周五,由于对澳大利亚储备银行货币政策的鸽派押注,澳元汇率略低于0.62美元,徘徊在两年多来的最低水平附近。澳新银行集团加入了越来越多的银行预测提前降息的行列,现在预计澳大利亚储备银行将在2月采取行动,而不是等到5月,理由是国内通胀有所缓解。市场现在预计下个月降息的可能性为75%,比几天前的50%大幅增加。本周早些时候公布的数据显示,以调整后的平均值衡量,该国的潜在通胀率从10月的3.5%降至11月的3.2%。在外部,澳元也面临着强势美元的压力,因为投资者正在为12月的非农就业报告做准备。
The Australian dollar held just below $0.62 on Friday, hovering near its lowest levels in over two years amid dovish bets on Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy. ANZ Group, joining a growing number of banks forecasting an earlier rate cut, now expects the RBA to act in February rather than wait until May, citing signs of easing domestic inflation. Markets are now pricing in a 75% chance of a rate cut next month, a significant increase from 50% just days ago. Data released earlier this week showed that the country’s underlying inflation, measured by the trimmed mean, slowed to 3.2% in November from 3.5% in October. Externally, the Aussie also faced pressure from a strong US dollar as investors prepared for the December nonfarm payrolls report.