EUR/USD Fundanmental Although ADP Non-Farm Employment Change of US, which was reported last Wednesday, was 400 more than forecase which was 205K, the number of Non-Farm Employment Change, which was 120K, was significantly less than 207K which is the forecasting number. However, the Unemployment Rate reduced 0.1% to 8.2%. Dollar had once soared last week as markets speculation of QE3 from Fed cooled deeply with good data in the recent two months. Anticipating from the recent FOMC minitus, I believe that the Fed is moving their focus away from QE3. With weak data last week, I am not sure that the market will sell the greenback tremendously, because it was weak data reported last and tough situation in Europe. It is obvious that Spain's poor bond auction and high unemployment rate of 10.8% last week can not give EURO support the confidence of investors.I believe that Euro will rise to a certain level, which is difficult to touch the highest price of last month. In this week, we should focus on speech of several Fed officials, which will probably concern to the weak data and QE3. Therefore, it is uncertain which side will influence the balance further.In my opinion，Euro will rise in a certain degree, but can not go further. Technical Daily Charts Trend: go down after retracing There is a fluctuation in range which is from 1.3003 to 1.3485 after the price rebounded from 1.2610 to 1.3485.It will probably reach the second bottom around 1.2828. 4 Hours Charts Trend: go upwards while fluctuating The fall will not be end. Although the price rebounded about 100 pips from 1.3033 to 1.3133, that the price appeared yesterday, the retracement did not reach the Fibonacci 38.2%. The long position is still weak.The red trend line will be the strong resistance against the price. Resistance Level: 1.3156 1.3169 1.3209 1.3249 1.3282-99 Support Level: 1.3082 1.3049-55-61 1.3022 1.2998 1.2954-59 Trend Range: from 1.2954 to 1.3299 Trading Suggestion: Open a long positon referencing the support Level in short term .Keep short positons which opened above 1.3299. Horizontal Line legend Retacement: Bold Firebrick: Level 1 Fibonacci retraceable target Bold Tomato: Level 2 Fibonacci retraceable target Tomato: Level 3 Fibonacci retraceable target Bold Green: Level 4 Fibonacci retraceable target Green: Level 5 Fibonacci retraceable target DarkSlateGray: Level 6 Fibonacci retraceable target DarkGoldenrod£: Level 7 Fibonacci retraceable target Expansion Bold LightSeaGreen: Level I Fibonacci expansible target Bold Purple: Level II Fibonacci expansible target Purple: Level III Fibonacci expansible target Blue: Level IV Fibonacci expansible target Navy: Level V Fibonacci expansible target Pink: other important target [ 本帖最后由 aikws2008 于 2012-4-10 09:16 编辑 ]20120410-EU-4.jpg20120410-EU-d.jpg

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