British Pound: Will it Break the Range?
For the past four trading days, the British pound has been stuck in a 200 pip range against the U.S. dollar and a 115 pip range against the Euro. However the bottom of the range in both the GBP/USD and EUR/USD have been broken, leading currency traders to wonder if the larger range will be tested as well. For the GBP/USD, this would be a break of the 1.6750 or 1.60 level and for EUR/GBP, the levels to watch are 85 and 87 cents. Despite the 1 percent drop in the EUR/USD today, the GBP/USD has been relatively unchanged. One month GBP/USD volatilities have fallen to the lowest level since September 2008. Such a sharp contraction in volatility usually suggests that a breakout is imminent. The only question is, in which direction. Here are some sound arguments in favor of an upside or downside breakout. Arguments for upside breakout in GBP/USD - Housing market continues to show signs of stabilization, house prices rise for first time in 2009 - Break of 86 cents in EUR/GBP could lead to GBP buying - Ascending triangle formation - Moving averages are in “perfect order” which favor a new uptrend Arguments for downside breakout in GBP/USD - Risk appetite is waning, which could drag all of the higher yielding currencies lower - U.K. Banks could be set for losses as clock ticks on GBP300bn commercial property loans - Q2 GDP was very weak - Risk of Bank of England increasing asset purchase program - GBP/USD breaks 4 day low Given the arguments, we believe that the chances of a downside breakout is greater than an upside one. Based upon the following chart, a break of near term support should come soon at which point, the next level or support or resistance would be the highs and lows of the past 2 months.gbpusd072909_1.jpggbpusd072909.jpg

喊一单，SELL Cable@ 1.6522 。止损1.6585！损的可能性大于50%,但风险收益率相当地诱惑，哈哈 [ 本帖最后由 无梦无醒 于 2009-7-31 11:07 编辑 ]

支持！跟上SELL一单。

英语看不懂。。。:(

赫赫，这一篇还可以，现在帮帮在ｔｒｉａｎｇｌｅ顶部，看看能不能破，破了，上面的假设不成立。

那个英文来自哪个网站呀,,给个连接看看了,,:)

相当的有诱惑力，我也进了 :037:

Kathy Lien的主页，看过她的书《Day Trading and Swing Trading the Currency Market: Technical and Fundamental Strategies to Profit from Market Moves 》感觉她的水平不错！她好像是华人？韩国人？日本人？另外请问主要货币对的波动率哪里有提供，看上面的图好像是彭博社的 [ 本帖最后由 无梦无醒 于 2009-7-31 11:40 编辑 ]

wow....:052:

跟一单，接回昨晚的单子

她的主页我好久没去看了，现在每天看看她在gft上面每天的评论 她最近比较看好区间操作。

此单损的可能性相当大了，如果英镑有回试我的入场位，我将平仓，不回头就损好了

进场急了点，好在轻仓，应该等到6550附近的，下来就先出来，不下来就套着。不信美元反弹就结束了，英镑1小时的5浪看在哪里结束，可以等到回调出场吧

我已在刚才打下来的那一瞬间出场这个没有准备的单子，剩下的是等待

仙人指路还是墓碑线,上方重要阻力FIBO 76.4%，突破将创新高 [ 本帖最后由 无梦无醒 于 2009-7-31 15:02 编辑 ]1.png

看了，不会做的，day trading 不是我的强项。PS统计数据表明，各大银行的交易员总成绩为负，之所以存在，要保持市场流动性。内部交易员一般没点差或点差很小很小的，大家见仁见智吧

哈哈，差一点就损了:P

波动率很有用的，可惜是BLOOMBERG，收费啊

好啊，难道只有收费软件才有查看吗？以前SAXO bank每天都有提供，现在也没有了:M