25楼
Firstly, I want want to preface this by saying that I am a proud American, and I like Obama, but I think that he has been dumped with a problem that is simply too big.
I remember watching the live telecast of of Tim Geithner's speech and was completely UNDERwhelmed by this new Plan. Wall St tanked almost 400 pips on the day and the Forex pairs were surprisingly subdued.
There are three key points of the Geithner Plan;
Firstly, US Bank regulators will review capital levels of all Banks and conduct "stress tests". Hmmmm...This will rely on the Banks giving the Regulators full and honest information and details...Do I trust Wall St banks to give this information??? Not a chance !!!!!!! These are the same banks which have hidden all the problems and which have refused to even tell anyone what they did with the initial $350 Billion bailout Funds.. This part of the Plan is a PR exercise and will be a whitewash.
Secondly, The Govt lend "investors in securities" as much as a Trillion dollars for student, credit card, auto and commmercial mortgage loans. Guess who will be the "investors in securities" ??? Yep, you guessed it...the same old Wall St companies. So the Govt is giving them a Trillion dollars of taxpayers money to buy loans from themselves
Thirdly, the Govt will spend an initial $500 Billion- $1 Trillion to encourage "private investors" to acquire banks bad mortgages so that banks get to cleanse their balance shees while "private sector buyers" will determine the price for previously illiquid assets. Whoa...what a sucker job!!! Who are these "private investors"??? Yep, you guessed it again...they will be the same old Wall St banks picking up their own bad mortgages..at a price that they will decide on... but with $500 Billion-$1Trillion of taxpayers money.
I am sorry, but I think that this strategy is the greatest heist of all time. I say let the market sort it out...If the Wall St banks are broke, then let another bank buy them..If the stock price is too high then for anyone to buy them, then let the stock price fall to zero and let stronger international Banks take them over for the cost of their debt.(JP Morgan, HSBC and Standard Chartered could easily buy them).
Remember,the Wall St Banks are already insolvent...the ONLY thing holding their stock prices up is the government Bailout funds...If those funds were withheld, the Wall St Banks are worthless.
Alternatively, if still no-one wants to buy them, then nationalise them for 12 months, stabilise them with Govt guarantees, find all the skeletons that the banks have been hiding, fix them and then sell the Bank again to private stockholders. But get rid of the current executive teams in each of the banks.
How will this affect us as traders? Well, I think the economy is going to get much worse as people start to realise that this Plan will NOT work. But just as the Govt denied that we were in recession for 12 months after it was blatantly obvious that we were in a recession, the Govt will keep denying that we are heading into the deepest recession for at least 80 years...and maybe, just maybe.... even worse than the Depression of the 1930's. Thats the bad news.
The good news is that the BEST asset class to be in is.... currencies. All other asset classes, especially property and stocks, are falling with no real option of capitalising on those falls. (I am discounting Futures because I think that Forex is a "safer" market to be trading). Gold is a dubious option, as Gold is priced on the dubious assumption that one day we will be forced to go back on a Gold standard... And I don't believe that we will ever go there again.
We are extremely fortunate that we are all involved in, and are acquiring skills in, an asset class that allows us to maximise our assets by trading on the strengths and weaknesses of the two largest currencies in the world. And one thing that will never disappear is Money...One currency may change in value compared to other currencies but Money will always be in use everywhere in the world.
As the world is going through this crisis, now more than ever before, we are in the BEST business on the Planet.
峰峦如聚 波涛如怒 山河表里潼关路
发表于:2009-02-22 09:55只看该作者
26楼
英文哪里看的懂啊,楼主你的翻译下嘛
韬客社区www.talkfx.co
发表于:2009-02-22 09:59只看该作者
27楼
市场恐惧了
只做英镑/美圆,和暴仓帐户
Never give up
28楼
说来说去还是羊头大哥的意见
现在大家的钱都贬值 无非看谁贬的更多
货币的本质是什么 汇率的本质是什么
谁知道?天知道。
峰峦如聚 波涛如怒 山河表里潼关路
发表于:2009-02-23 04:30只看该作者
30楼
樓主是指非美(包含日元)只是反彈,之後仍要探底,對嗎?
韬客社区www.talkfx.co
31楼
峰峦如聚 波涛如怒 山河表里潼关路
发表于:2009-02-23 12:02只看该作者
33楼
暗物质和暗能量都整出来了嗦:hua: :hua:
亏损让我难过,赢利又容易找不到北啊
发表于:2009-02-23 12:25只看该作者
34楼
謝謝. 下午歐盤買了歐美和澳美, 就先看本周反彈.
韬客社区www.talkfx.co
发表于:2009-02-23 12:32只看该作者
35楼
謝謝, 但不甚明白.
'2008年7月,请注意这个时间。'是2009年7月會歷史重演?小心了!!!
'暗物質'是來自基本面嗎?
韬客社区www.talkfx.co
36楼
08年7月,非美大跌
除此以外 还有一个货币结束了3年的周期
峰峦如聚 波涛如怒 山河表里潼关路
38楼
峰峦如聚 波涛如怒 山河表里潼关路
发表于:2009-02-24 04:34只看该作者
39楼
发表于:2009-02-24 04:36只看该作者
40楼
酒一口一口喝,路一步一步走。步子大了,咔~,容易扯成散黄蛋。
发表于:2009-03-04 09:46只看该作者
41楼
这位高人还在否,多头需要你
做梦梦见吃意大利面,早上醒来发现鞋带没了!