Stocks in the United States and Europe declined and the euro dipped on Friday after initial optimism about Madrid's debt-cutting plans gave way to anxiety over its troubled banks and faltering global economic growth. Spain plans to ask for around 40 billion euros ($51.46 billion) in European aid to recapitalize its weak banks, Bank of Spain Deputy Governor Fernando Restoy said on Friday. An independent audit of Spanish banks by consultancy Oliver Wyman showed the country's troubled lenders would need 59.3 billion euros in extra capital to ride out a serious economic downturn. Spain will remain in focus, analysts said, with Moody's Investors Service expected to finish a credit rating review soon that may cost Madrid its sovereign investment-grade status. "At some point that (Spanish) credibility issue is likely to come back," said Derek Halpenny, European head of FX research at Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi in London. "This is the fifth package - so the history of previous packages is that they weren't enough and lacked credibility."

楼主好早，节日及假期愉快~~:hua:

The European single currency and other euro zone asset markets were expected to come under renewed pressure as the focus swings back onto Spain, which is seen as likely to call for international help soon to meet its debt financing needs. Some in the markets expect the trigger for a bailout to be pulled when ratings agency Moody's announces its latest review of Spain's sovereign rating which may see Europe's fourth-largest economy downgraded to junk status. "We will see the euro head lower until Spain applies for a bailout and the probability of that happening could rise if Moody's downgrades Spain," said Adam Myers, senior foreign exchange strategist at Credit Agricole. But with no news from Moody's on Monday, Spanish bond yields were falling and investors sold safe-haven German government bonds on relief that Friday's report on the banks showed extra capital needs were manageable, removing a major obstacle in the way of any international bailout.

上周临近结束开始尝试欧元多单，两单都被止损，今早再度尝试欧元多单，总算保住了。 本周澳洲、日本、英国、欧洲议息，美国公布议息决议与非农，以上都是重要事件，结果对后续行情有关键的指引作用。

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本帖最后由 文成勇就 于 2012-10-2 21:27 编辑 今天澳洲降息，在九月的会议纪录已经有暗示，所以并不意外。此前日本、欧洲、美国都已经相继公布宽松货币政策。 对于日本、英国、欧洲的利率决议，个人认为保持利率不变的可能性更大，也应该如此，因此本周欧元看涨。

Global shares edged higher on Tuesday while the euro advanced on expectations Spain will soon request a bailout seen as necessary to resolve the euro zone debt crisis, but uncertainty about the timing of the aid limited gains. Spain's borrowing costs fell after European officials said on Monday that Madrid is ready to make the request as early as next weekend although Germany has signaled that it should hold off.

Earlier on Tuesday, Australia's central bank cut its main rate by a quarter point to 3.25 percent. The Australian dollar fell to a one-month low of $1.0291 and last traded down 0.6 percent at $1.0298. It was the RBA's third cut in six months as the slowdown in China, a strong currency, soft export prices and benign inflation all slow its economy.

The euro was up 0.3 percent against the dollar to around $1.2940 with attention firmly on the ECB meeting which is not expected to cut rates but is expected to give an update on the economic outlook and its current talks with Spain. Markets are waiting for Spain to request a rescue from other euro zone members as this would trigger an ECB bond buying program that could boost the euro and send peripheral government bond yields sharply lower. Ahead of the ECB meeting, debt markets were little changed awaiting a Spanish debt auction for up to 4 billion euros of mostly shorter term bonds that could add to the pressure on Madrid to act. Later on Thursday, weekly jobless claims and U.S. factory orders for August will be released, as well as minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve's September 12-13 meeting at which the central bank launched aggressive stimulus packages aimed at reducing high unemployment. These reports precede Friday's monthly jobs data, the first such labor market update since the Fed's action.

本帖最后由 文成勇就 于 2012-10-4 16:09 编辑 _dji daily.gif

An auction earlier on Thursday saw Spanish borrowing costs fall in most cases Draghi was clear however that the existence of a bond-buying program, called OMT, had already had an impact. "OMTs have helped to alleviate ... tensions (in financial markets) over the past few weeks, thereby reducing concerns about the materialization of destructive scenarios," Draghi said. "The mechanism (to buy) is in place." The central bank announced that its governing council had decided to keep its main refinancing rate steady at 0.75 percent, a record low. Analysts expect the bank to cut rates later this year, but only after the new bond program has started. Draghi said however that the ECB had not discussed a cut or potential cuts. Draghi said there had been some inflationary pressures lately.

The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits rose only slightly last week, keeping in place a trend that suggests a mild improvement in the labor market. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits climbed 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 367,000, the Labor Department said, below economists' expectations for a rise to 370,000. The claims report showed the number of people still receiving benefits under regular state programs after an initial week of aid was unchanged at 3.28 million in the week ended September 22. It was the first time since December last year that so-called continuing claims were unchanged.

The euro zone is considering aiding Spain by providing insurance for investors who buy government bonds in a move designed to maintain Spanish access to capital markets and minimize the cost to European taxpayers, European sources said.

One senior European source said the plan could cost about 50 billion euros ($64.5 billion) for a year. It would enable Spain to cover its full funding needs and trigger potentially unlimited European Central bank buying of short-term Spanish bonds in the secondary market.

呵呵，顶楼主的好单，连损两次换来一个漂亮的仓位~~

谢谢。能够坚决做多，还是来自于基本面与技术分析的支持呀！

呵呵，能否回顾一下8月份开始的这一波上涨和9月份的回调在基本面方面是什么事件决定和推动的吗？

我的帖子里面都有，只怕你没有耐心看。我也重新翻了一下自己的帖子，8月份上涨来自于欧洲和美国央行的量宽政策，9月份回调原因是由于中、法、德等国经济数据的疲软和市场对西班牙债务问题的关注。

关键是英语看起来太吃力了~~:')

呵呵。我明白为什么我的帖子不受大家欢迎，因为我总是发些英文新闻。也怪自己懒得去翻译。最终这个帖子也变成了我个人的自留地。最近也想明白了，没人捧场，就当是自己对行情发展的记录吧！有空翻看一下，对行情的脉络有了清晰的认识！