看不一文章对ＦＥＤＳ周四进行预测和分析，　有助于各位对这场暴风雨做好未雨绸缪的准备．　 原文连接 http://www.marctomarket.com/2013/06/fed-and-flash-pmis-dominate-week-ahead.html 部分翻译和原文 First is the statement itself. We suspect there will be little there to suggest change in QE. There are unlikely to be significant changes in the economic assessment. There may be some minor tweaks in the language. For example, the easing of price pressures may be noted in stronger terms that the last statement's recognition that inflation was "somewhat below" the FOMC's long-term objective. 1.看会议声明, 我觉得很少QE变化基本会很小, 经济评估的重大变化也不大可能, 可能语言上会有微调.比如说, 长期通胀压力 在这次声明中可能被叙述为"somewhat below FOMC's long-term objective."貌似FOMC长期目标...以下 Second, the Fed will provided updated forecasts. These may be more important than usual as it is part of the Fed's forward guidance. If the Fed is to taper off its asset purchases, ideally, it would be reflected in anticipation of quicker growth, a faster decline in unemployment, and/or high inflation. Yet, we expect little change in the forecasts, and, if anything, it may shave this year's growth forecast from the 2.3%-2.8% pace forecast in March. The unemployment rate was forecast at 7.3%-7.5% this year and in May it stood at 7.6%. We look for little change there. The core PCE deflator forecast was 1.5%-1.6%. In April it stood at 1.1%. There does seem to be scope for the Fed's forecasts to be shaved a bit. 2.FED会更新经济预期, 如果FED要退市 , 理论上说, 应该会反映在对更快经济增长, 更快的失业率下降, 或者更高通长这些方面上.目前, 我不大期望这种预期.FED在3月份对今年GDP的预期是增长2.3到2.8%, 失业率今年7.3->7.5(五月是7.6%), 我觉得变化不大, CORE PCE 1.5->1.6(而4月是1.1)这意味着FEDS在这一点预期上上会改变比较大. Third, Bernanke will hold his post-meeting press conference. We expect his prepared remarks to avoid specifics about tapering, except to note that 1) tapering is not the same as tightening and 2) the Fed's decision is data dependent. We see the recent tapering talk as an effective exercise of forward guidance that succeeded in removing or at least diminishing the risk of asset bubbles being fueled by the Fed's continued purchases. 3. 老伯会发布记者会, 我估计他不会太详细地说关于退市的, 估计只有两点会讲到. 1) 退市不等于收缩(货币政策)2)FEDS的决定 是基于数椐的.我觉得最近关于退市的言论是FEDS为打破或者说消灭 FEDS不停地购入资产所导致的泡沫而使用的办法一个有效练习