Wave 1 is from 117.93 (2007.10.15) to 113.23 (2007.10.22). The length is 470 pips. Wave 3 is from 115.91 (2007.11.1) to 109.12 (2007.11.12). The length is 679 pips. If the assumption is right, the length of Wave 5 is between 470 pips and 679 pips. However, 1.618*470>679. Then I think mostly the length of wave 5 is between 470 and 650(470*1.382) pips. Case 1: ABC correction. The C correction is much more zigzag than A and B. The price will go up to the agreement of parallel channel resistance and prior weekly support, which is the new resistance. Starting from 112.09. The minimum target of wave 5 is 107.39. The maximum target is 1.382 of wave 1, which is 105.60. Case 2: ABCDE correction. The C correction won't go beyond the height of A correction (111.74). Then I guess the E correction will complete between 111.0 and 111.50. Then the wave 5 shall start from there. The length of wave 5 is the same as case 1. Let's see a larger picture: Wave 1 is from 124.13 (2007.6.22) to 111.59 (2007.8.17). The length is 1254 pips. Wave 3 started from 117.93 (2007.10.15). The length has to be equal or larger than wave 1. The minimum target is 105.39. 抱歉用憋脚的英文写了，用英文写日志快一些。这是自己的本周trade plan。 用嘉盛平台的用户应该都熟知他家strategist, Todd Gordon，一句受用很久的话即是"Plan a trade and trade the plan." 仅供参考，静观其变。Good luck, traders.

顶一个,姓朱的熊猫:lol

To see further, we know the ultimate target is 79.75
, which is analyzed in the history chart. For reference, please take a look at 美日历史回顾和展望
http://www.talkforex.com/viewthread.php?tid=124070&extra=page%3D1 Wave 3 is the maximum of wave 1,3 and 5. If the target of wave 3 is only 105.39. Then there is a long way for wave 5 to go to reach 79.75. Moreover, the length of wave 5 will be larger than wave 3. Thus, it is a contradiction
. Case 1: Wave 3 length=1254*1.618
=2029 pips => Wave 3 target = 97.64. Subcase 1: Wave4 = 0.382*2029 = 775 pips and it shall end at 105.39. The final length of wave5 shall be around 2564 pips. 2564>2029. Contradiction again!
Not to mention 0.618 retracement. Shall be a contradiction too. Case 2: Wave 3 length=1254*2
=2508 pips => Wave 3 target = 92.85
.
Subcase 1: Wave4 = 0.382
*2508 = 958 pips and it shall end at 102.43. The final length of wave5 shall be around 2268 pips. 2268 < 2508. It shall work. Not to mention 0.618 retracement. Case 3: Wave 3 length=1254*2.618
=3283 pips => Wave 3 target = 85.1
Subcase 1: Wave 4 = 0.382
*3283 = 1254 pips and it shall end at 97.64. The final length of wave 5 shall be around 1789 pips. 1789 < 3283. It shall work. Subcase 2: Wave 4 = 0.618
*3283 = 2029 pips and it shall end at 105.39. The final length of wave 5 shall be around 2564 pips. 2564<3283. It shall work. In summary, the target of big wave 3 shall be between 85.1 and 92.85
. It shall move for months or even years
. However, Eliott Wave works by induction
. If my analysis for the history chart is correct and all the waves can be analyzed as minor Eliott Waves. The forecast shall be correct also. It's a wild
speculation. Let's wait and see. [ 本帖最后由 pandazhu 于 2007-11-19 05:01 编辑 ]

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LZ能不能用中文啊 ，偶英文很差地說:$ :lol :lol

看不太明白的朋友可以借ＧＯＯＧＬＥ的在线翻译系统帮你大概的翻译一下．可能不是十分准确．但大概意思能让你明白:　你去搜索　语言工具　就找的到

前晚差了20点，错过了欧美突破三角形correction的一单，幸好美日终于在昨日下午突破，让我欣慰许多。 美日在过去一周内走出一波非常态的4浪，既非ABC，也非ABCDE的三角形走势，而是一波ABCDE的下降楔形。 在突破5-D 支撑线时，我下了5 lots，之后又在确认突破后相继下了13 lots和17 lots，使仓位达到25%，之后美日在亚洲早盘小幅反弹达110左右，但下破趋势已现，今早得知油价向100刀进发，美日趋近25年weekly support，开始挣扎。今早又在108.60加仓15 lots，并将stop loss降至109.00保证不败。道指目前也在weekly support上挣扎，我想这两根weekly support会在同时破位。 从E点 (110.56)开始，下降至少470pips(1浪的长度，详见楼上分析)，110-4.7=105.3是minimum target，但吐息的过程会有些痛苦，大家要注意protect profit。 Happy Thanksgiving, traders! [ 本帖最后由 pandazhu 于 2007-11-21 23:11 编辑 ]position_1121.JPG1121dji_weekly.gif1121usdjpy_h4.gif

为避免吐今天的3倍利息，并且15MIN Chart以下的Stochastic都已接近底部，在108.35平仓，入帐4300，:) 美日仍在下跌，继续关注走势，5PM EST 后寻找机会再入市。 [ 本帖最后由 pandazhu 于 2007-11-22 05:24 编辑 ]

国宝的厉害大大的。哈哈

强烈建议用中文:L

:L 熊猫好厉害啊:victory:

密切关注中:( :( :(