欧洲股市周五收平，此前连续九个交易日上涨，市场评估了最新的企业发展以及特朗普总统时期与美国贸易壁垒的风险。斯托克50指数收平于5223点，为2000年以来的最高点，斯托克600指数下跌不到半点，收于530点，仍接近历史高点。奢侈品股涨幅最大，此前博柏利第四季度销售额强劲，LVMH、爱马仕、保乐力加和开云集团股价上涨4.3%至1%。与此同时，特朗普对主要贸易伙伴征收关税的温和言论推动汽车制造商反弹，宝马、梅赛德斯-奔驰、大众和Stellantis的涨幅在2%至1%之间。在欧元区以外，诺和诺德公司的一种减肥药取得了可喜的成果，股价飙升7%。另一方面，ASML以2%的跌幅结束了其动荡的一周。在数据方面，新的PMI数据表明欧洲经济活动略有复苏。

European stocks closed flat on Friday following nine consecutive sessions of gains as markets assessed the latest corporate developments and risks of trade barriers with the United States under President Trump. The STOXX 50 closed flat at 5,223, the highest since 2,000, and the STOXX 600 lost less than half a point to close at 530, remaining close to its record high. Luxury stocks were among the top gainers after Burberry posted strong sales in the fourth quarter, lifting LVMH, Hermes, Pernod Ricard, and Kering between 4.3% and 1%. In the meantime, Trump’s softer rhetoric on tariffs against major trading partners drove auto manufacturers to rebound, with BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Volkswagen, and Stellantis adding between 2% and 1%. Outside the Eurozone, Novo Nordisk soared 7% on promising results in one of its weight-loss drugs. On the other hand, ASML capped its volatile week with a 2% drop. On the data front, fresh PMI figures indicated a slight recovery for European economic activity.

欧元攀升至1.05美元，为一个多月来的最高水平，在特朗普总统似乎软化了他对普遍关税的立场并主张立即降息后，美元走弱支撑了欧元。此外，欧元区和德国的快速PMI提供了一些乐观情绪，因为私营部门活动显示出复苏的迹象，制造业收缩有所缓解。与此同时，普遍预计欧洲央行将在2024年四次降息后，于下周再次下调关键存款利率25个基点。投资者还将密切关注有关央行今年计划的任何信号，市场预计未来几个月将进一步降息。

The Euro climbed toward $1.05, its highest level in over a month, supported by a weaker dollar after President Trump appeared to soften his stance on universal tariffs and advocated for an immediate drop in interest rates. Additionally, flash PMIs for the Eurozone and Germany provided some optimism, as private sector activity showed signs of recovery and the manufacturing contraction eased. Meanwhile, the ECB is widely expected to implement another 25bps cut to the key deposit rate next week, following four reductions in 2024. Investors will also closely monitor any signals regarding the central bank's plans for the year, with markets anticipating further rate cuts in the coming months.

HCOB Flash欧元区制造业采购经理人指数从12月的45.1升至2025年1月的46.1，高于45.3的预测。该数据显示，尽管产出、新业务和就业继续下降，但制造业的收缩幅度是八个月来最小的。在价格方面，制造业投入成本五个月来首次上涨。与此同时，制造业乐观情绪升至七个月高点。汉堡商业银行首席经济学家Cyrus de la Rubia博士表示：“制造业仍处于衰退之中，但衰退速度有所放缓。该行业继续迅速裁员，新订单也在下降。另一方面，公司对未来更加乐观，预计一年后产量会更高。这可能是特朗普的意外影响，也可能是由于认为在经历了近两年的衰退后已经触底。”。

The HCOB Flash Eurozone Manufacturing PMI rose to 46.1 in January 2025 from 45.1 in December and above forecasts of 45.3. The reading pointed to the smallest contraction in the manufacturing sector in eight months, although output, new business and employment continued to decline. On the price front, manufacturing input costs rose for the first time in five months. Meanwhile, manufacturing optimism strengthened to a seven-month high. “The manufacturing sector is still in recession, but the pace of decline eased a bit. The sector continues to shed staff rapidly, and new orders are falling too. On the flip side, companies are much more optimistic about the future, envisioning higher output a year from now. This might be an unexpected Trump effect or due to the view that the bottom has been reached after a near two-year recession", Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said.

HCOB欧元区服务业采购经理人指数从12月的51.6微降至2025年1月的51.4，略低于市场预期的51.5。虽然服务业活动连续第二个月扩大，但增长温和，略低于12月。服务业的新业务增加，但国际需求下降。值得注意的是，劳动力数量出现了六个月来最快的增长。在成本方面，投入价格大幅飙升，创下九个月来最大涨幅。展望未来，对服务业的信心有所减弱。

The HCOB Eurozone Services PMI edged down to 51.4 in January 2025, from 51.6 in December, slightly missing market expectations of 51.5. While services activity expanded for the second consecutive month, growth was modest and slightly slower than in December. New business in the services sector rose, but international demand declined. Notably, workforce numbers saw their fastest increase in six months. On the cost front, input prices surged significantly, marking the steepest rise in nine months. Looking ahead, confidence in the services sector softened.