus from the same month last year. Exports jumped by 10.2% year-on-year to EUR 252 billion, largely on account of chemicals and related products (+17.9%); food & live animals (+15.1%); miscellaneous manufactured articles (+11.3%) and manufactured goods (+8.4%). Meanwhile, imports rose at a slower 4% to EUR 230 billion, as higher purchases of chemicals and related products (+10.4%) were partly offset by declines in those of mineral fuels, lubricants and related (-4.5%) and machinery & transport equipment (-0.5%).

2024年第二季度，欧元区的工资同比增长4.5%，此前今年前三个月下调了5.2%，这是自2022年最后一个季度以来的最大增幅。制造业的工资增长放缓（5.3%对5.7%）；建筑业（5.6%对6%）；信息和通信（4.8%对5.6%）；金融和保险活动（4.7%对5.7%）；专业、科学和技术活动（5.6%对6.6%）；采矿和采石业（5%对7.8%）；供水、排污（4.3%对5.6%）；运输和储存（4.1%对4.9%）。相比之下，公用事业（4.1%对2.2%）、批发和零售贸易（5.2%对4.5%）和房地产（4.9%对0.3%）的工资增长加快。在欧盟最大的经济体中，德国（4.7%对6.1%）和西班牙（3.7%对4.6%）的工资增长有所放缓，意大利稳定在3.3%，但法国的工资增长加快（3.4%对3.2%）。

Wages in the Eurozone rose 4.5% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2024, following a downwardly revised 5.2% surge in the first three months of the year, which was the biggest increase since the last quarter of 2022. Wage growth slowed for manufacturing (5.3% vs 5.7%); construction (5.6% vs 6%); information and communication (4.8% vs 5.6%); financial and insurance activities (4.7% vs 5.7%); professional, scientific and technical activities (5.6% vs 6.6%); mining and quarrying sector (5% vs 7.8%); water supply, sewerage (4.3% vs 5.6%); and transport and storage (4.1% vs 4.9%). In contrast, wage growth accelerated in utilities (4.1% vs 2.2%), wholesale and retail trade (5.2% vs 4.5%) and real estate (4.9% vs 0.3%). Among the bloc's largest economies, wage growth eased in Germany (4.7% vs 6.1%) and Spain (3.7% vs 4.6%) and steadied in Italy at 3.3%, but accelerated in France (3.4% vs 3.2%).