论坛贴不了PDF格式的附件，只好另存为txt贴上来了。 This report is published every day at 8:30 am ET and distributed to central banks, hedge funds, multinational corporations, pension fund managers and individuals. The report has been produced continuously since June 1990. What’s Happening This Morning: The dollar is soft this morning but the euro has not revisited yesterday’s historic high at 1.3835, although at 1.3830, it’s not a hard target. (A minor dollar- weakening event was the explosion of a 1924 steam pipe in midtown Manhattan. Alarmist engineers have been saying for 40 years that the underground infrastructure of Manhattan needs replacement--this is akin to the earthquake forecast for Tokyo.) We have evidence of contamination to the FX market from the subprime problem as flight-to-quality took the stock market down and the 10-year Treasury up (yield down) after a rumor that Lehman Bros had a worse subprime exposure than thought. Lehman took the trouble to deny the rumor, but its stock fell anyway. Bear, Stearns confirmed that its two subprime hedge funds are worth almost zero. According to the WSJ, an important analyst downgraded eight banks and brokers at the top of the subprime heap and their stocks all fell, too, including Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, Citigroup, BoA, and even JP Morgan Chase--despite good earnings at some of those firms. It remains to be seen whether this is a blip or the start of something big. Bernanke seemed to say yesterday that credit spreads are still reasonable and financing activity remains brisk, so the problem should be limited to the financial sector and not leak over into the broader economy--although it will likely persist over the next few quarters before it strts getting better. The Fed’s expectation of the persistence of the subprime issue impressed Japanese traders, who are torn between wanting to sell the dollar in the event of a more general asset-price meltdown, and wanting to buy it because yield is, after all, yield. This crunch kept the dollar/yen in a narrow and narrowing range between 121.50 and 122.30 for the past two days. In futures we have had a buy signal for about a week but we just can’t bring ourselves to obey it. Technical Notes: See commentary on the charts. The Main Event: The yield on the 10-year note fell to 5.009% on what the market perceived to be a hawkish presentation by Fed chairman Bernanke to Congress. In addition, the various ABX indices,  published by the firm Markit, all fell. According to today’s WSJ story, the triple-B riskiest tranche reached a new low price of 43.5￠ but the better-rated tranches are falling, too. The triple-A tranche fell to 94.75￠ from 95.23￠ the day before and 98.5￠ on July 12. The double-A tranche fell to 85.5￠ from 88.11￠ the day before. As noted far and wide, the market for all this paper is illiquid and nobody really knows the “right” price. Considering the high level of leverage, panic dumping can worsen the situation. The one bright spot is that bargain-hunters must already be circling. Before moving on to Bernanke’s testimony, consider CPI. Headline CPI rose 0.2% m/m and 2.7% y/y in June, each measure about 0.1% higher than expected on a rise in food (despite a drop in energy). Core CPI rose 0.2% and 2.2% y/y, about in line with forecasts, with the pesky “owner equivalent rent” up 0.2% or 3.3% y/y. The core CPI is now at the lowest year-over-year rate of increase in 15 months. Bank of NY economist Woolfolk opines that “While energy prices are expected to continue rising, the dynamics of core inflation suggest further drift below the 2.0% y/y threshold later this summer.” In other news, also released early yesterday were housing starts and building permits, which were confusing. Housing starts rose 2.3% in June to an annualized pace of 1.467 million, more than forecast--but May was revised lower to -2.7%. Building permits fell 7.5% to an annualized pace of 1.406 million. Well, you don’t need a permit in lots of places, so there is not necessarily a disconnect Bernanke’s Testimony: Apart from what Bernanke said about inflation and the Fed’s bias, we were impressed with his attention to the housing market. He admitted the Fed could have been a little more diligent earlier in tightening regulations against subprime abuse and fraud, and promised new measures. This is probably designed to head off Congressional regulations that might strangle the industry. Bernanke defended the sector as allowing the lowest demographic the chance to buy into the American dream of home ownership. Populist Barney Frank beamed. Growth is forecast a little lower than in the Feb outlook, 2.25-2.5% in 2007 and 2.5-2.75% in 2006. As for inflation, WSJ Fed-watcher Ip thinks the newest forecasts indicate the Fed thinks inflation will edge higher over the remainder of 2007. By the end of 2008, inflation will still be 1.75-2%, the same as the Feb forecast, “in part because higher food and energy prices have yet to cause consumers' expectations of inflation to increase.” Inflation remains the “predominant” concern. Ip goes on, “Perhaps the most important new risk Mr. Bernanke cited yesterday was slowing productivity growth. Productivity growth slowed to an annual rate of 1% in the first quarter from 2% in the preceding two years and even higher rates before that. Fed officials have wondered whether this reflected short-term hoarding of workers by companies hit with slower sales, or some more structural change. Mr. Bernanke now believes it is a bit of both. He also appeared to play down another explanation: that productivity data are distorted downward by overstated estimates of construction employment.” Funny, we heard Bernanke say that he expects productivity to rise. Hardly anyone is paying attention to something we think is important--the relationship of energy prices to everything--growth, inflation and the dollar. It’s now accepted widely that as the price of oil rises, the level of the dollar falls in order to keep oil supplier purchasing power in euros steady. This begs the question of supplier price-setting power, but never mind--the inverse relationship is sometimes (if not always) accurate, and it’s relevant today. What Bernanke said yesterday is that the Fed expects energy prices to “level off” and “overall inflation [to] slow to a pace close to that of core inflation in coming quarters.'' He said “With long-term inflation expectations contained, futures prices suggesting that investors expect energy and other commodity prices to flatten out, and pressures in both labor and product markets likely to ease modestly, core inflation should edge a bit lower, on net, over the remainder of this year and next year.'' Well. Are futures prices an unbiased predictor of future prices? No, and Bernanke has to know that. Not  only do we have to price in the cost of carry, we have to consider all the anomalies from behavioral finance--the market may be efficient in the sense that nearly all the news is known by everyone and prices adjust almost instantly, but people are still not fully “rational” and we do get manias and panics. We also get more price moves than we have news events. Bernanke is being tricky here and while he may be fooling Congress, financial markets should be blowing a raspberry to the idea that energy prices are “leveling off” and will restrain US inflation. The only way they will level off is if demand moderates and supply remains the same or goes up--not really likely. We would be much happier with the competence of the Fed if it would just admit that it has a range of forecast outcomes based in part on oil price scenarios. We think oil at $100 is not out of the question--all it will take is one big hurricane--and the Fed seems not to be acknowledging that. Bernanke is less obfuscatory than Greenspan and more willing to be “transparent,” but he has to be keeping some secrets, doesn’t he? Let’s hope a multi-price set of oil scenarios is one of them. Other Markets: The NYMEX crude oil futures contract (Aug) Crude-oil futures rose $1.03 to $75.05 a barrel, with the weekly inventory report showing an unexpected drawdown in gasoline stockpiles. Today it rose as much as 66￠ to $75.71 after Total announced a shutdown in Angola that exempts it from fulfilling contracts (“force majeure”). The US inventory report shows gasoline supplies dropped by 2.24 million barrels last week and motor-fuel imports fell by 36%, despite refineries operating at a 7-week high of 91%. Gasoline demand is at a one-year high. And crude oil inventories fell as expected on higher refinery rates (down 449,000 barrels to 352.1 million barrels), but 13% over the 5-year average. Japan: The Nikkei rose 100.99 points to 18116.57 on news pertaining to domestic stocks. In a rare “analysis” piece for the normally tight-lipped Nihon Keizai Shimbun, the paper reports that a survey of financial market analysts believe the ruling coalition will lose the July 29 upper house election and that will mean an unstable political situation. The coalition will get 57 seats, seven short of the number needed to maintain its majority. Defeat has already been priced into stock, bond and FX prices, the article says. The government will not change policies and the impact will be only temporary. Analysts are more interested in when the BoJ will raise rates and the extent of any US slowdown. But defeat will lower equity price, raise bond yields and have an unknown effect on the yen. It could weaken it (on general uncertainty) or lift it (because it’s undervalued). In economic news, the Japan Department Store Association said June sales rose 5.5% y/y for the first rise in 4 months and the biggest gain since April 1998. We should probably assume the stores are taking a new merchandizing tack after many months of losses to specialty stores. Europe : EC commissioner Almunia said (again) that euro appreciation is not causing any harmful effects on exports and he is opposed to any move to intervene. So far the strength of the export market has outweighed any negative impact of the stronger euro, although going forward there might be concern that dollar and yen weakness is not supported by fundamentals. An EC spokesman also said intervention is not on the table, since euro policy belongs to the ECB “as everyone knows.” In Germany, June PPI rose 0.2% m/m and 1.7% y/y when slightly higher levels had been forecast. But core PPI rose 0.2% m/m and 2.8% y/y from 2.7% in May, which Market News notes is above the CPI at 1.8% and harmonized HICP at 2%. “Aside from energy, therefore, German pipeline inflationary pressure remains significant. This could become even more so the case once favorable oil price base effects fade later in the year or if oil prices continue to rise from their already elevated levels.” Britain: Retail sales rose for a second month in June by 0.2% when 0.3% was forecast and following 0.4% in Mat, perhaps a sign of a modest pullback. Sales were up 3.5% y/y after 3.9% in May. But mortgage lending took a bit hit, reversing the sharp rise in May, with the British Bankers Association reporting June  “underlying mortgage lending” at only ￡5.062 billion from ￡5.828 B in May. June is also down year-over-year, and personal lending eased, too. The mood of the consumer is hard to assess. BoE Gov King said we have to wait and see whether inflation will fall further. The BoE will examine the effect of natural gas prices on CPI. The bank still thinks CPI will come down over the rest of this year. China: As expected, Q2 GDP was reported up 11.9% y/y, the fastest pace in 12 years. (A breezy article Esquire magazine this month says the real growth number is more like 28%, but consider the source.) CPI is up to 4.4%, the highest since Sept 2004, and wildly above the government’s desired cap at 3$ for the 4th month. As reported last week, observers expect the government to lift interest rates and impose additional restrictions to bring inflation down. Goldman Sachs, for one, thinks it take the form of two 27 bp rate hikes before year-end. Nobody can understand how raising interest rates will cut the price of food, which is the main driver of inflation. Bloomberg reports that the yuan rose to the highest level since the one-time reval in Aug ’05 (7.5615), which it calculates is a cumulative 9.4% (Market News gets a different percentage change). O O utlook: We get additional data today and tomorrow (plus another round of Bernanke in the Senate today) but you have to wonder if we don’t already have enough. The Fed will release the June 28 FOMC minutes today. The Conference Board index of leading indicators probably fell a hair (0.1%) in June after rising 0.3% in May, according to the Bloomberg survey. The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index is projected to fall to 13.8 from 18 in June--but remember that the Empire State rose a lot when a drop was forecast. None of this is likely to reverse the negative dollar sentiment that has such a powerful grip today. In fact, it’s hard to imagine what fundamental factor or piece of news could do the trick. Market News wonders out loud whether it might be Trichet saying the euro move is “brutal,” which has worked in the past--but the recent trend of official European official commentary is that a strong euro is a reflection of well-earned economic robustness--and not a problem for growth, even in the export sector. It would therefore be quite a switch for Trichet to start talking the euro down at this point--someday, maybe, but probably not until we see the whites of 1.40’s eyes, and maybe more. As noted above, we are disappointed in Bernanke--his presentation seems divorced from reality. Yes, the Fed has to show a steady hand and can never been seen as alarmist, but Bernanke could have been more specific on why the subprime problem will not spread and he certainly could have done better on the energy problem. Net-net, the Fed looks like it’s on hold pretty much forever, and with all the other problems facing the US, good news goes unremarked. It would take a mountain of good news to overwhelm the negativity from a central bank on hold. We think it’s only a question of time as to the next “impulse” move higher for everything against the dollar. Traders seem reluctant today, but in the absence of a motivating incentive to trigger a correction, it’s the only deduction possible. As usual in a downtrend, good news (like a high capita linflow) is devalued, while bad news is exaggerated. Even a terrorist attack in Europe would fall on the dollar.

晕哦，没一个人回贴啊！这个分析报告一般是看不着的，是要付费的。

呵呵，看不懂怎么回。

这个是在哪里找的？能透露一下否？

吃过消夜刚回来看见你贴,真要感谢! 这就慢慢看. :hua:

我在国会作证时看到了,我说看不懂,他们去请翻译了:lol

谁给翻一下，好像大概的意思是现在这个位置比较合理！！！

由Rockefeller财经服务公司所提供的刊物Daily Currency Briefing，是许多投资人奉为圭臬的投资参考资讯。该公司的创办人是Barbara Rockefeller。The report applies both fundamentals and technicals. The fundamentals are written by a professional business economist, the author of The Global Trader and CNBC 24/7--Trading Around the Clock, Around the World. The technicals are done by the author of Technical Analysis for Dummies.

好事做到底，我把今天的下载地址贴给大家看吧。 http://rs6.net/tn.jsp?t=a99vjccab.0.tm5wjccab.l69umwbab.14612&ts=S0261&p=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.rts-forex.com%2Fpdf%2Fmaple.pdf 明天的是： http://rs6.net/tn.jsp?t=a99vjccab.0.um5wjccab.l69umwbab.14612&ts=S0261&p=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.rts-forex.com%2Fpdf%2Foak.pdf 注意要晚上八点半后才能下当天的。

谢谢分享！！！

把我在另一个坛子里贴的转到这里，英文不好的结合Babylon看： 实现Babylon在Acrobat 8.0中取词 最近因为要修改PDF，因此就用Adobe Acrobat3D 8.0来查看PDF了，却发现Babylon不能在PDF文档里取词，因为我每天都要看Rockefeller Strategic Currency Briefing，于是寻思着解决，在Babylon安装目录C:\Program Files\Babylon\Babylon-Pro\Utils下找到了一个名为BabylonRPI.api的文件，将它拷贝到Adobe Acrobat 3D 8.0安装目录C:\Program Files\Adobe\Acrobat 8.0\Acrobat\plug_ins下，重新打开Acrobat和Babylon，就可以了。 另外，Babylon还自带OCR优化取词，即可以通过OCR技术查询图片中的文字的意思。英文原文如下： OCR Optimization setting. To recognize terms on screen, Babylon 6 runs an optimization mechanism for “learning” your computer’s system. If the optimization target level is set to Low, Babylon will not perform the optimization, and may not recognize a word as a result. If the level is set to High, Babylon will perform all possible optimizations, but will take longer and use CPU resources while “learning”. OCR优化设置。为了认别屏幕上的词语，Babylon 6运行了优化结构来“学习”你的计算机系统。如果优化目标水平设置较低，Babylon将不执行优化，可能因此不能认别出词语。如果优化水平设置在高位，Babylon将执行所有可能的优化，但是在“学习”时将花费更多的时间和占用更多的CPU资源。 很久不在这里发贴了，希望这个贴子在有需要时能被别人用Google检索到。 关键词：Babylon PDF Acrobat 取词 OCR

楼主能每天发一份么?

从这个主页上http://www.rts-forex.com/ 只找到了2周的免费版本！如何从这个主页链接进去看每天的汇评？

只要我能得到，我就发吧。有需要的最好PM我留下EMAIL地址，我每周一把收到的email转发一下。里面有下载地址，这样比较好一点儿。

这是要收费的，因为我所做的那家的一个经纪公司跟Rockefeller财经服务公司有合作，经纪公司希望通过提供有价值的服务来拉客人。那个文件名是随机的，要等到周一才知道本周的五篇分析报告的下载地址。

so complex

顶一下搂住！！！

EMAIL已发送，请查收。

good!