世界最大的债券基金经理Bill Gross对eu的看法 Post By：2008-7-16 0:09:00 Gross Likes Dollar More Than Euro for 1st Time on EU (Bloomberg) -- For three years euro bulls used the prospect of higher interest rates in Europe to justify the currency's 32 percent rally against the dollar. No more. A growing number of the world's biggest investors say a slowdown in the region's economy may be more severe than in the U.S., forcing the European Central Bank to reverse this month's rate increase. By January, the euro will be lower against the dollar, yen and even the pound, according to the median estimate of strategists surveyed by Bloomberg. Bill Gross, manager of the world's biggest bond fund, turned bearish on the euro for the first time since the currency's inception in 1999. ``We might have hit a point where the euro doesn't have a lot to stand on,'' said Emanuele Ravano, co-head of European strategy in London for Gross's Pacific Investment Management Co., which runs the $129 billion Pimco Total Return Fund. ``The euro is ultimately very overvalued. It could be quite a bit lower at some point in time over the next couple of years.'' The euro fell as much as 1.7 percent to $1.5611 in the week following President Jean-Claude Trichet's comments on July 3 that he had ``no bias'' on further changes in borrowing costs after boosting the main refinancing rate to 4.25 percent from 4 percent. Before Trichet spoke the currency traded near a record high on speculation the ECB would signal more than one rate increase was needed to tame inflation. It fell 0.5 percent to $1.5857 as of noon in London today, from $1.5938 on July 11. Hedge Funds Flee As the odds that the ECB will lift rates dwindled, hedge funds sold the 15-nation common currency, according to Zurich- based UBS AG, the world's second-biggest currency trader behind Deutsche Bank AG in Frankfurt. New York-based Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., the fourth-largest U.S. securities firm, said it's ``increasingly confident'' the euro will fall. ``Capital flows look less supportive for the euro and, with the ECB out of the way, the interest-rate policy would also seem to support our view,'' Stephen Hull, a strategist for Lehman in London, wrote in a research note July 11. The euro is 30 percent overvalued versus the dollar, based on purchasing power parity, according to Newport Beach, California-based Pimco. That's more than any other currency among the Group of 10 richest nations. Purchasing power parity accounts for differences in the exchange rates of national currencies. ``When a currency gets between 25 percent and 30 percent overvalued it tends'' to revert to the mean, said Ravano. The euro may drop to $1.535 from $1.5938 last week, he said. Burger Test The Economist's Big Mac Index, which compares prices for the McDonald's Corp. product globally, shows the hamburger is 22 percent more expensive in Europe than in the U.S. ``We're not far off the capitulation point for the euro,'' said Mitul Kotecha, head of foreign-exchange research in London at Calyon, the investment-banking unit of Credit Agricole SA, France's second-biggest bank. The euro will fall to $1.52 by the end of the third quarter and to $1.45 by April 2009, he said. The European single currency's gain since December 2005 was spurred by eight increases in the ECB's key refinancing rate. French President Nicolas Sarkozy complained that the currency's strength was harming the competitiveness of European exporters and risked damaging economic growth. Exports from Germany, Europe's largest economy, declined 3.2 percent in May, the most in almost four years, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said July 9. Gross domestic product in the 15 nations sharing the euro will slow to 1.4 percent in 2009, from 1.7 percent this year, according to the median forecast of 29 economists in a Bloomberg survey. The U.S. economy will grow 1.8 percent next year, from 1.5 percent this year, according to the median of 78 estimates. `Sharp Slowing' There are ``concrete signs of a sharp slowing of euro-zone growth,'' Robert Sinche, head of global currency strategy at Bank of America Corp. in New York, wrote in a note dated July 11. Investors should sell the euro against the dollar, he said. It may be too soon to bet against the euro because the U.S. economy is also slowing, according to Derek Halpenny, head of currency research in London at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd., a unit of Japan's largest bank by market value. The euro will rise to $1.62 by the end of the third quarter, before falling back to $1.58 in the final three months of the year, he said. ``We're bullish on the euro,'' Halpenny said. ``The real story over the next three months is going to be the obvious and continued downturn in the U.S. economy compared to Europe.'' The ECB will cut the key rate a quarter-percentage point to 4 percent by the end of June 2009, according to the median of 30 economists in a Bloomberg survey. The Federal Reserve has lowered its target rate for overnight loans seven times since September to 2 percent. `Incredibly Bearish' ``The rally in the euro is over and we're now incredibly bearish on the currency given the outlook for Europe's economy,'' said Hans-Guenter Redeker, the London-based global head of currency strategy at BNP Paribas SA, the most accurate foreign-exchange forecaster in a 2007 Bloomberg survey. The euro will slide to $1.50 by the end of the third quarter and $1.45 by year-end, he said. Redeker is more bearish than most strategists. The common European currency will weaken 5.4 percent to $1.50 by year-end, and slip to $1.45 by mid-2009, according to the median of 37 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. ``At current levels the euro is an awfully expensive currency,'' said Stephen Jen, chief currency strategist at Morgan Stanley in London and a former Fed economist. ``We see fair value for the currency at around $1.30.''

说的好。:) :) :) :)

说的不错.就是啥都没看懂:M

哪位兄弟，给翻一翻。。。

伯南克真是没招了，手下的看情况不妙，也要使使劲了。;P

总喜欢美元以上的欧元，为第一时间对欧盟 （彭博） -为三年欧元多头使用的前景，较高的利息在欧洲的理由货币的3 2％ ，团结对美元的汇率。没有更多。 越来越多的世界上最大的投资者说放缓，在该地区的经济可能会更严重，比在美国，迫使欧洲央行行长为了扭转这一一个月的加息。由今年1月，欧元将降低对美元，日元，甚至英镑，根据中位数估计的战略家们所调查的彭博。条例草案总，经理，世界上最大的债券基金，转向看跌欧元以来的第一次货币的1999年成立。 他，我们可能有击中的地步，欧元不有很多的立场，表示emanuele ravano ，部联席主管欧洲战略在伦敦为毛额的太平洋投资管理公司，运行一千二百九十〇点零亿美元pimco总返回基金。他欧元，最终是非常超值。它可能相当低一点，在一些时间点，在未来两，三年。 欧元下跌高达1.7 ％ ，至1.5611美元在一周以下总裁特里谢的评论于七月三日，他曾他没有偏见''就进一步的变化，借贷成本增加后，主要再融资利率至4.25 ％ ，从4 ％ 。之前，特里谢以货币交易的近纪录高点就猜测欧洲央行将信号多于一个加息的需要驯服的通货膨胀。它下跌0.5 ％ ，一点五八五七美元截至中午十二时在伦敦的今天，从1.5938美元7月11日。 对冲基金逃离 由于赔率认为，欧洲央行将升息下降，对冲基金出售的15个国家共同货币，据总部设于苏黎世的瑞银，世界第二大的外汇交易背后，德意志银行在法兰克福。总部设在纽约的雷曼兄弟控股公司，第四是美国最大的证券公司，说这是他越来越有信心，指欧元将会下跌。 他的资金流向看少支持为欧元，与欧洲央行出来的方式，利息的利率政策似乎也支持我们的看法， ''斯蒂芬船体，战略家，为李曼兄弟证券在伦敦，在研究报告中写道7月11日。 欧元是30 ％ ，高估兑美元的基础上，购买力平价，根据Newport Beach的，总部设在加州的pimco 。这是比任何其他货币之间的10国集团最富有的国家。购买力平价帐目的差异，汇率的国家货币。 他当一个货币得到之间的25 ％和30 ％的被高估的倾向''回复到的意思，说ravano 。欧元可能会下降到1.535美元从一点五九三八美元上星期，他说。 汉堡测试 经济学家的巨无霸指数，比较价格，为麦当劳公司在全球的产品，显示了汉堡包是22 ％ ，较昂贵，在欧洲比在美国 他我们正在不远处的关闭投降点，为欧元，说mitul kotecha ，主管外汇交易的研究在伦敦，在东方汇理，投资银行股的农业信贷银行股份有限公司，法国的第二大银行。欧元将下降到1.52美元，由第三季度末和1.45美元，由2009年4月，他说。 欧洲单一货币的增益自2005年12月的带动下八的增长，欧洲央行的主要再融资利率。 法国总统尼古拉萨尔科齐抱怨说，货币的实力被损害的竞争力，欧洲出口商和冒着损害经济增长。出口从德国，欧洲最大的经济体，下降3.2 ％ ，今年5月，最近四年来，联邦统计办公室在威斯巴登说， 7月9日。 国内生产总值在15个国家分享，欧元将放缓至1.4 ％ ，到2009年，由1.7 ％ ，今年，根据中位数预测的经济学家29日在彭博的调查。美国经济增长将达到1.8 ％ ，明年起，从1.5 ％ ，今年，根据中位数的78估计。 `急剧放慢' 有他具体的迹象，大幅放缓，欧元区的增长， ''罗伯特sinche ，主管全球货币策略，在美国银行公司在纽约，曾在日照7月11日。投资者应卖出欧元对美元的汇率，他说。 它可能还为时过早打赌，对欧元，因为美国经济也放缓，据德里克halpenny ，头部货币的研究在伦敦的银行三菱东京UFJ银行有限公司，一个单位，日本最大的银行的市场价值。欧元将上升至1.62美元，由第三季度末，前回落至1.58美元，在最后3个月的一年，他说。 他很乐观，对欧元， '' halpenny说。他的真实故事在未来3个月内将会明显和持续低迷，在美国经济相比，欧洲。 欧洲央行将削减主要利率四分之一个百分点至4 ％ ，到去年底2009年6月，根据中位数的30经济学家在彭博的调查。美国联邦储备委员会已调低其目标利率隔夜贷款的7倍， 9月以来，到2 ％ 。 `令人难以置信的看跌' 他在集会上，欧元已经过去，我们现在令人难以置信的看跌货币鉴于展望欧洲的经济，说：汉斯- guenter redeker ，总部设在伦敦的全球外汇分析主管战略的法国巴黎银行股份有限公司，最准确的外汇交易预测，在2007年彭博调查。 欧元将下滑至1.50美元，由第三季度末和1.45美元到今年年底，他说。 redeker更看跌比大多数战略家。共同的欧洲货币将削弱5.4 ％ ，至1.50美元，到今年年底，下滑至1.45美元中，到2009年，根据中位数37调查的分析师彭博。 他在目前的水平，欧元是一种非常昂贵的货币，说：史蒂芬邱义仁，首席外汇策略摩根士丹利在伦敦和前美联储经济学家。他，我们看到的公允价值为货币在1.30美元。

翻译软件翻的,可能某些语句不太中国化,将就看咯:M :M